Russia struggles to draw
Tajikistan into Customs
Union By Sergei Blagov
Russian officials have
reiterated pledges to boost economic cooperation
with Tajikistan. Meanwhile, the authorities in
Dushanbe seem to remain hesitant on some issues,
notably the country's possible membership in the
Russian-led economic grouping, the Customs Union
of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. When Russian
President Vladimir Putin traveled to Tajikistan on
October 4-5, both sides reiterated optimistic
official pronouncements. In their joint statement,
Putin and his Tajik counterpart, Emomalii Rahmon,
noted "positive developments" in the bilateral
strategic partnership, including economic ties.
They also pledged to increase bilateral trade and
develop investment
ties, including Russian
investment in Tajikistan's energy and mining
sectors.
Ahead of the summit meeting,
Tajikistani officials voiced expectations of a
major "economic breakthrough" during the top-level
talks, including in the oil and gas, hydropower,
and mining sectors.
However, actual
results of the summit meeting appeared to fall
short of these expectations. Both sides only
signed relatively minor agreements on energy ties,
as well as a migration cooperation blueprint.
Furthermore, the bilateral energy deal reached was
in fact only a memorandum of understanding (MOU)
that stipulated signing the bilateral agreement on
Russian supplies of oil products to Tajikistan
free of Russian export duties. Russian
officials disclosed that this agreement was
expected to be signed by November 1, even though
they argued that the agreement would come as a
direct support for Tajikistan's economy. After the
talks, Putin only noted that Russia might consider
supporting projects to build medium and small
hydropower plants, utilizing Tajikistan's inland
rivers.
In the past, Russia had
participated in the construction of the
670-megawatt Sangtuda-1 hydroelectric plant,
starting construction in 2005. Russian energy
executives had pledged to launch the first unit of
Sangtuda-1 in 2007, and then postponed it to 2008.
Repeated delays of the Sangtuda-1 projects have
been an irritant in bilateral economic relations.
Only in July 2009, then-president Dmitry Medvedev
and Rahmon jointly inaugurated the Sangtuda-1
hydropower plant, which generates around 10% of
Tajikistan's electricity output.
Apart
from Sangtuda, Russia pledged to invest some $2
billion in the Rogun hydropower project. In August
2007, Tajikistan announced the decision to annul a
cooperation agreement with Russia's aluminum giant
RusAl to build the $1.3 billion Rogun hydropower
plant. Subsequently, Russia confirmed its intent
to pursue the Rogun project; yet, little progress
has been achieved so far.
In recent years,
Russian officials also expressed interest in oil
and gas projects in Tajikistan. In March 2006, the
head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, Alexei Miller,
and Tajikistan's officials signed a memorandum on
the creation of an oil and gas joint venture to
develop four gas fields. However, the joint
venture has been slow to materialize, and it was
not mentioned during the top-level talks in
Dushanbe earlier this month.
Bilateral
trade ties have remained at largely unchanged
levels in recent years. In 2011, trade between
Russia and Tajikistan reached $1 billion. In
January - August 2012, the bilateral trade volume
amounted to $650 million or 2.7% down
year-on-year, including Russian exports to
Tajikistan of $590 million, according to the
Russian statistics. Therefore, bilateral trade
appeared to stagnate in recent years. For example,
in 2008 trade between Russian and Tajikistan
amounted to $1.2 billion or 25% of Tajikistan's
foreign trade turnover, according to Tajikistan's
statistics.
In the meantime, Moscow
apparently expected to convince Dushanbe to join
the Russia-led Customs Union. On October 5,
Russian newswires commented that both sides were
expected to discuss Tajikistan's membership in the
Customs Union. The head of the Russian Federal
Customs Service, Andrei Belyaninov, urged his
counterparts in Tajikistan to expedite Dushanbe's
accession into the Customs Union. Moreover,
according to Russian officials, Kyrgyzstan would
join the union before the end of 2012.
On
December 9, 2010, the union's member states,
Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, officially invited
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to join the economic
grouping, and in April 2011, Kyrgyzstan decided to
start procedures to accede to the union. During
the meeting in St. Petersburg on October 19, 2011,
prime ministers of the Customs Union's member
states approved Kyrgyzstan's membership in the
union. The union pledged to create a working group
on Kyrgyzstan's accession process, but no
timeframe was announced.
Yet despite
repeated invitations as well, Tajikistan has
remained reluctant to join the grouping. Indeed,
the joint Russian-Tajikistani statement issued
after top-level talks in Dushanbe on October 4 - 5
failed to mention the Customs Union at all.
Meanwhile, Dushanbe remains dependent on
Tajik migrant workers in Russia, who are estimated
to send hundreds of millions of dollars from
Russia to Tajikistan every year. The migration
cooperation blueprint signed on October 5, thus,
came as a positive development for Tajikistan's
authorities.
Russia's top officials
reiterated interest in closer economic ties with
Tajikistan during the bilateral summit on October
4 - 5. However, Moscow apparently struggled to
convince Dushanbe to accept its vision of
post-Soviet economic integration and join the
Customs Union. Now it remains to be seen whether
Bishkek's moves toward the Russian-led economic
grouping may sufficiently change Dushanbe's mind
in the near- to mid-future.
Prior to
working as Moscow-based independent researcher and
journalist, Dr Sergei Blagov was a newswire
reporter. He spent nearly seven years reporting
from Hanoi, Vietnam, between 1983 and 1997.
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