SINOGRAPH Beijing
nurtures new foreign policy thinking
By
Francesco Sisci
ROME - North Korea's
testing for the third time of a nuclear device
goes against all the better advice from the world,
and amid unprecedented stern warnings from
Beijing.
The underground explosion on
Tuesday will not simply test Pyongyang's nuclear
capability but also Beijing's resolve to confront
a restive neighbor that was once described as
being as close to China as lips and teeth. And
this can't be limited to the official reaction
from Xinhua news agency saying: "It has come
to a point for all parties
concerned to think and act rationally to create
favorable conditions to revive the long-stalled
six-party talks and avoid a disastrous fallout.
Here there is a bigger and different
picture in foreign affairs that starts to unfold
in China.
Less than a week before the
test, the Global Times newspaper (the most widely
sold in China and published by the official
newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, the
People's Daily) on February 6 released a
revolutionary commentary on North Korea. The
article threatened a split from North Korea, as
happened with the Soviet Union, if Pyongyang moved
ahead with its third nuclear test. China has
concerns but does not "fear" North Korea or the
fallout from possible developments in North Korea.
The statements invited Pyongyang to step up to a
mature level of ties rather than one based on
blackmail. The commentary said:
Some believe that the US, Japan, and
South Korea are provoking trouble for ties
between China and North Korea, and China cannot
fall for this. This kind of provocation may be
true. But China cannot fall into a new trap in
trying to avoid this kind of snare and end up
having its nuclear policy kidnapped by North
Korea.
Moreover, the article noted
that "in neighboring countries the concept of
being 'pro-American' has changed. Which is not to
be an enemy of China."
The allusion is to
South Korea, which although definitely allied with
the United States, has in recent months sided
against Japan (another pro-American country) in
the dispute between Beijing and Tokyo over the
sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands.
China
sees the complexity of international relations and
recognizes that to solve the issue of the islands
it must look at the broader picture. Americans may
not care too much about the Senkakus and may be
more concerned about much more delicate North
Korea. On this, Beijing takes a very strong,
public stand, which is exceptional for them since
the Americans have taken a softer tone, although
they are always firm. US Ambassador Joseph
DeTrani, a former CIA director who spearheaded the
six-party talks on North Korea, recently urged
Pyongyang to desist from the test in an article
for Asia Times Online (see Resolve
the North Korean nuclear issue, Asia Times
Online, January 29, 2013). He did so without
making threats but by appealing to reason and
explaining the benefits to North Korea if they
took a more conciliatory policy.
China has
also increasingly distanced itself from Iran in
recent months. China has reduced its oil imports,
and Americans recognize that China's new position
has been instrumental in pushing Iran toward a
more conciliatory attitude to nuclear talks.
Finally, Beijing is easing up on the
Senkaku Islands issue. This week, Tokyo publicly
accused the Chinese navy of locking her missile
tracking radar on two Japanese naval vessels.
According to military experts, this had happened
in the past but before it was never made public.
This kind of action - the "provocation" of
deciding to give publicity to an event which is
not really new - would normally make Beijing feel
backed into a corner and spark a new Chinese
outcry. This time however, Beijing has chosen to
play down the controversy by announcing an
investigation into the matter and by claiming that
the Chinese ships were not pointed at anything.
Basically what is happening is new success
across the board in Chinese foreign policy in the
region. The Senkaku Islands will not be returned
to China now or anytime soon, but Beijing didn't
truly expect that in any case. Beijing has instead
confirmed something that was not previously clear:
that the islands are disputed, which to this day
Japan does not admit. China does so because in the
light of the recent confrontation the whole world
sees that the islands are disputed.
This
situation on the Senkaku then creates a different
backdrop for negotiations over the next decade
between China and Japan on gas fields in the area.
The central point of the dispute has been whether
the ownership determined the continental basis and
thus the maritime border. For years, Beijing has
argued that the Senkakus were legally "rocks"
(they could not be used to determine the maritime
border), and Tokyo said they were "islands". Then,
although Japan won the contention that the Senkaku
are to be considered "islands", China objected to
Japanese possession of the islands, and now after
months of friction, China has in fact tried and
won the case before the world.
To this
achievement could be added the possible further
success of bringing North Korea under stricter
control after decades of waywardness. The Global
Times article hinted that if Pyongyang didn't
cancel its test, China - North Korea's sole
supplier of energy (70%) and food (from 30% to
50%) - might cut aid. Both possibilities open new
scenarios in East Asia - and also in the Middle
East and Iran. This effectively offers the US the
prospect of rethinking its focus in Asia and
considering less confrontation and more
cooperation with Beijing, which in turn would have
huge repercussions globally.
Many things
are still open, but definitely a new thinking is
blooming in Beijing on international affairs and
the US pivot in Asia can't ignore this.
The onus in the next days is on Beijing:
how will it react to Pyongyang's defiance and if
this will be somehow the beginning of the end of
the hermit kingdom and this will bring the region
closer together; or if Pyongyang will manage, as
it did many times in the past, to drag Beijing
away from the rest of the global community. Will
then China be able to find a third way?
Francesco Sisci is a columnist
for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore and can be
reached at fsisci@gmail.com
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