Clashes challenge Azerbaijan
strongman By Claire Bigg and
Arifa Kazimova
January is usually an
uneventful month in Azerbaijan. This year,
however, it has been a time of revolt.
The
past four weeks were marked by a string of bold
protests denouncing what many see as an
increasingly corrupt and overbearing government.
With the country's vast oil wealth slow to
trickle down to the majority of the population,
the protests have also reflected mounting
frustration over the divide between rich and poor
under President Ilham Aliyev's iron-fisted rule.
As a presidential election looms that will
pit Aliyev against an
increasingly vocal
opposition, many believe Azerbaijan is in for a
lot more political turmoil in the year to come.
"The opposition political parties hope to
expand their electoral base by using these
protests and win the presidential election in
October 2013," says Baxtiyar Haciyev, a member of
the youth opposition movement Positive Change and
a graduate of Harvard University.
"But
people may not be willing to wait until October.
If the government does not immediately adopt
social, political, and economic reforms, if it
does not give people - especially young educated
people - a voice, these protests may spread across
the country in upcoming months. Then it will be
very difficult to control this process."
Aliyev, accused by Western governments and
human-rights groups of rigging past elections, has
tolerated little dissent since succeeding his
father in 2003.
But his heavy-handed
response to the January protests, far from
crushing criticism, has only fanned public anger.
Intended to raise awareness More
than 20 people were handed stiff fines for
participating in a January 12 protest in Baku,
under a new law against unsanctioned
demonstrations.
The peaceful rally,
sparked by the suspicious death of a young army
conscript, was intended to raise awareness of
deadly hazing and violence in the army.
Five days later, some 1,000 shopkeepers
demonstrated in Baku to protest sharp rent
increases by the managers of Azerbaijan's largest
shopping center, believed to have connections with
top government officials.The rally erupted in
clashes with police during which 15 participants
were detained. Some 5,000 shopkeepers kept their
businesses closed in support of the protesters.
Then, on January 23, thousands of people
gathered in the town of Ismayilli, 150 kilometers
northwest of the capital, in response to the
authorities' refusal to shut down a local motel
allegedly housing a brothel.
In a night of
rioting, protesters torched the motel, reportedly
owned by the son of Azerbaijan's minister for
social welfare, as well as the local governor's
residence and several cars. Dozens of protesters
were arrested.
When the rallies resumed
the next day to demand the release of
demonstrators and the local governor's
resignation, riot police answered with tear gas
and water cannons. Authorities say 12 protesters
remain in custody in Ismayilli, facing criminal
charges of looting and organizing riots. Many
others were fined.
Forcefully
dispersed The crackdown shocked many
Azerbaijanis and sparked another rally in Baku to
express solidarity with the Ismayilli protesters.
Clashes erupted between police and
demonstrators protesting rent increases at
Azerbaijan's largest shopping center on January
19.
Again, the demonstration was
forcefully dispersed and about 40 participants
were detained. Three opposition activists and a
prominent journalist were subsequently fined
between US$380 and $3,185.
Authorities
have described the protests as isolated incidents
and sought to portray organizers as bent on sowing
chaos in the country.
Fuad Alasgarov, the
head of the presidential law-enforcement
department, blamed the unrest on "forces
interested in disrupting socio-political
stability" in Azerbaijan and seeking to "confuse
people by spreading various rumors and cause
confrontation in the public."
Zahid Oruc,
a member of the pro-government Ana Vatan
(Motherland) Party, who sits on the parliamentary
committee on defense and security, puts the
protests down to hardship caused by the global
economic crisis.
They are not, he insists,
directed against Aliyev's rule. "There is one
common feature in the position of those who are
demanding change," Oruc says. "They want these
changes to be implemented under the leadership of
President Aliyev. Neither in Ismayilli nor at the
Bina shopping center did the protesters chant
slogans or brandish placards in favor of another
leadership."
Role of social
media What certainly characterizes these
protests is the unprecedented role played by
social media, which has invited comparisons with
the Arab Spring revolts that brought down
long-entrenched leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, and
Libya.
Young, educated urban residents
have been the driving force behind January's spike
in political activism and have relied heavily on
social-networking websites to drum up support for
the rallies.
As many as 20,000 people
joined a Facebook page set up to promote the
antihazing rally in Baku. Activists have also been
collecting signatures for an online petition
urging Aliyev to address hazing and violence in
the army.
Another Facebook page was
created to lobby for the firing of a police
officer caught on video assaulting a demonstrator.
The clip, posted on YouTube, shows the officer
kicking a man from behind as he walks away from
the January 26 rally in Baku before slapping him
hard in the face:
In a country like
Azerbaijan, where as many as 40% of the population
is less than 24 years old, the authorities are
increasingly viewing social media as a threat.
"It's obvious that the government is
afraid of social media, considering that it has in
the past targeted bloggers and other social-media
activists who have called for public protests,"
says Giorgi Gogia, senior researcher on the South
Caucasus for Human Rights Watch.
"The
increased fines for organizing and participating
in unsanctioned rallies are meant to frighten
activists who use Facebook or other social media
to express their frustration with authorities."
It is, of course, much too early to
ascertain whether the protests will grow into a
genuine challenge to Aliyev's rule. In any event,
Gogia says Azerbaijan's strongman would be well
advised to take the current unrest as a "wake-up
call".
Copyright (c) 2013, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036.
(To view the original
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