Many people wouldn't know that former United States president Ronald Reagan's
signature phrase "trust, but verify" is actually the translation of a Russian
proverb - doveryai, no proveryai. Two decades into the post-Cold War
era, Moscow wants to reclaim the self-contradictory phrase from the American
repertoire and apply it to Russia's "reset" of ties with the United States.
The shellacking that US President Barack Obama received in the mid-term
elections to congress, WikiLeaks disclosures about the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) plans to defend against "possible Russian aggression", the
announcement of the US decision to deploy an air force detachment at Lask Air
Base in Poland, the belligerent speech last week by Senator John McCain calling
into question the entire philosophy behind the reset with
Russia - these have created a sense of disquiet in Moscow.
Unsurprisingly, the message that comes out of the summit meeting of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow on Saturday is that
Moscow wants its own alliance to be further strengthened as a "key element in
ensuring the security in the post-Soviet space" and its image to be enhanced
globally. CSTO comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The mid-term elections in the US would leave Russia, like many other countries,
wondering whether pinning hopes on Obama's capacity to deliver on the "reset"
isn't, in fact, supposing a lot. McCain's speech at the Johns Hopkins School of
Advanced International Studies last Friday signals that the reset is most
certainly going to run into stiff opposition from the Republican-dominated
congress.
McCain questioned the very need of reset when "Russia is becoming less and less
capable of being a global, great power partner with the US"; when American and
Russian interests mostly diverge; when they don't have any shared values; when
the Russian political system is "unresponsive and predatory" presided over by a
"quasi-criminal ruling syndicate" that "steals from, lies to, and assaults its
own citizens with virtual immunity".
Citing continuing disagreements with Russia on missile defenses in Europe,
Russia's overwhelming superiority in tactical nuclear weapons and differing
approaches to open energy markets, McCain called on the Obama administration to
be "more assertive in the defense of our interests and values" and to link
Russia's admission to the World Trade Organization with its adherence to the
rule of law.
The contrived bonhomie at the NATO summit in Lisbon last month has all but
dissipated. Meanwhile, the WikiLeaks disclosures put a question mark on NATO's
sincerity in a "reset" with Russia. According to US diplomatic cables, NATO
drew up plans in January to defend the Baltic states against possible Russian
military aggression and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wanted that the
plans be kept secret from Moscow.
Moscow says these plans were approved at the Lisbon summit even as the alliance
declared that it sought a "true strategic partnership" with Russia based on
shared security interests and the need to address "common challenges, jointly
identified".
Moscow is annoyed. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "With one hand NATO...
negotiated with us some important documents that were aimed at a joint
partnership, and with the other hand took behind our backs decisions about the
need for defense against us... We have posed these questions and we expect to
get answers. I presume we have the right to do so."
Equally, following talks in Washington on Wednesday between Obama and visiting
Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski, the two countries announced an
enhancement of their defense ties in the spirit of the 2008 US-Polish
Declaration on Strategic Cooperation, which includes cooperation between the
two air forces and the establishment of a US air detachment in Poland.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted, linking the US-Polish decision with the
WikiLeaks disclosure and the deployment in 2009 of Patriot air defense systems
in Poland, "The true purpose of which also raises questions." Ironically,
Komorowski hosted Medvedev in Warsaw just before proceeding to Washington. That
was the first visit by a Russian leader to Poland in 10 years and the Western
media lauded it as an historic turnaround in European security.
Moscow said: "It seems we are witnessing an old reflex of NATO triggered to
build up power to the detriment of other countries' security - all the more odd
that all this happens after the positive outcome of the Russia-NATO council
summit and the alliance's declarations that Russia is not regarded as an
adversary... we [Russia] will be forced to consider the US-Polish plans as we
implement our own programs for building armed forces and in work with our
allies."
Thus, the CSTO summit in Moscow on Saturday took place against a complicated
political backdrop. Originally, the agenda was to focus on improving the
alliance's crisis response mechanism "in order to enhance the CSTO potential
for responding to security threats and challenges".
Simply put, the CSTO was virtually prevented by Uzbekistan from intervening in
the crisis in Kyrgyzstan in June and an informal summit of the alliance in
Yerevan in August had mandated that changes should be made in the statutes of
the CSTO "to improve the efficiency... in the field of emergency response".
Interestingly, Moscow has met with success in persuading Tashkent to go along
with the revision of the CSTO statutes and Uzbek President Islam Karimov
attended the summit meeting on Saturday.
The summit endorsed a declaration on cooperation in the international arena.
Moscow is clearly interested in enhancing the role of the CSTO at the
international level as a counter to NATO's self-projection at its Lisbon summit
as the only global security organization. It also decided on a collective
peacekeeping force and on undertaking "out-of-area" operations on the pattern
that NATO is doing in Afghanistan.
Thus, CSTO member countries have expressed a willingness to not only carry
peacekeeping tasks but also "provide on certain terms, these collective
peacekeeping forces for operations that are being conducted by decision of the
UN Security Council". The Moscow summit put emphasis on "foreign policy
coordination" among the CSTO member countries similar to NATO's system.
Clearly, the CSTO has factored in the outcome of NATO's Lisbon summit.
Uzbekistan's participation in the summit on Saturday strengthens Moscow's
hands. A distinct cooling is apparent in relations between Uzbekistan and the
US. Clinton, during her visit to Tashkent on December 2, publicly rebuked the
Uzbek government. She said Uzbekistan should "translate words into practice" to
improve its human-rights situation.
Addressing a group of non-governmental organization leaders in Tashkent,
Clinton said, "I urged him [Karimov] to demonstrate his commitment through a
series of steps, to ensure that human rights and fundamental freedoms are truly
protected in this country." Clinton revealed she took up with Karimov the
issues of restrictions on religious freedom, torture and child labor in
Uzbekistan. "We raise these issues... and will continue to make improvement of
human rights in Uzbekistan an integral part of expanding our bilateral
relationship."
Washington has reason to be displeased with Tashkent. Karimov teamed up with
Russia to smother the US move to introduce the Organization of Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as the provider of security in Central Asia. More
important, Tashkent has turned openly critical of the US's war strategy in
Afghanistan.
At the OSCE summit in Astana on December 1 (which Karimov failed to attend),
Uzbek Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov lambasted the OSCE and its structures for
a "failure to play a positive role in the prevention and neutralization of the
bloody events" in Kyrgyzstan in June. It was an indictment of Washington's
attempt to pitchfork the OSCE into Kyrgyzstan as a substitute for the CSTO in
the region.
Even more direct was Norov's criticism of Obama's surge strategy. "It is
becoming ever clearer that there is no military solution to the Afghan problem
and that the settlement strategy chosen by the coalition forces is not
rendering the expected results."
Norov reiterated Tashkent's proposal to find alternative solutions for a
peaceful settlement in Afghanistan through multilateral talks under the UN
aegis. He said: "The context of the Uzbek initiative is based on the
recognition that internal Afghan affairs must be resolved by the Afghan people
with assistance from countries whose security interests include bringing an end
to the war and promoting stability in Afghanistan." He stressed that talks
should be held with "all major opposing sides".
In sum, what emerges from the CSTO summit are the following. First, there is an
unspoken but underlying suspicion in Moscow regarding NATO's intentions. This
apprehension translates as a new determination to build up the CSTO as a rival
organization that challenges NATO's bid to project itself into the post-Soviet
space and its claim to be the sole global security organization.
Second, Central Asian countries are deeply concerned over the deteriorating
situation in Afghanistan and the failure of the US's war strategy. They look up
to Moscow as a guarantor of regional security. This has translated as the
readiness to beef up the CSTO's rapid deployment force and to streamline the
decision-making processes within the alliance to meet emergencies or crisis
situations.
Third, US's intentions in Afghanistan are far from transparent and an
open-ended American military presence is in the cards. The picture remains hazy
as to the exact ground situation developing on Afghanistan's border with
Tajikistan. Indeed, US intelligence has had covert dealings with Central Asian
militants operating out of Afghanistan and there is great wariness among
Central Asia countries with regard to the US's democracy project in the region.
Fourth, the Moscow summit paid much attention to the CSTO's activities in the
fields of law enforcement, border security and military policy. The CSTO's
readiness to play a role in Afghanistan in the post-2014 scenario is
self-evident. Afghan President Hamid Karzai is visiting Moscow next week. The
CSTO is also moving in the direction of forging links with Pakistan with regard
to countering drug trafficking.
Finally, the Moscow summit focused on enhancing the CSTO's foreign policy role.
This has factored in US attempts to accentuate intra-Central Asian differences
and play the role of a diplomatic spoiler to undercut the Moscow-led
integration processes in the region. It becomes necessary for the CSTO member
countries to coordinate their foreign policy if they are to undertake
peacekeeping operations in global hotspots. The CSTO is emulating NATO's
culture.
In sum, Russia trusts the need for a "reset" in ties with NATO, but is under
compulsion to "verify" its sincerity. As Lavrov put it, "serious questions
arise" out of the contradictory tendencies in NATO's posturing toward Russia.
Moscow decided to keep the CSTO as an effective counter-alliance - just in case
McCain's school of thinking gains ground in Washington.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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