Ankara approves Nabucco after Moscow visit By Saban Kardas
Turkey has reportedly finally given the green light to the Nabucco gas pipeline
project, and the intergovernmental agreement might be signed on July 13. When
the news broke on the Russian deal with Azerbaijan for the sale of offshore
Azerbaijani gas to Russia's Gazprom, the Turkish media initially suggested it
represented a lethal blow to Nabucco. Partly as a result of the Russian media's
manipulation, it was interpreted as a negative development to undermine the
viability of Nabucco [which will supply gas, mainly from Azerbaijan, to Europe
via Turkey].
On July 1-2, the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Moscow to
meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Before his departure, Davutoglu
said that Turkey was unconcerned about the gas deal between Moscow and Baku and
supported enhanced
cooperation between its neighbors. Davutoglu maintained that growing regional
cooperation, especially in energy, will benefit everyone in the region.
Energy Minister Taner Yildiz made a similar point, arguing that the different
projects are not alternatives and choosing one does not necessarily mean
foregoing another. Yildiz added that the Russian-Azeri agreement would not
affect Turkish-Azeri talks on the re-negotiation of the price for Turkey's gas
imports from the Shah Deniz-I gas field, and the country's future imports from
Shah Deniz-II.
In Moscow, Davutoglu held talks on bilateral relations as well as regional
security issues. During their joint press briefing, Davutoglu emphasized that
Turkey and Russia have developed close economic, commercial, cultural and
political ties, while both countries could solve their differences through
dialogue. Davutoglu told reporters that, though the date was not set, Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would visit Turkey in the near future. Lavrov
also underlined that the approaches of the two countries toward regional and
global problems overlap.
Asked about the possibility of Turkey's cooperation with Russia in the South
Stream project, Davutoglu said: "There are no limitations and barriers on
Russian-Turkish cooperation. We decided to consider all projects, including
alternative energy projects. Therefore, I want to express our readiness to
collaborate with Russia on South Stream or other projects in a transparent
manner." Responding to the same question, Lavrov said that if Turkey decided to
join the project, the Russian side would prepare the necessary groundwork. He
added that the Turkish energy minister will discuss the details with the
Russian officials.
Yildiz also visited Moscow at the same time, at the invitation of the Russian
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. As the co-chairs of the joint
Turkish-Russian economic council, Yildiz and Sechin discussed bilateral
economic relations. Yildiz raised issues relating to Turkish investors
operating in Russia, particularly the "customs crisis". Cooperation in energy
issues occupied a large part of Yildiz's itinerary. Energy-related topics
included the Russian offer to build the Blue Stream II pipeline beneath the
Black Sea, the current status of Turkey's first nuclear power plant tender,
which was awarded to a Russian consortium, preliminary negotiations for
additional gas purchases from Russia, and the South Stream pipeline project.
Sechin told Yildiz that Moscow has studied the feasibility of various possible
projects to diversify energy supplies to Europe. He claimed that South Stream
outperforms Nabucco in terms of its efficiency and economic feasibility, and
invited Turkey to join the project. In particular, he claimed that Russia has
enough proven gas reserves to feed South Stream. Nonetheless, the Russian
delegation did not elaborate any specific role envisaged for Turkey in South
Stream, which in its current form would not cross Turkish territory.
Yildiz repeated Ankara's frequent argument that Nabucco and South Stream are
not necessarily competitors: "This is a strategic package. It includes
important projects that concern the two countries, our regions and our
neighbors." The Turkish government will evaluate all offers on the table, and
choose the project that satisfies both countries' interests, Yildiz added.
These developments led to speculation that Nabucco was in crisis. On his return
to Turkey, Yildiz dismissed Russian media reports that Moscow asked Ankara to
withdraw from Nabucco. Moreover, Yildiz said that the negotiations on Nabucco
were well advanced and the parties were close to signing a deal, though
avoiding specifying a date. He added that the talks were being carried out by
the foreign ministry and prime minister's office.
On the same day, European Commission officials announced that Turkey extended
an invitation to its Nabucco partners to attend a ceremony in Ankara to sign
the long-delayed intergovernmental agreement on July 13. The commission
spokesman and Nabucco officials provided no further details as to whether
Turkish demands were met to ensure its supply security, especially the
controversial 15% clause, which had been stalling the negotiations. Under this
clause, Turkey would get 15% of natural gas to be carried through the Nabucco
pipeline.
Davutoglu flew from Moscow to Bucharest at the invitation of his Romanian
counterpart Cristian Diaconescu, where he met the Romanian president and other
officials. He discussed bilateral partnerships and regional cooperation in the
Black Sea. After emphasizing the flourishing ties between the two countries,
Davutoglu praised their cooperation in the context of the Nabucco project - the
pipeline would run through Romania. Though he noted that Nabucco and South
Stream were not mutually exclusive, Davutoglu maintained "Nabucco is a
strategic project for us. This will continue to remain our main priority". [In
May, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko and Gazprom vice-president
Aleksandr Medvedev proposed to examine the possibility of building a section of
the South Stream pipeline through Romanian territory. The planned route takes
the pipeline through Serbia, to Romania's west.]
Both Davutoglu and Yildiz declined to set a date but affirmed that the
intergovernmental agreement will be signed soon. Sources close to Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's office, however, reportedly confirmed that the
government plans to hold a ceremony on July 13. If the schedule of the heads of
state from the other Nabucco partners, Bulgaria, Romania, Austria and Hungary
permits, then the agreement will be signed in Ankara.
What led to this turnaround in Turkey's position and whether it secured
concessions from its partners will be clarified if Ankara hosts the
intergovernmental agreement next week. However, the recent heavy diplomatic
traffic, combined with Erdogan's earlier contacts in Brussels, shows the extent
to which Turkey wants to maximize its political and commercial gains by pitting
the rival pipeline projects against each other.
Saban Kardas is an associate instructor at the Political Science
Department, University of Utah, USA.
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