Tajikistan holds back on
cheering huge oil, gas
find By Fozil Mashrab
The discovery of significant quantities of
oil in Tajikistan by Canadian energy company
Tethys Petroleum might do more than significantly
improve Tajikistan's future economic prospects.
It could have unexpected consequences for
the country's dispute with its downstream
neighbors over the construction of controversial
hydroelectric power stations in its territory.
In mid-July, Tethys Petroleum, which has
been prospecting for oil and gas in Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, hugely upgraded the oil
and gas reserves of its Bokhtar Production Sharing
Contract Area in Tajikistan to "estimated gross unrisked
mean recoverable
resources of 27.5 billion barrels of oil
equivalent" consisting of 114 trillion cubic feet
of gas and 8.5 billion barrels of oil and
condensate. As recently as last December, Tethys
said it had audited unrisked prospective resources
of 1.14 BBOE with 7 trillion cubic feet of gas in
place.
A report prepared by US firm
Gustavson Associates indicates that Bokhtar
Production Sharing Contract, which is part of the
Amu-Darya basin shared by Tajikistan, Afghanistan
and Uzbekistan, has some of the most prolific
fossil fuel fields in the world that have not been
drilled before, according to the Tethys
Petroleum's press release.
Upon the
announcement of the discovery of big oil in
Tajikistan, Tethys chief executive, chairman and
president David Robson made a statement that
captured the significance of the discovery both
for the company and for Tajikistan:
This hugely significant increase in
our estimated resources in Tajikistan transforms
our prospective resource base. I believe that
these unrisked mean prospective resources are
significantly greater than the estimated
remaining reserves and unrisked resources in the
UK North Sea. Geological and geophysical work
undertaken has shown that Tethys is operating in
a world class basin with enormous and untapped
potential.
The deep prospects being
pursued in Tajikistan have "super-giant"
potential and any exploration success will be
transformational for the Company. These
additional seismic data will help to identify
the location of the first deep, sub-salt well
drilled in Tajikistan targeting extremely large
prospective resources.
The latest
discovery if confirmed with successful drilling in
the near future will be transformational for the
company and for Tajikistan, whose fossil fuel
reserves previously were considered insignificant.
The latest discovery would make Tajikistan
one of the world's richest countries in terms of
oil reserves per capita and puts it in the same
league with oil and gas rich countries of the
Middle East, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and
others, transforming it from having to meet almost
all of its oil and gas needs by imports into a
major fuel exporter.
The bigger issue is
whether this godsend of a discovery will have any
impact on Tajik government's current energy sector
development strategy, whose main pillar has until
now been heavy reliance on hydropower by damming
tributaries to the Amu-Darya River that crosses
its territory.
According to Tajik
officials, Tajikistan builds several dozens of
small and medium-sized hydroelectric power
stations every year to increase its energy
production capacity. The country also hosts the
world's tallest dam - the 300-meter high Nurek dam
- and plans to construct the controversial Rogun
dam, which if completed will exceed that with a
projected height of 336 meters.
Downstream
Uzbekistan opposed construction of the Rogun dam,
arguing that it will have negative environmental
consequences for the region and also adversely
impact its agricultural sector.
Until now,
Tajik officials' trademark rhetoric has been that
Tajikistan has no other option but to develop its
hydroelectric power generating capacity as the
country is not endowed with other alternative
energy resources such oil and gas.
Some
regional observers even used to juxtapose oil and
gas rich downstream countries of Uzbekistan,
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to upper stream
countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which have
been believed to lack fossil fuel reserves.
Developing hydroelectric power was
considered essential even though that risked
worsening tensions between Tajikistan and
neighboring downstream countries, especially
Uzbekistan.
The discovery of large
quantities of oil and gas will significantly
weaken the Tajik government's previous position
such disputes, as its "no other option" argument
will no longer be valid.
As significant,
the discovery of such huge reserves might also
bestow a legitimizing aura for the increasingly
shaky Tajik government of President Emomali
Rakhmon, who is seeking re-election next year. In
the past two weeks, there has been an upsurge of
violence in the country, with government troops
clashing with local armed criminal groups in the
remote Badakhshan province in the Pamir Mountains
bordering Afghanistan and China.
Tethys
Petroleum's findings and optimistic approach might
also help the government put pressure on another
foreign energy giant operating in the country -
Russia's Gazprom - which has been deemed by Tajik
officials to be dilly-dallying for political
reasons on implementing various oil and gas
exploration projects in the country.
However, up until now neither Minister of
Energy Sherali Gul nor any other high-ranking
Tajik official has been reported to have made any
upbeat statements about the momentous discovery by
Tethys, even though it is now several weeks since
the company made its findings public.
That
raises the question of why Tajik government and
officials prefer to keep silent over the
supposedly "good news".
They may fear it
might influence the World Bank-sponsored economic
and environmental assessment verdict of the Rogun
dam, which is due to be completed in the first
half of 2013.
The Tethys find, if
confirmed, might also encourage the World Bank and
other international donors to reconsider their
stance on the construction of other controversial
dams in Tajikistan.
Fozil
Mashrab is a pseudonym used by an independent
analyst based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
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