Anti-China mood threatens push
for Kyrgyz railway link By
Fozil Mashrab
TASHKENT, Uzbekistan -
Bishkek's relations with Beijing have never been
easy since Kyrgyzstan gained its independence in
1991. Trade and investment cooperation push
Kyrgyzstan and China more closely together. Yet
cultural and linguistic differences, old
territorial disputes largely resolved in China's
favor, and increasing Chinese economic domination
and migration fuel traditionally strong and
seemingly growing Sinophobic moods among Kyrgyz
people.
Anti-Chinese fever has been on the
rise again and, according to Kyrgyz observers,
threatens to be a barrier to the single-most
important infrastructure project between the two
countries - the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan
railway line, which will pave the
way for radical
geopolitical changes in Central Asia, with ripple
effects further afield.
Kyrgyzstan, the
only World Trade Organization member country in
Central Asia, has for years served as an important
gateway for China to penetrate markets in the
region. This has helped to provide employment to
around 800,000 Kyrgyz people and contributes
significantly to state revenues through customs
collections, transit fees and other taxes.
Many of the newly hatched Kyrgyz nouveaux
riches owe their fortunes to the lucrative trade
of re-exporting Chinese goods around the region.
However, along with Chinese products,
Kyrgyzstan has seen the influx of tens of
thousands Chinese traders, while every major
Chinese investment project in the country - be it
building a road, a factory or laying electricity
transmission lines - invariably brings in
thousands more. At least around 90,000 Chinese
nationals are staying illegally in Kyrgyzstan,
according to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Justice.
The influx makes migration a dangerous
issue, exacerbated by the fact that hundred
thousands of Kyrgyz people have to migrate to
Russia and Kazakhstan in search of jobs.
The huge demographic and the economic
imbalance between the two countries - along with
Central Asian folklore of Chinese aggression in
times gone by - creates a potent ground for
various Kyrgyz nationalist, pseudo-patriotic and
other fringe groups to drum up hysteria of
imminent Chinese colonization of small land-locked
Kyrgyzstan, which is about the size of Syria or
Washington state.
Resurgent anti-Chinese
sentiment threatens to undermine recent efforts by
Atambaev, who took office last year, and his
government to resuscitate the strategic
China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line project,
which has been on the drawing board since the
mid-1990s. Atambaev made completion of the line
his top priority for his single six-year term in
office.
Yet blame for the recent rise in
the Sinophobia that underlies strong opposition by
some groups to the proposed rail link partly rests
with Atambaev and his government, according to
Kyrgyz observers, who say the authorities have
mishandled the issue by sending out conflicting
and controversial messages.
One
controversy is the possibility of the Kyrgyz
government agreeing to hand over at least three
separate large gold, aluminum and iron deposits to
Chinese companies in exchange for construction of
the railway.
Critics of such deals claim
the Jetim-Too iron deposit, which has been
mentioned to be part of the possible exchange
package, has iron ore reserves alone worth between
US$4 billion and $10 billion, while the estimated
cost of the railway line is between $2 billion and
$4.5 billion.
Atambaev was quick to deny
such a deal was ever considered, but he had
publicly to reprimand one of his top officials who
supposedly aired the existence of such a plan -
while Chinese officials said the swap deal was
still on the table as heavily indebted and
cash-strapped Kyrgyzstan has little else to offer
in exchange for the railway, which would stretch
268 kilometers through mountainous Kyrgyz
territory.
The Kyrgyz government has now
come up with what seem to be two distinct
counter-offers. One involves a concession allowing
a Chinese company to operate the railway line and
collect the profits for 12 years or so (the
estimated time for fully recouping the cost of the
construction) - provided it earns, as expected,
around an annual $250 million in transit and other
fees.
The second offer envisions
establishing a joint venture company that would
team up public and private companies from the two
countries to finance construction. The Chinese
government is still considering the proposals.
Atambaev is the third Kyrgyz president in
less than two decades to try to strike a deal over
the proposed railway, following in the
unsuccessful footsteps of Askar Akaev and
Kurmanbek Bakiev. Some progress seems to be
apparent - the Chinese asked Akaev for a 99-year
concession on the line, while his successor,
Bakiev, rejected a Chinese proposal of a 49-year
concession.
Still, there may be much more
than meets the eye in the anti-Chinese fears
propagated by certain groups, with the possibility
that some of these are doing the bidding of
outside powers as part of the "great game" of
geopolitical rivalry among the US, Russia and
China and their various efforts to establish
"controlling influence" over the Central Asian
region in general and Kyrgyzstan in particular.
Some analysts suggest the proposed railway
line would dramatically increase China's influence
in the region by redirecting main trade corridors
towards China. They argue that either Russia or
the US - or maybe both separately - might be
trying to undermine the project by hiring Kyrgyz
nationalists to ratchet up anti-Chinese fever.
For Russia, a completed China-Central Asia
railway would significantly reduce its influence
in the region, while challenging its own plans to
be at the center of a trans-continental railway
line connecting East Asia to Western Europe, which
could prove a much faster alternative to existing
sea routes.
As for the US, it could be
worried that China's proposed railway might be the
opening gambit in Beijing's strategic attempts to
overcome US attempts to contain it at sea.
Moreover, the China-Central Asia railway
line is expected to be linked eventually with the
Iranian railway network and through Iran to other
Persian Gulf countries. That eventuality would
again allow China to lessen its dependence on
"US-controlled" sea routes to import oil from Iran
and other Persian Gulf countries and at the same
time make it easier to penetrate new markets.
If all these futuristic analyses of great
power strategic calculations have any reality,
then the current rise in anti-Chinese feelings in
Kyrgyzstan represents more than just internal
Kyrgyz debates between the government and various
opposition groups.
Meanwhile, Kyrgyz
officials assert that the construction of the
proposed railway line would benefit both
countries, but still China would benefit more if
one factored in the enormous strategic value that
the railway line would supposedly potentially give
to China.
In other words, the energetic
attempts to reach an agreement with China and
various public statements by Atambaev trumpeting
the railway project as his top priority seem to
suggest that he is confident China will eventually
accept his government's terms or at least he will
be able to negotiate much better terms than his
hapless predecessors.
While trying to put
to rest various anti-Chinese fears and rumors
spread to undermine the project, Atambaev said,
"It is wrong to fear China, spread unnecessary and
unfounded rumors and sow fear among the ordinary
people of the imminent Chinese invasion or try to
fence off Kyrgyzstan from its great neighbor
China, as Kyrgyzstan itself needs this railway
line to overcome transportation isolation and
access world markets."
He branded those
opposing construction of the railway and spreading
various negative rumors as the "enemies of the
development of Kyrgyzstan".
What seems to
be certain is that to convince some of his still
suspicious and skeptical countrymen, Atambaev will
have to secure a significantly better deal from
China than his predecessors were offered and
redouble his efforts to win the propaganda war
waged against this crucial project.
Fozil Mashrab is a pseudonym
used by an independent analyst based in Tashkent,
Uzbekistan
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