Tajik harvests left high and dry
By Farangis Najibullah
Like many other farmers in the remote village of Barchid, lying in the shadow
of Tajikistan's Pamir Mountains, Makbulsho Yakinshoev knows little about issues
such as greenhouse-gas emissions or global warming.
But the 65-year-old Tajik farmer knows what he sees, and for years he has seen
his fruit and vegetable harvests decline as the glacier that looms above his
village retreats.
"In the past, I used to sell 50 to 100 kilograms of tomatoes and cucumbers.
It's my main source of income. Last year I had barely any harvest," Yakinshoev
says. He used to be able to send five sacks of potatoes and carrots to his two
children, who study in
Dushanbe, for the winter, but this year he could send them only one.
Over the years, Yakinshoev has observed many changes in Barchid, which is some
3,000 meters above sea level and depends on a glacier of the same name for
irrigation and drinking water. In the past decade, "it seems that the winter
seasons have become warmer and the summer months much cooler and shorter than
before," Yakinshoev says. "Summer is over before my tomatoes turn red, and the
shortage of water is harming the potato crop."
Yakinshoev isn't the only one noticing. Scientists in Tajikistan and abroad
link the water shortages, the cooler summer seasons, and the increasingly
warmer winters to climate change. "In the past, the impacts of global warming
were more evident in the valleys," says Haqnazar Oghonazarov, director of
Tajikistan's Pamir Biological Institute. "But now we are witnessing very
obvious signs of climate change in the mountains, too, thousands of meters
above sea level."
Suffering from change
Statistically, Tajikistan is not considered a major contributor to climate
change. The country ranks 109th in the world in terms of greenhouse-gas
emissions, and 129th in emissions per capita, according to a recent report by
Oxfam International. The country's 7 million people emit fewer than a tonne of
carbon dioxide per person every year, compared to nearly 20 tonnes per capita
by North Americans.
However, it is one of countries hit hardest by climate change, according to
non-governmental organizations focused on reducing poverty and its causes. A
recent Oxfam report, titled "Reaching Tipping Point? Climate Change And Poverty
In Tajikistan", warned that shrinking glaciers and extreme weather conditions
could erode food security over the next four decades in Tajikistan. It's a
scenario that could have dire consequences if not addressed in time: the loss
of flora and fauna, outmigration, and even regional instability.
According to data cited by Oxfam, Tajikistan has seen a temperature rise of
1.0-1.2 degrees Celsius from 1940-2000, while 20% of its more than 8,000
glaciers have retreated. Some have disappeared completely.
Drought in the country, in which nearly two-thirds of agricultural production
depends on irrigation, has become common. Before good rains broke the cycle in
2009, Tajikistan endured three consecutive drought years. During those years,
the country's water supply was dependent on glacier melt to the tune of 80%
during the summer months; in normal seasons melting glaciers would supply
around 10-20% of the water that flows through the country's rivers.
Temperatures have explored extreme limits: 2008 was one of the coldest winters
on record, with temperatures reaching minus 40 degrees Celsius and contributing
to crop losses.
Shrinking glaciers
Scientists predict that droughts will be ever more frequent in the coming
years. Oxfam says that in addition to those that have already retreated or
melted, up to 30% of Tajikistan's glaciers will shrink or disappear completely
by 2050.
The Fedchenko Glacier, in central Badakhshan province some 80 kilometers to the
north of Barchid, provides one of the most alarming examples. Sitting 6,500
meters above sea level and covering 700 square kilometers, the world's longest
glacier outside the polar regions is melting at a rate of 16-20 meters a year.
Oghonazarov of the Pamir Biological Institute says that overall, "glaciers, the
treasure troves of water, are getting increasingly thinner and smaller. The
amount of water coming from glaciers is diminishing. In the past, spring waters
in each village were enough to cover our local irrigation needs. Now there's an
obvious water deficit in our villages."
Meanwhile, the rivers' water volumes have fallen considerably because of the
shrinking glaciers.
High and dry
Considering that Tajikistan's glaciers feed some 50% of the rivers in Central
Asia, any drop in the water supply could have severe implications across the
entire region. Water resources have already been a source of disagreement
between the region's upstream countries, such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and
downstream Uzbekistan. Dwindling water supplies could bring a rise in tensions.
There are enormous economic issues at stake. Tajikistan hopes to boost its
bankrupt economy and resolve its longstanding energy crisis by drawing on its
immense wealth of rivers to generate hydroelectric power. Any drop in water
volumes could put the country's plans to become an energy exporter in jeopardy.
It's not only people who stand to suffer from climate change. Oghonazarov says
many rare species of animals and plants could face extinction. "I can speak in
concrete numbers. In the recent past, there were, on average, 10-15 wild plants
per square meter. Now, that number has decreased by 20-25%," he says. "Around
residential areas, the amount of grass and plants - the primary source of food
for grazing animals - has decreased by up to 40% due to water shortages."
Tajikistan has stationed dozens of scientists in Badakhshan to monitor the
effects of climate change to the area's flora and fauna. They keep a close eye
on melting glaciers, but stopping or reducing the pace of climate change is
beyond their control.
Oghonazarov says that all Tajikistan can do is to adapt itself to new
realities. "We are trying to find other alternatives for local farming -
vegetables that require less water or can survive water shortages," he says.
The Pamir Biological Institute is preparing a manual for local farmers offering
them advice on how to adapt to climate change. "It's not an easy task, though,"
the institute's director says.
Yakinshoev, in the meantime, is running low on food to get his family through
the end of this winter, and is already anxious about the coming farming season.
"I used to work as a carpenter during the Soviet times," he says. "But I had to
change my occupation and take up farming because the money I got from my
previous job was no longer enough to support my family."
Now, the elderly farmer admits he has considered changing his occupation once
again. But considering his age and the rampant unemployment in the country,
Yakinshoev fears it might be too late.
RFE/RL's Tajik Service correspondent in Khorog, Mirzojalol Shohjamol,
contributed to this report.
Copyright (c) 2010, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
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