US, China military top brass take aim
By Brendan P O'Reilly
The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey, visited Beijing for high-level talks with his Chinese counterparts at a time pressures are mounting between the two powers, as nuclear threats multiply on the Korean Peninsula, and as the two powers trade accusations of exacerbating tensions in Asia.
Despite the obvious differences in strategic interests, both sides are intent on maintaining the current status quo and avoiding any accidental clashes. The military-to-military relationship between the globe's two most powerful nations is an increasingly important factor in upholding Asian stability.
Dempsey had wide-ranging talks with Fang Fenghui, his
counterpart in the Chinese People's Liberation Army. During a joint press conference in Beijing, Dempsey defended the US military presence in the region, stating that the US "will continue to be a Pacific power ? We seek to be a stabilizing influence in the region ? In fact, we believe it would be our absence that would be destabilizing in the region, not our presence." [1]
Dempsey was clearly trying to justify the US military "pivot" to Asia and calm Chinese nerves over the issue.
General Fang Fenghui's statements at the press conference were strikingly cordial regarding the massive military presence of a rival nation. Fang stated that the Sino-American military relationship:
? not only concerns the relations between the two armies, but also affects the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. ? The Asia-Pacific region has become the most vigorous place in the world and we share the responsibility of jointly safeguarding the peace and stability in the region. ? We respect the US interests in the region and are glad to see the United States play a constructive role on Asia-Pacific affairs. [2]
Fang went on to call for strengthened communication between the two militaries, and coordination in the event of a regional crisis. Fang also said both militaries will conduct a joint anti-piracy drill in the Gulf of Aden, as well as an exercise simulating a combined disaster-relief operation.
When leaving Beijing, Dempsey had tempered praise for China's stance on the ongoing nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula. While acknowledging that the Chinese government did not offer many specifics of how they would pressure Pyongyang, Dempsey nevertheless stated, "Unlike sometimes the reports you would get that they're less interested than they probably should be, or that we'd want to them to be, I leave here believing that they're very interested in trying to contribute to stability on the [Korean] peninsula."[3]
However, the summit between China and America's top military brass did not consist entirely of friendly platitudes. The two sides discussed serious issues of contention - such as cyber security and America's alliances with regional actors who contest China's territorial claims.
In Beijing, Dempsey responded to a reporter's question about the "three obstacles" to Sino-American military cooperation: US weapons deals with Taiwan, aggressive reconnaissance against Chinese targets, and "discriminatory laws against China" (the last point refers to a continuing US arms embargo against the People's Republic of China). Dempsey acknowledged important differences, but still struck a conciliatory and realistic note:
We talked about all three of those issues today, and another three, four or five beyond that. And maybe isn't that the point? It's the first time we've spoken about these issues. [4]
Despite Dempsey's claim that the current talks broke new ground, official Chinese media has long complained of these three issues. In 2011, a reporter from Xinhua brought up the exact same issues to Mike Mullen, Dempsey's predecessor as Chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff.
The Chinese government views arms sales to Taiwan, aggressive surveillance of their mainland, and military sanctions as important threats to their territory and sovereignty. From Beijing's viewpoint, these issues have long been the largest hindrances to building trust with the American military.
Nevertheless, the current Sino-American military rapprochement is an important milestone in bilateral ties. Besides the conference with General Fang, Chairman Dempsey also met with China's new paramount leader Xi Jinping. The timing of the ongoing detente is particularly interesting, for it comes at a period of steadily increasing bilateral and regional tensions.
Areas of contention
China's military this month published a "white paper" outlining its overall military policies and posture. While not directly naming the United States, the paper alluded to America's regional role:
Some countries are strengthening their Asia-Pacific military alliances, expanding military presence in the region, and frequently making the situation there tenser. [5]
When asked directly about America's stated intention to deploy more military assets in the region, Colonel Yang Yujun of China's Defense Ministry said: "Certain efforts made to highlight a military agenda and enhance military deployment and also strengthen military alliances in the region are not in line with the common interest. [6]
Indeed, in the wake of the US announcement of the "pivot" towards Asia, China has faced a renewed territorial rivalry with US ally Japan, as well as increased tensions in the South China Sea. From the Chinese perspective, the amplified US military presence emboldens the hardline elements of Japanese politics into a more proactive stance. Massive American military assets are seen as a threat to China's territorial claims - indeed, it seems unlikely that local states could mount an effective resistance to Chinese supremacy in the absence of American firepower.
The American government sees things differently. From the perspective of the United States, a strong military presence serves to provide balance to the region, preventing any rash actor from making a destabilizing move.
When leaving Beijing, Chairman Dempsey told reporters "In the case of Japan, I was careful to remind them [China's senior leaders] that the US has certain treaty obligations with Japan, that we would honor." He also called on all sides to keep a level head and avoid any accidental escalation: "I think the heightened risk is a function of heightened rhetoric that could produce emotional outcomes at the tactical level, that could frankly get away from the control of the central level." [7]
The ongoing dispute by arch-rivals China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands is yet another element leading China and the United States towards confrontation. Dempsey has directly warned Beijing that American forces will help Japan maintain control over the disputed islands. Meanwhile, a joint Japanese-American drill simulating the recapture of an isolated island has been scheduled for the summer. This drill was quickly condemned by China's Foreign Ministry.
The strategic environment in East Asia is further complicated by the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula and mutual Sino-American accusations of cyber attacks. China has the most to lose from a nuclear North Korea (such a development inspires the Japanese to boost their military, and provides a justification for the massive US presence in the region). At the same time, China cannot abandon a buffer state when the US military is increasingly deployed near China's borders.
American military posturing in the Pacific is a classic example of "preparing for the last war". China cannot hope to match America's massive fleet of aircraft carriers in the medium term, so instead China is investing in carrier-killing missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and other experimental technologies. Boosted Chinese investments in cyber warfare and other unconventional capabilities are an attempt at counterbalancing America's conventional military superiority.
Indeed, General Fang hinted at the potential of Chinese cyber capabilities during his press conference with chairman Dempsey. When asked about the possibility of joint efforts to set international rules for cyberspace, Fang warned: "If it is not managed well, it may bring damaging consequences. If security cannot be guaranteed, it is not an exaggeration to say that the damage of consequences could be as serious as a nuclear bomb." [8]
Maintaining the Pacific Ocean
Regardless of divergent strategic interests and widely different views on America's increasing Asian footprint, China and the United States have much to gain from deepening their military lines of communication. Shared interests regarding disaster relief and anti-piracy are significant. Even more important, both sides want to avoid any accidental clashes, as American military assets will increasingly find themselves in contact with Chinese forces in the Pacific.
The frank talk between Chinese and American military brass is a sign of practical thinking and mutual respect. While China and America are indeed rivals, they needn't become enemies. Both sides have stressed a desire to avoid becoming entangled in a costly dynamic of confrontation.
However, serious differences may develop organically as regional and global influence transfers from Washington to Beijing. The United States has been the world's largest economy for roughly one hundred years. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, China's GDP should overtake America's within the next five years. This represents a massive and rapid shift in relative power.
It seems the US pivot towards Asia may be partially inspired at maintaining US military hegemony after losing economic ascendency to the Chinese.
This is a highly risky strategy. First, in the wake of the costly and disastrous wars of the last decade, the US is keenly interested in avoiding an actual fight with a power such as China. While the US military is no paper tiger, actually utilizing American military forces against the Chinese in an attempt at maintaining global dominance would be strategically reckless.
Secondly, deploying advanced military assets thousands of miles away from home is enormously expensive. By positioning military assets in Asia, the American government may be indirectly speeding China's rise to a position of relative might. The example of the Soviet Union comes to mind: expensive military hardware is useless at maintaining geopolitical advantage if a country neglects internal economic growth and infrastructure.
Of course, China's leaders face their own risks stemming from their rise to superpower status. Many of China's neighbors fear Beijing's increasingly apparent regional ascendance. China must avoid antagonizing neighboring countries and driving them in to Washington's arms. Perhaps the most important area of contention between China and the United States over the coming decades will be in the court of Asian public opinion.
General Fang's cordial and practical words regarding America's military imply that China is taking a wise approach to countering American martial prowess. China is taking steps to offset America's conventional advantage through non-conventional means. However, the best way for China to counteract America's military superiority may be to ignore it entirely and wait. Deng Xiaoping's advice for China to "Hide your capability and bide your time" is still very practical in the current strategic atmosphere.
For now, increased military-to-military communication between America and China will serve to establish trust and prevent local clashes from growing into global catastrophes. Despite the emerging rivalry, China and America can keep their relationship cordial in an atmosphere of mutual respect and honesty.
Dempsey and Fang have done their respective countries, and the entire region, an important service by directly addressing both power's joint interests, as well as the many areas of contention.
Brendan P O'Reilly is a China-based writer and educator from Seattle. He is author of The Transcendent Harmony. He may be reached at oreillyasia@gmail.com
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