Turkish President Abdullah Gul's four-day visit to the Russian Federation from
February 12 to 15 marked the flourishing multidimensional relations between the
two countries. Gul met Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin, and other officials and also traveled to Kazan, the capital of
Tatarstan, where he discussed joint investments.
Gul was accompanied by Kursad Tuzmen, the state minister responsible for
foreign trade, and Minister of Energy Hilmi Guler, as well as a large
delegation of Turkish businessmen. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan joined the
delegation for part of the trip.
The Russian side elevated Gul's trip from the previously
announced status of an "official visit" to a "state visit", the highest level
of state protocol, indicating the value Moscow attaches to Turkey. Gul and
Medvedev signed a joint declaration announcing their commitment to deepening
mutual friendship and multi-dimensional cooperation. The declaration mirrors a
previous "Joint Declaration on the Intensification of Friendship and
Multidimensional Partnership," signed during a landmark visit by then-president
Putin in 2004.
Turkish-Russian economic ties have flourished over the past decade, with trade
volume reaching US$32 billion in 2008, making Russia Turkey's number one
partner. Given this background, bilateral economic ties were quite naturally a
major item on Gul's agenda and both leaders expressed their satisfaction with
the growing commerce between their countries.
Cooperation in energy is the major area of mutual economic activity. Turkey's
gas and oil imports from Russia account for most of the trade volume. Russian
press reports indicate that the two sides are interested in improving
cooperation in energy transportation lines carrying Russian gas to European
markets through Turkey.
Moreover, Russia is playing a major part in Turkey's attempts to diversify its
energy sources. Cooperation in nuclear energy is particularly important in
light of Turkey's plans to introduce nuclear power. A Russian-led consortium
won the tender for the construction of Turkey's first nuclear plant; but since
the price the consortium offered for electricity was above world prices, the
future of the project, which is awaiting parliamentary approval, remains
unclear. Prior to Gul's visit to Moscow, the Russian consortium submitted a
revised offer, reducing the price by 30%. If this revision is found legal under
the tender rules, the positive mood during Gul's trip may indicate the Turkish
government is ready to finally give the go-ahead for the project.
The Russian market also plays a major role for Turkish overseas investments and
exports. Russia is one of the main customers for Turkish construction firms and
a major destination for Turkish exports. Similarly, millions of Russian
tourists bring significant revenues to Turkey every year.
Nonetheless, a huge trade imbalance in Russia's favor due to Turkey's heavy
dependence on Russian gas and oil continues to be a major concern for the
Turkish side. Despite commitments to fix the trade imbalance made during
Putin's 2004 visit, the gap is still there. So far the only news that might
indicate action on this front is that the two sides may start to use the
Turkish lira and the Russian rouble in foreign trade, which might increase
Turkish exports to Russia.
Other economic issues causing problems in Turkish-Russian commercial relations
were also addressed. Ankara is particularly disturbed by difficulties
encountered by Turkish goods at the Russian border. In response to Gul's
request for help on that issue, Medvedev reiterated the Russian position that
strict inspection rules on trucks were being applied to all countries and
Turkey was not specifically discriminated against. Nonetheless, he suggested
the establishment of a joint technical delegation to examine the issue. The
parties had already agreed in September to simplify customs procedures and the
new delegation might contribute to those efforts.
A large part of Gul's visit concerned the development of political ties between
the two countries. Both leaders repeated the position that, as the two major
powers in the area, cooperation between Russia and Turkey was essential to
regional peace and stability. Noting he had held fruitful and sincere contacts
with his Russian counterparts, Gul said, "Russia and Turkey are neighboring
countries that are developing their relations on the basis of mutual
confidence. I hope this visit will in turn give a new character to our
relations."
The Russians praised Turkey's diplomatic initiatives in the region. Medvedev
particularly emphasized his satisfaction with Turkey's actions during the
Russian-Georgian war last summer and Turkey's subsequent proposal for the
establishment of a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). Medvedev
said the August crisis had demonstrated not only the need for coordination
among regional countries to address local challenges, but also their ability to
deal with such problems on their own without the involvement of outside powers.
Medvedev was clearly referring to the exclusion of the United States from
attempts to solve regional problems. Indeed, the ease with which Turkey went
ahead with the CSCP, bypassing Washington and not seeking transatlantic
consensus on Russia, prompted international and Turkish observers to question
Turkey's place in the West. Since then, attention has been focused on Turkey's
determination to follow an independent foreign policy.
Economic dependence on Russia, however, reduces Ankara's autonomy and options
with regard to Russia in diplomatic affairs. During the Russia-Georgia war,
this asymmetric dependence forced Turkey to follow an acquiescent policy toward
Moscow. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan acknowledged that dependence on
Russia had tied Turkey's hands.
This dependence apparently did not bother Turkey very much. Following Gul's
visit, some have even described Turkish-Russian relations as a "strategic
partnership", a label traditionally used for Turkish-American relations.
Ankara's balancing act between the two major powers will be tested when
controversial issues such as Russian plans for building a missile shield come
onto the agenda.
Saban Kardas is an associate instructor at the Political Science
Department, University of Utah, USA.
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