THE ROVING
EYE Russia
rules Pipelineistan By Pepe
Escobar
Nabucco - the alleged gas Holy
Grail from the Caspian Sea to Europe, 4,000
kilometers from Turkey to Austria - is the
perennial Pipelineistan soap opera.
Part
of the gas to supply Nabucco may come from
Azerbaijan. Another part might - a very
problematic "might" - come from Turkmenistan. But
every self-respecting energy analyst knows
Nabucco could only possibly
work if it was supplied by natural gas from Iran.
That will happen over Washington's collective dead
body.
So, once again, the spineless
European Union (EU) political "leadership" - once
again acting like the poodles of choice -
gloriously sabotaged what it has always billed as
its most ambitious energy project; caved in to US
pressure; and ultimately sacrificed its energy
independence. And all this from people who never
lose an opportunity to decry that Europe is a "gas
hostage" to Russia's Gazprom.
As with all
things Pipelineistan, there are layers and layers
of nuance. Moscow is pulling out all the stops to
prevent Iran from eventually joining Nabucco -
because its top policy agenda is to extend its
stranglehold over the EU's gas supply to 30%.
The crucial Azerbaijan gas angle is
centered on the huge Shah Deniz 2 fields. For what
is called the Southern Corridor, via Italy, two
possible pipelines are in competition. Then there
are two others competing on a Northern/Balkans
route; one of them is Nabucco; the other, faithful
to the acronym-laden ethos of Pipelineistan, is
the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP). Only next
year will the world know the end chapter for this
never-ending soap opera.
For the Southern
Corridor, the favorite is TAP (Trans-Adriatic
pipeline), a Swiss-German-Norwegian joint venture.
TAP will use infrastructure already in place and
only needs investment in a short underwater
pipeline from Greece to Italy. Norway's Statoil,
crucially, is a 25.5% partner in the exploitation
of Shah Deniz 2 fields; that makes things way
easier.
For the Northern/Balkans route,
the fat lady may be about to sing for Nabucco. The
favorite to win is a BP project, much cheaper than
Nabucco, and with no need to use Turkmen gas.
BP - of Gulf of Mexico polluting fame -
happens to be the major stockholder of Shah Deniz
2. Azerbaijan - mired in corruption - can be
reasonably described as BP country. Even his close
ally Washington knows Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev is something of a Mafia boss. The Azeris,
by the way, happen to be very popular in
Washington courtesy of the Israeli lobby.
We play chess the win-win way A
certified winner in this complex Pipelineistan
battle is Turkey. After all, any gas from
Azerbaijan towards Europe must transit through
Turkey. Since last December, in fact, Turkey and
Azerbaijan have a memorandum in place committing
both to the construction of the TANAP
(Trans-Anatolian Pipeline). TANAP will eventually
become part of the Southern Corridor.
Even
if Azerbaijan decides to sell its extra gas wealth
to Russia, Turkey also wins. Turkey has authorized
the underwater passage of the Russian-Italian
(Vladimir Putin-Silvio Berlusconi?) South Stream
pipeline in its territory in return for even more
robust trade and energy ties with Russia.
But most of all Russia wins. South Stream
is a go. Gazprom for its part has increased its
charm offensive all across Central Asia; this
means that the more Gazprom imports gas from them,
the less gas will be available for Europe (unless
it is sold by Russia ...)
With Putin back
in the presidency in May, the strategy that he
laid out back in 2000 is graphically paying all
kinds of dividends.
Gazprom's head Alexei
Miller - appointed by Putin - is totally invested
in creating a complex economy of scale with energy
supplying countries in the region, applying a very
Chinese "win-win" mentality.
The
leadership in Azerbaijan, for instance, knows very
well that Russia is the only player capable of
determining what goes on in the Caucasus - and on
top of it offers great energy deals. So here's the
writing on the wall; Russia under Putin will be
even more influential from the Caucasus to Central
Asia.
For this to work, Russia had to
torpedo Nabucco. In fact, the European-wide
financial crisis took care of it. Nabucco may end
up costing a staggering $25 billion - and
counting. Nabucco's construction "might" start by
the end of 2014 and be finished by the end of
2017; but all dates have been incessantly
postponed for years. Azerbaijan could only provide
less than half of the gas. Nobody anywhere really
knows what will be Turkmenistan's game. And Iran
has been ruled out by His Master's Voice -
Washington.
Still, the TCP (Trans-Caspian
Pipeline) - between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan -
remains in the cards. That, in theory, would be
the gate for Europe to finally have (indirect)
access to the Central Asian energy wealth of the
Caspian Sea. Ashgabat and Baku seem to be in synch
about it - the whole thing helped by EU-brokered
negotiations. Turkey has also endorsed it. But
Russia under Putin will do whatever it takes to
bomb the TCP idea.
Still the most pressing
question seems to be whether anybody in Brussels
will wake up from its masochistic haze, stop the
sanction nonsense, and talk energy with Iran.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
