SPEAKING
FREELY All
Central Asian roads lead to
Muscovy By Himar Arjun Singh
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click here
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Central Asia stretches from the Caspian
Sea in the west to China in the east and from
Afghanistan in the south to Russia in the north
and includes the republics of Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan with a total population of 64.7 million
as of 2012. In September 2012 these countries
completed 21 years of independence. During these
two decades their political and economic
strategies have undergone fundamental changes. Yet
one feeling that runs deep in all Central Asian
Republics is that “all roads still lead to
Muscovy”.
Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet in western China and
southern Siberia in eastern Russia are other
areas which fall within
the periphery and influence of Central
Asia.
Central Asia has long been a
strategically important region due to its
geographical proximity to several great powers of
Eurasia. Russia’s expansion and influence in the
region dates back to the 18th century when Peter
the Great sent an armed trade expedition of 4000
men in 1717-18 to the Khanate of Khiva (much of
present day Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). Under
the pretense of hospitality, the Khivans split the
Russian mission in camps and later ambushed and
slaughtered them brutally leaving ten men alive to
be sent back.
Severely indebted after
Russia’s costly westward expansion into Europe,
Peter the Great could do nothing. However, this
mass slaughter of Russians was never forgotten.
Similar missions were undertaken and sent by Tsar
Paul I, Tsar Nicholas I and Tsar Alexander II to
wrest control of Central Asia and bring it under
the Russian dominion. By 1873 the mission was
finally successful and the Russian empire was in
complete control of the region with the successful
conquest of Khanate of Khiva, Bukhara and Kokand.
The Russian conquest had a tremendous
advantage of creating a central location between
four historical seats of power viz. China, India,
Persia and the Ottoman Empire. From its central
location, Russia had access to trade routes to and
from all the regional powers. The region which
falls on the ancient silk route is rich in
minerals and fossil fuel resources. Russia
continues to view the region as a strategic buffer
against outside challenges. As a result,
geopolitical compulsions have guided Russia to
retain Central Asia within its sphere of
influence.
But all of that is slowly and
quietly changing. As more world powers converge on
Central Asia, the region has once again become a
hotbed of diplomatic, strategic, economic and
geo-political rivalry. Apparently, all roads from
Central Asia to Muscovy are crumbling with member
states seeking lucrative partnerships with outside
powers including United States while ignoring
Russian concerns. Russia, mindful of its inability
to do much, is instead trying to offset its waning
influence in Central Asia by pursuing new
partnerships in the peripheral areas of the region
to retain its influence and relevance.
However Russia’s anxiety to forge new
partnerships around the region with
non-traditional partners will leave a vacuum in
Central Asia which will benefit one country
immensely more than any other. All roads that once
led to Muscovy now lead to Beijing.
Emerging new frontiers The
capital of Pakistan, Islamabad is buzzing with
diplomatic activity on its new engagement with
Russia. Russia’s sudden interest in Pakistan is
quite perplexing. In the past, Russia had almost
no substantial political relations with Pakistan.
Pakistan has cleverly changed that by engaging
Russia to offset its tense relationship with the
United States post 9/11. Pakistan’s close ally and
all weather friend China seems to have played the
mediating role of getting the countries together.
China has successfully been able to
convince Russia into re-adjusting its foreign
policy in view of the emerging security situation
in Central and South Asia to propagate and forge a
trilateral; China-Pakistan Russia axis which will
have strategic gains for all three nations.
Pakistan is hopeful that it will be able to exert
more influence and pressure on Afghanistan by
directly engaging with the Russians. Traditionally
Russia which was the main force behind the
Northern Alliance against the Taliban yields a
considerable influence on elements in the Hamid
Karzai Government which has major leaders from the
Northern Alliance now in power in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's direct engagement with Russia
was pro-actively facilitated by China and
subsequently achieved a breakthrough under the
auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO). The SCO led by China and Russia formally
granted Pakistan observer States status in July
2005 along with Iran, Mongolia and India. Russia's
relationship with Pakistan has evolved so quickly
and can be gauged by the fact that six years later
in 2011 President Vladimir Putin openly not only
supported Pakistan's full membership of the SCO
but termed Pakistan as "a very reliable and
important partner of Russia".
Not
surprisingly, Pakistan has been busy hosting
back-to back-visits by the Russian President's
Special Envoy and the Chinese Foreign Minister in
May 2012. The recent visit of the Russian Foreign
Minister to Islamabad and Pakistan Army Chief's in
October 2012 signals the dawn of a new era in
their relationships. Coincidentally, in June 2012
Afghanistan was also granted Observer State status
at the SCO. Hence, the strategic significance of
the Russian new found engagement Pakistan is not
lost on all countries in Central Asia and South
Asia, particularly India and the other great world
powers.
The origins With the
disintegration of the Soviet Union, China
suspected trouble on its vast western border of
Xinjiang due to a similar secessionist movement.
It immediately recognized the Central Asian
republics in 1991 and set about engaging the newly
independent member states. Another most promising
prospect of expanding and consolidating these
relationships was for gaining access to the
landlocked region's vast energy resources
including oil, metals, minerals and natural gas.
The Soviet Union's sudden demise provided
China with a huge opportunity to spread its
influence in its immediate yet non-familiar
neighborhood. The Russians, baffled at their
decline and high vulnerability, decided to tag
along in hope of retaining a part of their lost
glory and legacy. Hence the Shanghai Five was
created on April 26, 1996 with the signing of the
joint treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border
Regions in Shanghai by the heads of States of
China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan. In April 1997 the same countries
signed the joint treaty on Reduction of Military
Forces in Border Regions in a meeting in Moscow.
Subsequently with the inclusion of
Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the
Shanghai Five as the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. The SCO declared itself as an
intergovernmental mutual-security organization
having focus on security, economic, cultural and
military cooperation amongst member states.
By 2007, the SCO had initiated over 20
large-scale projects in sectors such as energy,
transportation and telecommunications with
officials from member states holding regular
meetings focusing on areas as diverse as economic
affairs, banking, defense, security, military,
foreign affairs and cultural linkages.
Additionally SCO also created the position
of dialogue partner in 2008 and granted the
dialogue partner status to Belarus and Sri Lanka
in 2009 which was extended to Turkey in June 2012
at its annual summit in Beijing. Since then the
SCO has established relations with the United
Nations as an observer in the General Assembly,
the European Union, the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, the Commonwealth of Independent
States and the Organization of Islamic
Cooperation.
Over time, the SCO has become
a Chinese-Russian led bloc which the Chinese
analysts argue represents "an embodiment of the
new security concept and a new type of
multilateral institution in the post-cold war
environment" however the truth seems somewhere
else.
The new Great Game The
Kremlin has taken upon itself to safeguard its
economic interests as one of the most important
objectives of its Central Asia policy. And in
order to do so, Russia has tried to keep a tight
leash on countries it considers most critical and
important, such as Kazakhstan which it considers
important both politically and economically. Not
only is Kazakhstan the second largest oil producer
after Russia in the former Soviet Union, it is
also home to significant former Soviet industrial
and defense facilities.
Control over
Kazakhstan's energy resources and their means of
transportation gives Russia significant economic
and strategic leverage. Due to enormous oil and
gas reserves in Kazakhstan, Russia has a vital
interest in Central Asia. Russian enterprises are
also dependent on cotton imports from Uzbekistan.
However many member states in the region despite
strong affinity with Russia, have gradually been
moving away from its orbit due to divergent
economic and national interests.
An
increasingly assertive and economically powerful
China has made strident inroads in the Central
Asian republics. China has been aggressively
promoting bilateral relations with nations in the
region quite often surpassing the self created SCO
and has become Central Asia's principal trading
partner and its main source of foreign investment.
China is increasingly using investment and aid
packages as tools to leverage and consolidate its
clout and influence in the region.
Both
Russia and the United States have conflicting
interests in Central Asia at the moment and are in
direct competition over gas pipelines and military
bases in the region. China has successfully
overplayed Moscow's fears of Washington's Central
Asia policy, hedging the two against each other
while making significant gains in its outreach in
the region through its soft power.
China's
current involvement with Central Asia republics is
limited to energy resources and raw materials.
However China is actively working to broad base
its investments in infrastructure,
telecommunications, transport and electricity. The
Chinese government is increasingly giving loans to
its public sector enterprises that are investing
in Central Asia. China has invested close to US$10
billion in Central Asia and many investment
projects have either been agreed or are being
negotiated.
The volume of trade between
China and Central Asia increased from $1.52
billion in 2001 to $3.01 billion in 2010 according
to United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development. As China's trade with the region
rapidly grows increasing its dependence on the
region's energy supplies, maintaining influence in
Central Asia has become a matter of critical
strategic and geo-political importance for China.
China also views closer cooperation with Central
Asia as an important tool to boost economic
development in the west of China.
The
construction of Turkmenistan-Xinjiang gas
pipeline, which started operations in December
2009 is the best example of how China plans to
develop its Western frontier. This gas pipeline
runs for 188 km in Turkmenistan, 530 km in
Uzbekistan, and 1,300 km in Kazakhstan before
connecting to the Chinese grid, stretching 8,000
km all the way to the east of the country.
Russia has been watching China's economic
engagement with the region with suspicion and
skepticism. Russia has instead been working hard
on the development of a Eurasian Union and trying
to expand its Customs Union in Central Asia with
limited success. Russia has also been working
behind the scenes to block China's US$10 billion
loan for the development of regional
infrastructure in Central Asia.
While
Russia has been trying hard to contain China's
growing influence in the region, the absence of an
alternative, is likely to lead the Central Asian
republics succumbing to the Chinese economic
might. Similarly Russia's development of a
Eurasian Union will directly clash with the future
strengthening of the SCO.
United States
policy towards the Central Asian states has
primarily been focused on mutual cooperation and
NATO's efforts in stabilizing Afghanistan. The
United States has been promoting free markets,
energy development, human rights and democracy
while forging East-West and Central Asia-South
Asia trade links. United States has signed trade
agreements with all the Central Asian countries
however investment treaties are in force only with
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
The aid and
investment by United States in the region is
viewed as strengthening the independence of the
Central Asian states and forestalling Chinese,
Russian influence or other efforts to subvert
them. United States has also been trying to limit
Chinese and Russian influence by exploiting the
division between the member States to expand its
own influence. And it has achieved at least
partial success. Uzbekistan recently snubbed both
Russia and China by boycotting the SCO's joint
anti-terrorist military exercises in Tajikistan.
Despite the current divergence of
interests between the United States and Russia,
the fear of political repercussions of Beijing's
growing economic weight will pull them in the same
direction sooner than later. The Central Asian
countries also harbor suspicions while extracting
maximum economic benefit from the big brother on
their western border.
The economic
opportunity and strategic advantage of Central
Asia is not lost on India, another regional power.
India has traditionally maintained good relations
with the member countries region due to cultural
and historical linkages. However despite the
bonhomie in bilateral relations between India and
Central Asia major constraints in terms of the
region being landlocked and non-availability of
direct transit routes for trade has blocked the
development of trade.
India lags
significantly behind all the major players in the
region in trading volumes with the Central Asian
countries and has failed to exploit the vibrant
consumer market. While recent trade figures over
the last 10 years are encouraging, the volume of
trade still remains abysmally low. India maintains
its only foreign military base in Tajikistan at
the Farkhor Air Base in Ayni.
Similarly
India is extending its soft power in the region by
setting up a Central Asian University in
Kyrgyzstan to focus on information technology,
management, philosophy and languages.
Conclusion That the region is so
fiercely contested for influence and resources by
the current super powers and the emerging powers
signifies its strategic importance and value on
the global stage. However in this great game it is
imperative for all countries in Central Asia not
to hedge their bets on any one power. The economic
and political success of the Central Asian
republics will depend on their ability to strike a
balance between the rising influences of world
powers and avoiding transnational oligarchy.
India can play a very significant role in
helping the Central Asian republics maintain,
leverage and strike a balance between the rising
influences of other powers which often try to pull
the region in their orbit. The onus of cultivating
this relationship falls as much as on India as on
the countries in Central Asia for maintaining
peace and achieving economic growth in the region.
Himar Arjun Singh is Deputy
Director at the International Division, Federation
of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry
(FICCI). The views expressed herein are personal
and do not necessarily represent the views of
FICCI)
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please click here
if you are interested in contributing. Articles
submitted for this section allow our readers to
express their opinions and do not necessarily meet
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