SPEAKING FREELY China seeks military friends in Central Europe
By Paul Behrendt
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
In the Year of the Dragon, Chinese diplomacy was very active in Central Europe. PRC Defense Minister Lian Guanglie visited two times, aiming to boost military cooperation with countries in the region. The main target of these activities was Poland, which responded quite positively.
China has been seeking rapprochement with Poland for years, but Warsaw's response to Beijing's advances is relatively recent, resulting in a three-day visit of then premier Wen Jiabao to Warsaw (April 25-28, 2012). Most talks so far have been of an economic nature, but the Chinese have decided to attempt to
establish a military relationship. In mid-May 2012, Lian Guanglie as defense minister visited Warsaw; it was the third stage of a journey that saw him go to the United States and Latvia earlier. This compilation proves that China has attached great importance to a partnership with Poland and Latvia.
The highlight of the visit was meeting with the Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak, who has been accelerating the development of military cooperation between the countries. Liang stressed the importance of Poland for China as a strategic partner and expressed hope for closer military partnership, which would help build stability as a regional and global power.
The Chinese were interested in the organization of joint exercises and training, meetings with officers of high rank, and even cultural events. The Polish side was much more restrained. Siemoniak pointed out that this was the first visit of a Chinese minister of defense in 57 years, but he also expressed Poland's interested in building friendly relations with China in the military arena.
Polish-Chinese military cooperation has never been very deep. Before anything could develop, China got hostile with the Soviet Union. In this conflict, Poland was, of course, on the side of Moscow. In the 1980s, Chinese policymakers considered the possibility of introducing to Poland and other Eastern Bloc countries reforms similar to those applied by Deng Xiaoping. Their calculations were flawed. After the fall of communism, Poland was too busy entering into European structures and attempting to build partnership with the United States to deal substantively with relations with Asia.
Given the great sympathy and interest on the part of the ruling circles in Beijing and (especially) Hanoi, one must now consider this as having been very good opportunity missed to build deep and very economically beneficial relationships. A breakthrough was made in December 2011 with the visit of President Bronislaw Komorowski to China, and the establishment of a strategic partnership. Finally, the Polish side expressed its interest in a broader economic cooperation.
Military cooperation had been established earlier: in 2009, an agreement on cooperation was signed. As a result, Polish universities accept Chinese military as exchange students. Both ministers hailed the greatest success so far achieved in cooperation in the field of military medicine.
In mid-November, Wang Zhizhen, senior political advisor and vice chairwoman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, visited Poland by invitation of the "Polish House" Civic Association of Poland. She participated in the opening session of an international forum regarding China-Europe nongovernmental organizations' role.
The Polish military paid another visit to China, led by First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces General Mieczyslaw Gocul.
In mid-December, the commander of the Polish navy, Admiral Tomasz Mathea, met in China with Liang Guanglie and the commander of People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), Admiral Wu Shengli. Mathea also visited the naval bases in Qingdao and Shanghai. Wu hopes for enhanced cooperation between the two navies - he proposed an exchange of cadets and young officers to his Polish counterpart.
The Polish navy is the weakest component of the Polish armed forces as a result of years of lacking funding and a complex conception of modernization and development. Successive governments also have not attached much importance to the navy, concentrating much more on the defense capabilities of the air force and army. Recent plans of modernization and development of its navy presented by Ministry of National Defense have been under fire from naval experts and even its officers. Cooperation with PLAN is therefore a great opportunity.
Liang Guanglie began his second European tour in January, visiting Slovenia, Macedonia and Ukraine. In all capitals, Chinese diplomacy had the same targets: deepening bilateral ties and developing or establishing military cooperation. Everywhere, Liang was warmly welcomed. The president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich, even said that closer military cooperation would greatly enhance an existing strategic partnership.
Cooperation with Slovenia and Macedonia is something new, but military ties with Ukraine have solid foundations. In the late 1990s, China bought the unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag, known today as Liaoning, from Kiev. It was the first vessel of this class in PLAN. Several years later, also from Ukraine, the Chinese bought one of the prototypes of the carrier-based fighter Su-33, which was used to develop its Chinese equivalent, the J-15.
Now the question arises as to why China is so interested in military cooperation mainly with Central European countries. All are post-communist countries, and Poland, Latvia and Slovenia are also members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union.
It would be too great of an exaggeration to say that China needs new allies in its strategic games with Russia; much more realistic is seeking stronger leverage with the EU and NATO. Despite the efforts of Brussels, Beijing refuses to treat the European Union as a whole and has made arrangements separately with individual member states - the best deals being made by Germany and France.
Paris has been seeking to lift the embargo on the sale of military technology to China for many years, seeing that as a chance to gain millions of dollars in profit. Similarly for Warsaw and Kiev, the Polish defense industry has for years been known for the implementation of effective, simple and cheap solutions at a high technological level. These are most attractive to the PLA.
In the case of lifting the arms embargo, it would be easier for China to start production of Polish equipment than that of French or German origin. In addition, joint maneuvers and exercises provide ample opportunity to familiarize with the current technological solutions. Left-wing opposition in Poland, even before the visit of Liang Guanglie, said that the center-right government wanted to reduce the budget deficit with the help of arms exports to China.
Poland and Ukraine have occupied a strong position in the arms trade in Asia. For years, Poland has been the main provider of armored recovery vehicles for India, with over 500 units of the WZT-3 sold. India is also very interested in cooperation. Poland also won a contract for the supply of 48 MBTs (PT-91M) and 6 ARVs to Malaysia, defeating Russia. In the past few years, Ukraine has become the main supplier of heavy equipment to Thailand. Bangkok bought a total of 49 T-84 main battle tanks, with the option for 150 more and over 200 BTR-3 armored personnel carriers.
Another issue is whether the China's offer, in addition to potential financial gains, will be attractive to its new friends. The answer is not so positive for China. The reasons are, however, inherently more psychological than substantive. In Central Europe, China is regarded as a manufacturer of cheap imported goods, often not of the best quality, which are hitting local industry. The offer of economic cooperation is regarded with great interest, yet for the majority of decision makers and the public, military cooperation with China is so exotic that it is difficult to treat the offer seriously. This is changing.
Another problem, especially in Poland, is the attitude of the media, which is, whatever shade of opinion, quite malevolent to China. It is the media that thwarted attempts at "mercantile diplomacy" undertaken by socialist president Aleksander Kwasniewski (1995-2005). His successor, Lech Kaczynski, during his visit to Asia, skipped Beijing, visiting among others Mongolia and Japan. With the Polish defense ministry now most interested in deepening cooperation with China, commanders of all types of its forces have given themselves a "green light" for building good relations with the PLA.
Paul Behrendt is a freelancing publicist specializing in international and military affairs and one of the main contributors to the Polish-Asia think-tank CSPA.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
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