Qubay Ortiqov is a farmer from Karakalpakstan, a remote region in the Central
Asian state of Uzbekistan. "We have planted cotton with expectations, but we
cannot irrigate it. Right now we're supposed to have finished the second stage
of irrigation, but we haven't been able to do it," Ortiqov said, adding that he
had lost 20 hectares of cotton.
Shepherds were also suffering, Ortiqov said, with animals not able to find
enough to eat. There wasn't even enough water to grow
wheat. "We planted wheat but the harvest was not good, and it was because of
insufficient water."
Ortiqov is one of hundreds of thousands of people in the region who depend
directly on water from the Amu Darya River not only for irrigation, but also
for personal use. According to Ortiqov, the situation is only getting worse.
"This is the third time during the last 10 years that the flow of water has
been this low in the Amu Darya," he said. "Things are only getting worse here,
and because of this people are abandoning the village."
Earlier this month, the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) released a
report on the situation in the Amu Darya Basin. The report criticizes Central
Asian governments for failing to agree on ways to cooperate on water
management. Unless they can find a way to coordinate their effort, the report
concludes, the future does not look bright for farmers like Ortiqov.
Mighty river spread thin
The Amu Darya - known in the past as the Oxus - has not always been like this.
For most of its history it has been praised for its richness and fertility. The
region's writers have even written love poems to the river.
The upper reaches of the Amu Darya form part of Afghanistan's northern border
with Tajikistan. Elsewhere it marks part of the boundary between Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan. Originating from various water sources in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
and Afghanistan, the Amu Darya flows northwest to its mouth on the southern
shore of the Aral Sea. At 2,540 kilometers in length, the Amu Darya is the
longest river in Central Asia.
When the Soviets controlled the region, they established a network of water
pumps and irrigation canals to boost the region's agriculture. Until 1992, the
entire region's water resources were managed by a centralized system based in
Moscow. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, however, the situation has
deteriorated rapidly.
Since then, the population of the region has more than doubled, as has the
demand for water. The economies of Central Asian countries are heavily
dependent on farming. The agricultural sector employs 67% of the labor force in
Tajikistan, 45% in Uzbekistan, and 48% in Turkmenistan.
Regional disputes, distrust
As demand increases and the volume of water in the river continues to shrink,
disputes among the stakeholders over water management are becoming more and
more complicated.
Tajikistan's foreign minister, Hamrokhon Zarifi, told journalists at a July 18
press conference in Dushanbe that "differences of opinion" regarding the river
were affecting the nature of overall relations between Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan, and have not improved.
At the center of their disagreement lies Tajikistan's plan to complete the
construction of Rogun, a Soviet-era hydropower dam that is being built on the
Vaksh River, one of the sources of the Amu Darya.
If completed to its full specifications, said Johannes Linn, senior resident
scholar at the Washington-based Emerging Markets Forum, "it would be the
highest hydroelectric dam in the world, and this is what makes Uzbekistan
concerned".
"The problem, obviously, is that Uzbekistan feels threatened by what they
regard as a potential control of Tajikistan over the downstream water resources
and do not want Tajikistan to be able to exercise such control," Linn said,
"while on the other hand Tajikistan feels that it is essential for its
long-term development that it uses the water resources at its disposal that are
generated in the country to the extent possible - and the intention being
without harming downstream neighbors."
However legitimate Tajikistan's reasoning may be, it does not meet with a warm
reception from Uzbek officials or farmers like Ortiqov. Uzbekistan has done
what it can to block construction of the dam. The Uzbeks have called upon the
international community to conduct an independent study of the Rogun project,
noting that much has changed in the region since the Soviets first conceived
the plan in 1976.
The Tajiks accuse the Uzbek government of curtailing the overland transit of
goods to their landlocked country - although the Uzbeks insist that the delays
in railroad shipments have nothing to do with the dam issue. The Uzbeks have
also partially suspended electricity supplies from Turkmenistan to Tajikistan
and cut off their own exports of urgently needed natural gas to the Tajiks.
Some experts contend that these reprisals will hit Tajik industry hard and
plunge its entire population into darkness. Others say that such fears are
exaggerated.
New exacerbating factors
According to the UN report, the existing problems are now being magnified by
climate change.
Since the 1950s, the report says, the number of days with temperatures higher
than 40 degrees Celsius has doubled, especially in the Amu Darya delta region.
Temperatures are projected to rise by 2-3 degrees in the next 50 years. The
report says that the glaciers in the high mountains of Central Asia are
vanishing. Runoff from the glaciers is one important source of the waters of
the Amu Darya.
And then there is the problem of Afghanistan.
Today over 80%t of its population depends on farming, and the demand for water
there is increasing. This is sure to aggravate the scarcity for the countries
downstream from Afghanistan.
"As Afghanistan hopefully will develop peacefully in the next few years, its
agriculture will develop the tributaries that flow through its territory. Water
will be increasingly utilized for local irrigation," Linn said. "And that will
mean that there will be less water that will flow into the main river. That
particularly affects Turkmenistan, which is immediately downriver, but then
also could affect Uzbekistan."
A need for partnership
Despite the lack of a proper agreement and emerging problems and challenges
over the water-management issue, in particular with the Amu Darya, the status
quo continues. As water supplies continue to decrease, Nick Nuttall of UNEP
observes, the situation will likely continue to deteriorate.
"It's clear that the Amu Darya River basin and its tributary rivers are
essential for hydropower, for drinking water, for agriculture production, all
the basic things that actually people need as they develop over the coming
years. It doesn't really have a classic time frame attached to it, in terms of
this report," Nuttall said.
"But it certainly points to hot spots and flashpoints that could emerge between
the countries who share this finite resource, unless they actually move to
cooperate and plan in a sense more smartly and more intelligently how together
they are going to collectively utilize this river system," he said.
Collectively utilizing this resource would require trust among the leaders of
Central Asia, which, according to Linn, does not exist at the moment.
Tajik Foreign Minister Zarifi recently proposed plans for boosting coordinated
use of water resources among the members of the Commonwealth of Independent
States, a grouping of former Soviet republics.
"While some improvements have been made in establishing closer partnerships
between the member states," Zarifi said, "there is more that needs to be done,
which includes the issue of water sharing between the Central Asian countries."
As conditions continue to deteriorate, farmers like Ortiqov can only hope that
an agreement is made soon.
ISkander Aliev of RFE/RL's Tajik Service and Alisher Sidikov of
RFE/RL's Uzbek Service contributed to this report
Copyright (c) 2011, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
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