China, Russia and Obama's second
coming By M K Bhadrakumar
Barack Obama's four-year second term in
office as the president of the United States will
be setting the tone of the final countdown on
China's emergence as a superpower. The power
dynamic in Asia-Pacific becomes a crucial template
in this historic process.
While the US can
count on Japan and Australia as time-tested
allies, its cogitations with China and Russia are
evolving and how they shape up will decisively
impact the power dynamic in Asia-Pacific.
The customary messages of greetings and
the early reactions from Beijing and Moscow give
some clues as to the level of expectations in the
two capitals regarding Obama's second term.
Neither capital showed any inkling in the run up
to November 6 as
to what result to expect
and wore an air of studied aloofness, but both
scrambled to react as soon as Obama's victory
sailed into view.
China remains cautiously
optimistic that friction in the relations with the
US is manageable and need not necessarily
degenerate into confrontations. It draws comfort
that there isn't going to be any "unknown unknown"
in the overall relationship insofar as Beijing can
anticipate what to expect out of Obama's
presidency.
Of course, China's trump card
is that there is great interdependency in the
relations between the two countries today, and
Beijing is confident that it can play a helpful
role in the recovery of the US economy.
The Russian reaction, in comparison, has
been somewhat cagey and conditional, rather
despondent about what to expect but unsure how to
get a new deal either. Meanwhile, Moscow is
bracing for some turbulence in the air in the
short term.
Absolutely straightforward
Beijing felicitated Obama at the level of
the president and prime minister, underscoring the
closeness of the ties going beyond the call of
protocol. Interestingly, Chinese Vice-President Xi
Jinping also sent a message of congratulations to
Vice-President Joe Biden. Biden had hosted Xi
during the latter's highly successful tour of the
United Sates in February during which they
reportedly clocked several hours of intense
one-on-one conversation.
Biden later
recounted that he and Xi forged a close personal
relationship despite the differences between the
two countries on issues of trade or foreign
policy. "He has been absolutely straight forward.
He is open. He is, like me, trying to understand
the other man's position. You can't ask for much
more than that... He wants to know the details. I
get a clear sense he's trying to understand what
our interests are and what our concerns are" -
this was Biden's recap.
Beijing is
evidently giving an early start to Xi's elevation
as the head of state in March by invoking the
personal rapport that apparently developed between
him and Biden.
Curiously, though, Moscow
let a similar wonderful opportunity pass with the
Kremlin choosing not to play the "Dmitry Medvedev
card", although the Russian prime minister too
apparently enjoyed some chemistry with Obama
during his term as president till May. Thus,
it was left to Medvedev to react publicly while on
a visit to Vietnam and, in the event, he amply
made up for the carefully worded message from
President Vladimir Putin, which was restrained
while cordial but shorn of any manifest enthusiasm
or personal warmth. Medvedev, in comparison, was
visibly effusive:
"I'm glad that the
biggest and powerful state in the world will be
governed by a person who doesn't consider Russia
geopolitical enemy number one. I believe that he
[Obama] is a successful president... He is a
predictable partner for Russia.
"I don't
conceal that much depends in our country on the US
economic situation. Whether we like it or not,
whether we are kind to Americans or not, any
Russian family depends on how the dollar is
valued... We [he and Obama] started 'resetting'
relations. It succeeded a little... [We] managed
to achieve good results. I hope that we will have
normal relations with Obama. It is also important
for the situation around the world."
Moscow has apparently spoken in two
voices, whether out of design or genuine discord.
In fact, when a third voice appeared alongside -
that of foreign minister Sergey Lavrov - it easily
merged with Putin's message.
Lavrov said
something broadly akin to what Barkis once
conveyed through David Copperfield to Clara
Pegotty in Charles Dickens's famous classic novel
- namely, Russia is willing to move forward in
ties with the US and is ready to do something,
provided Washington is interested.
Putin,
by the way, has invited Obama to visit Russia and
a visit is entirely conceivable in June when the
G-20 summit takes place in St Petersburg. Lavrov
summed up: "It is natural that we will continue to
work with this administration. We are ready to do
our best on the basis of equality, mutual benefit
and mutual respect as far as the new US
administration is prepared for this."
Equality, mutual trust and benefit
The Chinese and Russian reactions
regarding Obama's second term in the White House
bring out the two countries' varying priorities
and concerns. Moscow's predicament is acute. Obama
has opted for a selective engagement of Russia,
while otherwise ignoring it and not paying heed to
Russia's interests. Beijing, on the other hand, is
getting a little too much attention from Obama.
Russia seeks parity ("equality") in terms
of shouldering the heavy burden of the global
strategic balance, which it sees as lying at the
core of the post-cold war world order, and is
unhappy that Washington no more thinks on these
lines since the collapse of the former Soviet
Union.
China on the contrary feels
self-assured that the interdependency between it
and the US almost makes them joined at the hips
and that the two countries have a real need to
swim together.
A Xinhua commentary on
Obama's victory boasted on Wednesday, "No US
president can avoid relations with China in the
next four years, as bilateral trade is likely to
top 500 billion US dollars this year and nearly
10,000 people travel between the two countries
each day."
While Moscow assesses that
Obama's "reset" of US-Russia ties has become all
but moribund, Beijing draws satisfaction that
despite the frictions emanating out of the US'
"rebalancing" in Asia, the Sino-American
partnership showed "steady progress" during the
past four-year period. Xinhua noted:
Through their common understanding
on building a cooperative partnership based on
mutual respect and mutual benefit, the two
countries have defined each other's role and
their relationship in a clearer and more
positive way. Dialogues between the two
countries are smoother and more effective.
The angst in the Russian tone is
missing in the Chinese estimation of the future
trajectory of ties with the US. Again, there is
certain realism borne out of China's own
priorities in the evolving situation. Xinhua adds,
However, disputes between the
world's largest developed and developing
countries are apparent and there is always a
risk of confrontation... It [China] wants to
build a new type of relationship - one defined
by mutual benefit and cooperation... If the
United States does not change its traditionally
hegemonic ways of thinking, there will be more
and more conflicts as China continues to develop
and protect its own interests.
China has
many urgent domestic problems that need tended
to... It [China] cannot bear the costs of full
confrontation with the outside world. The US
needs China as well, not just in terms of
economic development but also in other spheres.
The global financial crisis revealed how
globalization has made countries so
interdependent... China and the US have to work
together for the sake of future world
stability."
Woods are lovely, dark
and deep Put differently, China is weighing
in the woods - how dark and deep (and yet lovely)
the woods could be - while Russia is instead
doggedly counting the trees. Moscow is bogged down
in the thought that the US House of
Representatives may be about to enact the
so-called Magnitsky List, which its sees as a
backdoor replacement of the cold-war era
Jackson-Vanick Amendment that restricted US-Russia
economic ties.
In the assessment of Sergei
Rogov, director of the Institute for US and Canada
Studies in Moscow, clouds are gathering for an
imminent storm in US-Russia ties, but, "after a
while, the Obama Administration may put forward a
new agenda for relations with Russia".
He
thinks Obama will have to seek out Russia for
cooperation on Afghanistan and on disarmament
issues; and some "very serious discussions" may
even take place on the vexed question of the
missile defense program. But, according to Rogov,
the best that can be said is that, "generally
speaking, I don't think the Obama Administration
will bring the US-Russian relations to a serious
crisis of any kind." In sum, Moscow can expect
more of that same old admixture of selective
engagement and benign neglect out of Obama's
second term.
Both Beijing and Moscow are
eagerly speculating on Obama's choice of the next
US secretary of state. Both visualize the strong
likelihood of Obama's choice narrowing down to
Senator John Kerry.
Of course, Kerry will
be new to China ties, while he is a familiar face
to Moscow and one that may evoke ambivalent
feelings (although it could be much worse if
Obama's choice turns out to be Susan Rice, who has
made many an undiplomatic remark about Russian
policies.) To be sure, China will lament the
departure of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His
assignments included the Soviet Union, South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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