Tajikistan's new roads boost civil,
military links By Mark Vinson
On October 27, Tajikistan's President
Emomalii Rahmon formally inaugurated the
Shahriston tunnel along the Dushanbe-Khujand
highway. The 5,253-meter tunnel cuts the time
required to drive between the capital of Dushanbe
and Tajikistan's second-largest city, Khujand
(Leninabad), from eight to less than four hours.
The Chinese-built project began six years
ago and is estimated to have cost US$80 million.
Reports of passengers who have recently made the
trip indicate that in addition to making the trip
shorter and safer it has also cut the price by
20%. In spite of the convenience, people who
regularly use the road complain about the toll
system along the route, which was implemented in
2010.
The system is owned and operated by
an international firm called
"Innovative Road
Solutions", but many complain of corruption and
lack of transparency in its operation as well of
the lack of alternative roads on the tolled route.
The criticism has not been limited to
pundits and disgruntled customers. Amonullah
Ashur, head of Tajikistan's Anti-Monopoly Agency,
has gone so far as to accuse the firm of operating
illegally. Despite efforts to improve the firm's
transparency and accountability over the past two
years, the existence and operating practices of
the toll system continues to breed resentment on
the ground by both those who patronize it and
those who live along its route.
This
summer, Tajikistan also inked a deal with China
Eximbank for a $50.5 million loan for construction
of a road from Dushanbe to the southern city of
Danghara. The firm "China Road" has been tapped to
build the route, which is part of a more ambitious
project to improve the Dushanbe-Kulma Pass road
that connects China and Tajikistan via Badakhshan.
Additionally, work has begun on building
and improving 174 km of roads connecting Aini and
Panjakent that will further integrate the two
primary cities of the Zarafshan Valley. The
reconstruction is estimated to cost $140 million,
and Asian Development Bank has provided $100
million for the project.
Given its
mountainous geography, parts of the Zarafshan
Valley are often difficult if not impossible to
access in the winter months, making cities like
Panjakent reliant on trade with the primarily
ethnically Tajik city of Samarkand in Uzbekistan.
While the two cities are only 60 km apart, the
border crossing is subject to frequent closures
resulting from political tensions between Tashkent
and Dushanbe.
The improved road could
foster greater economic interdependency between
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which could in turn
improve bilateral relations. However, improved
infrastructure in the Zarafshan Valley and
connectivity to the rest of the country also
effectively neutralizes some of Tashkent's
leverage over Dushanbe, which could embolden
Tajikistan to adopt more provocative stances on
hot-button issues such as water rights and border
delineation.
The improvement of
Tajikistan's transportation infrastructure is
important not only for trade and the Northern
Distribution Network, but also has implications
for Tajikistan's strategic geography and internal
cohesion. Despite being a physically small country
with a legacy of Soviet rule, Tajikistan's
mountainous terrain has limited the scope of
centralized authority.
During his speech
at the opening of the Shahriston tunnel, Rahmon
referenced this fact: "Today we have built one
united country out of three divided pieces." The
"three pieces" that the president was referring to
are central/southern Tajikistan, which includes
the major cities of Dushanbe, Qurgonteppa, and
Kulob; the economically vital northern region
broadly demarcated by the Ferghana Valley
including the cities of Khujand, Isfara and
Istaravshan; and the mountainous, semi-autonomous
region of Badakhshan and its provincial capital of
Khorog.
The new tunnel promises to better
unite the first two regions, but it does little to
physically integrate Khorog, which is connected to
Dushanbe by a largely unpaved road that can take
up to three days to traverse.
In
post-civil war outbreaks of violence in Tajikistan
that have necessitated the internal deployment of
troops - such as those that occurred in Rasht in
2010 and Khorog this summer - military helicopters
have not been sufficient to transport soldiers,
and the army has had to rely heavily on roads that
are not always passable in winter. It is estimated
that the military has only 12 Russian MI-8
transport helicopters at its disposal.
Moreover, a high profile crash in 2010 in
the Rasht Valley that killed 25 members of the
elite "Alpha Group" has raised doubts as to the
ability of Tajikistan's military to project air
power. By comparison during the three-year Second
Chechen War a better trained and equipped Russian
force lost 45 helicopters (23 of them MI-8s) in a
mountainous counter-insurgency campaign.
The new roads from the capital to Khujand
and Danghara also shrink the distance between the
two regions that have historically been rivals.
Rahmon's power base is centered in the city of
Danghara in the region of Kulob and, while
formally aligned in the civil war, the Kulobis
have historically been rivals of the Khujandi
nomenklatura whose clout sharply diminished after
the fall of the Soviet Union.
Better
internal connectivity among the various regions
facilitates Rahmon's agenda of state
consolidation, allowing him to rely less on local
power brokers as his ability to project force from
the center increases.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
