Energy ministers of
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan
signed a protocol last month on the construction
of power lines within the CASA-1000 (Central
Asia-South Asia) project. If completed, CASA would
allow Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to supply
electricity to Pakistan through Afghanistan,
becoming the first energy project that connects
Central and South Asia.
Some in Central
Asia see the project as too risky and economically
non-viable. Nikolay Kravtsov, a member of
Kyrgyzstan's Supervisory Board for Fuel and Energy
Complex under the Ministry of Energy and Industry,
is the most outspoken critic of CASA-1000.
According to him, thanks to its rich hydropower
resources, Tajikistan (which borders Afghanistan to
the south) would be the
primary benefactor from the project, while
Kyrgyzstan to the north of Tajikistan would still
be expected to invest up to US$200 million for its
implementation without much benefit to itself.
According to Kravtsov, since the CASA-1000
transmission lines originating from Kyrgyzstan
then pass through Tajikistan's territory, Dushanbe
may refuse the transit of Kyrgyzstani electricity,
instead preferring to sell only its own resources.
Tajikistan's current hydropower output is 48%
higher than that in Kyrgyzstan, and "the
Tajikistanis have openly said that they are ready
to deliver to South Asia the entire volume of
electricity without the participation of
Kyrgyzstan," Kravtsov said.
Along with
Kravtsov, some experts in Kyrgyzstan are also
worried about instability in Afghanistan and
Pakistan. Kravtsov is convinced that both expect
year-round electricity supplies via CASA-1000
gridlines, but will not be able to guarantee the
security of the project's infrastructure. He
argues that the price per kilowatt hour (kWh) will
be affected by the high costs of security to
protect gridlines in Afghanistan and the fact that
Central Asian countries plan to export only during
the summer months.
By contrast, Tajikistan
welcomes the opportunity to expand into southern
markets. Rashid Gulov, from the National Energy
Company of Tajikistan Barki Tojik and a member of
the CASA-1000 working group, believes that this
project is attractive for both Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan.
"Electricity produced in
Tajikistan is environmentally cleaner and two
times cheaper than [power] produced in thermal
power stations," Gulov told Jamestown. According
to Barki Tojik, Tajikistan's hydropower production
ranges from 3 billion kWh to 7 billion kWh each
year, and Kyrgyzstan's contribution to CASA-1000
would be inevitable.
Gulov is also more
optimistic about post-2014 security in
Afghanistan; if the CASA-1000 meets expectations,
it will likely be followed by other similar
initiatives. "The Afghan government has guaranteed
the security of the new power lines on its
territory," Gulov said about the May meeting
between CASA participants.
CASA-1000 would
export Kyrgyzstan's and Tajikistan's excess
electricity during summer months to Afghanistan
and Pakistan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are
expected to export a total of 4 billion kWh to
Pakistan from roughly May to September. At the
initial stage, the power capacity of CASA-1000
should reach 1,000 MW per year (hence the name of
the project) through its 750-kilometer-long
gridlines. The construction costs are estimated at
$865 million.
Construction is scheduled to
begin next year, and the first supplies of
electricity are planned to begin in 2016. The
World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Islamic
Development Bank have shown support for the
project.
CASA-1000 has also been
repeatedly mentioned by the deputy US Secretary of
State for South and Central Asia, Robert Blake, as
part of the United States' "New Silk Road" vision,
aimed at the creation of new trade routes through
Afghanistan.
"All of the countries of the
region and the United States see such projects as
critical to helping build up a private sector and
private sector opportunities, not only in
Afghanistan but also in Kyrgyzstan," Blake said
during his visit to Bishkek in April. He further
called on the Central Asian governments "to make
sure that there is a very welcoming environment
for foreign investment, that impediments such as
corruption and bureaucratic controls and all other
things that might inhibit foreign investment are
removed."
The difference between
Kyrgyzstan's and Tajikistan's view of CASA-1000
highlights the distrust between both countries on
issues of regional cooperation, as well as
uncertainty over trans-Asian projects. In the past
decade, both Bishkek and Dushanbe have sought to
increase national energy independence from
neighboring countries. These efforts were often
marred by corruption among the top political
officials who were the primary benefactors of
growing energy production.
Erica
Marat, PhD, is an analyst and reporter at
Voice of America's Russian Service. The views
expressed here do not represent those of Voice of
America, the Russian Service, or the US
Government.
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