Al-Qaeda hand in Moscow attack?
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - As of Tuesday, no one had claimed responsibility for Monday's
apparent suicide bombing at Moscow's Domodedovo international airport that
killed at least 35 people and injured another 180. Previous attacks in Russia
have been blamed on Chechen militants.
Muslim separatists have also staged numerous attacks in Russia's North Caucasus
republic of Dagestan and beyond - including the 2010 subway suicide attack in
Moscow in which 40 people died.
Monday's attack could also fit into al-Qaeda's regional battle to reopen the
war theater of the Caucuses, that is, to spread the
battle focused in southern Afghanistan to the north of that country and beyond.
Chechen, Uzbek, Chinese and Tajik Islamists living in Afghanistan at the time
of the Taliban's fall in late 2001 in the face of the United States-led
invasion retreated to the Pakistani tribal areas, along with al-Qaeda. This
resulted in a strong nexus between al-Qaeda and these opposition forces in
their respective countries, but al-Qaeda's shura (council) only turned
this connection into a strategy one-and-a-half years ago when it decided to
train these Islamists. See
Pakistan roots to Moscow attack? Asia Times Online March 31, 2010 and
Ilyas Kashmiri strategy behind Dagestan blasts Asia Times Online April
2, 2010.
Al-Qaeda's decision to fire the Central Asian and Russian war theater followed
their resolve to strengthen their position in the northern Afghan provinces of
Baghlan and Kunduz, situated on the fringes of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, so
that the insurgency could take strong root there before crossing the border.
Al-Qaeda's involvement with the Taliban, whose sporadic attacks were taking the
insurgency nowhere in the northern regions, changed the insurgency's dynamics
to such an extent that it has become a serious threat to the Afghan
administration, especially in its sanctuaries in Baghlan and Kunduz.
Subsequently, al-Qaeda-affiliated groups like Jundallah launched well-trained
Uzbek, Chechen and Tajik fighters into northern Afghanistan to expand the
constituency of the insurgency from Pashtuns to the Uzbek and Tajik populations
of the area. (See Asia Times Online's three part report
Northern lights.)
The ripple effects are already being felt in areas of Central Asia. According
to a recent report, a wide-ranging crackdown on religious freedom is underway
in Tajikistan, with the authorities closing mosques and harassing men with
beards. Another report says:
With ethnic tensions still simmering from
a 1990s civil war and the continued presence of the Taliban on the ex-Soviet
state's southern border, the Tajik authorities have recently mounted their own
campaign against believers. With increasing alarm, they have been watching more
and more young men attend mosques - and fewer and fewer of them sit around
squares and restaurants sipping beer.
In a Twitter message,
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev vowed to track down and punish those
responsible for the Moscow airport attack. "Security will be strengthened at
large transport hubs," he wrote. "We mourn the victims of the terrorist attack
at Domodedovo airport. The organizers will be tracked down and punished."
This might be more difficult than imagined. This could be the beginning of a
new shadowy battle in the Russian Federation and Central Asia involving human
missiles - suicide bombers. Al-Qaeda is adept at using indigenous people, such
as the ever-growing number of militants and "martyrs".
Starting in July, the United States will begin a troop withdrawal in
Afghanistan and attempt to engage regional players such as India, Russia and
the Central Asian Republics in Afghanistan. By that time, the war could already
have been significantly extended to the home of these new partners.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and
author of upcoming book Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban, beyond 9/11 published
by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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