Russia ups pressure on Caspian
pipeline By Stephen Blank
The Azeri-Turkish agreements of late 2011
have opened up real possibilities for effecting
positive gains in the European and trans-Caspian
energy equation. These agreements arranging for
the transport of Azeri gas to Turkey and beyond
create for the first time both a dedicated
pipeline to bring Azeri gas to Europe through the
Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TANAP) and a dedicated
infrastructure for this pipeline.
Moreover, by becoming a secure gas
provider, Azerbaijan has opened up real
possibilities for the creation of a
trans-Caspian
pipeline (TCP) to bring
Kazakh and Turkmen gas to Europe. For this latter
alternative to materialize, Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan would have to sign a bilateral accord
linking that gas to a new trans-Caspian pipeline
and then to the TANAP.
To facilitate this
agreement, the European Union has been mediating
bilateral talks between Ashgabat and Baku. And
SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s gas company, has announced its
willingness to play transit role in facilitating a
trans-Caspian pipeline.
Although there are
many obstacles remaining to the launching of a
trans-Caspian pipeline, some of which are
discussed below, it appears that the idea is
gaining traction.
Ukraine has announced
its willingness to participate in this project
provided that a link is included that would supply
gas to a liquefied natural gas terminal in Kulevi,
Georgia, that would then provide a basis for
shipping the LNG to a projected Ukrainian LNG
terminal on the Black Sea.
Ukraine is
prepared to invest 790 million euros (US$1
billion) if this condition is approved. But it is
only possible if an agreement can be reached with
Turkmenistan to supply the needed amounts to
justify the cost of this project and the LNG
terminal in Ukraine, which is estimated to cost
1.6 billion euros.
Similarly SOCAR has
indicted that the TANAP might be expanded from its
initial planned volume of 18-16 billion cubic
meters (bcm) annually to as much as 60 bcm/year.
Turkmenistan has apparently indicated a
willingness to contribute up to 40 bcm annually,
but first it and the EU must come to an agreement
before SOCAR can serve as the vital transit link.
Turkmenistan appears to be accelerating
its movements toward creating the requisite
pipeline and infrastructure at home to facilitate
this outcome.
Thus, if a trans-Caspian
dimension is added to the TNAP as well as a branch
to Ukraine, Moscow's ability to threaten both Kiev
and Ashgabat would be significantly reduced, as
would Russia's gas leverage over those countries
and Eastern Europe.
Therefore it is hardly
surprising that Moscow has again made clear its
determination to block a trans-Caspian pipeline.
On October 19, 2011, Turkmenistan's Foreign
Ministry blasted Russia's politicized objections
to it participating in a TCP, stating that such a
pipeline was a vital economic interest for
Turkmenistan. The Foreign Ministry rebuked Moscow
for "distorting the essence and gist of
Turkmenistan's energy policy" and announced that
discussions with Europe would continue.
On
November 15, 2011, Valery Yazev, vice-speaker of
the Russian Duma and head of the Russian Gas
Society, openly threatened Ashgabat, hinting that
Russia was prepared to incite an "Arab Spring" in
Turkmenistan, which would open the door to a
foreign intervention, if Ashgabat did not renounce
its "neutrality" and independent sovereign foreign
policy, including its desire to align with Nabucco
[the proposed pipeline that would carry gas from
Azerbaijan to Europe through Turkey].
Naturally Turkmenistan has strongly
protested such threats. Other Russian analysts and
officials warned that if Turkmenistan adheres to
the EU's planned Southern Corridor for energy
transshipments to Europe that bypass Russia,
Moscow would have no choice but to do to
Turkmenistan what it did to Georgia in 2008.
Since then, Moscow's opposition to this
project has only grown more public. Gazprom and
the Russian government now argue that since legal
delimitation of the Caspian Sea has not been
reached yet, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have no
right to make trans-Caspian gas shipment
arrangements. Therefore, any TCP along these lines
would violate international law.
Foreign
Minister Lavrov also stresses that no decisions
about any trans-Caspian pipeline can be made
without the consent of all the littoral states;
the EU's role there is also totally unacceptable.
Thus, Moscow has reverted to an argument it used
in the 1990s - no exploration of the Caspian can
take place unless all the littoral states agree to
it.
Moscow had earlier abandoned that
argument although Iran has used it to block any
accord on the sea's status. It is clear, however,
that Moscow is wheeling out its heavy artillery to
block this pipeline. Lavrov has demanded that the
EU "respect" the littoral states' views (ie
Russia's views) on using the Caspian Sea and its
resources.
Given the huge and ongoing
Russian buildup of military forces in the Caucasus
and the Caspian Sea noticed by the Russian press,
Russian threats against Turkmenistan and in the
Caucasus, as well as Moscow's strong diplomatic
offensive in the Balkans, it is entirely possible
that Turkmenistan might decide not to go forward
with this project.
Moreover, there are
many issues of financing, ownership of the energy
in question, and the route of any trans-Caspian
pipeline that must be resolved before any concrete
project begins.
Nevertheless, the TANAP
project may have broken the logjam that Nabucco
could not. And if the EU and US provide sufficient
cover and support to the idea, it is just possible
that a trans-Caspian pipeline may go forward to
the benefit of all the non-Russian suppliers and
consumers. That is a geopolitical goal worth
supporting.
Dr Stephen Blank is
a professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of
the US Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, PA.
The views expressed here do not represent those of
the US Army, Defense Department, or the US
government.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
