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OPINION
Democratic progress: A
matter of perspective
By Henry C K
Liu
That the Wall Street Journal has an ax to
grind is not news. It is after all a mouthpiece for Wall
Street, as its name declares. It is a respected
newspaper with a serious readership, primarily because
its contents are of high quality and its reports usually
accurate. Its editorials are influential even though, or
perhaps because, its editors view the world from the US
perspective. Yet at times, its editorial page falls
below the normal high quality of its other pages.
On Monday, July 1, the fifth anniversary of Hong
Kong's return to Chinese sovereignty, the Journal ran an
editorial titled "Hong Kong's lack of progress". The
editorial gave credit to China for keeping its pledge to
respect local autonomy under the "one country, two
systems" formula. It criticized Hong Kong Chief
Executive Tung Chee-hwa for having been "overly eager to
show fealty to Beijing and so has tried to anticipate
its wishes instead of acting in Hong Kong's best
interest". The editorial's premise was that China's
wishes are not congruent with Hong Kong's best interest,
and that the chief executive must choose one over the
other. Surely the Journal editors know that the governor
of any state in the United States does not have that
dilemma. It is generally accepted that what is good for
the country is also good for the locality.
The
editorial criticized the chief executive for not moving
fast enough on setting a timetable toward the goal of an
elected executive and legislature. The criticism is
flawed on both matters of fact and principle.
The editorial failed to recognized that both the
chief executive and the legislature are already elected
by a broadly representative selection committee whose
members are returned as prescribed by electoral law.
There are parallels between the Hong Kong Selection
Committee system and the US Electoral College with
regard to the principles of representative democracy.
The gradual expansion from a broadly representative
selection committee to universal suffrage is defined in
the Basic Law, Hong Kong's constitution, Article 45 of
which states: "The method for selecting the Chief
Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual
situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
and in accordance with the principle of gradual and
orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of
the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon
nomination by a broadly representative nominating
committee in accordance with democratic principles. The
specific method for selecting the Chief Executive is
prescribed in Annex I: Method for the Selection of the
Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region." The evolution of the political process of Hong
Kong is set by the Basic Law. It is not within the
perquisite of the chief executive.
The editorial
simplistically proclaims the gospel of popular election
of chief executives as the only lasting solution for
Hong Kong. Yet popular election is not part of the US
election process. Many US presidents failed to get a
majority of popular votes. It should be noted that in
elections before 1872, presidential electors were not
chosen by popular vote in all states. John Quincy Adams'
election in 1824 was by the House of Representatives,
which chose him over Andrew Jackson, who had a plurality
of both electoral and popular votes, but not a majority
in the electoral college. Besides Jackson in 1824, only
two other candidates, both Democrats, receiving the
largest popular vote have failed to gain a majority in
the electoral college: Samuel J Tilden in 1876 and
Grover Cleveland in 1888.
To date, there have
been 18 "minority" presidents in US history: 1824, John
Q Adams, 29.8 percent of the popular vote; 1844, James K
Polk (Democrat), 49.3 percent; 1848, Zachary Taylor
(Whig), 47.3 percent; 1856, James Buchanan (D), 45.3
percent; 1860, Abraham Lincoln (Republican), 39.9
percent; 1876, Rutherford B Hayes (R), 47.9 percent;
1880, James A Garfield (R), 48.3 percent; 1884, Grover
Cleveland (D), 48.8 percent; 1888, Benjamin Harrison
(R), 47.8; 1892, Grover Cleveland (D), 46.0 percent;
1912, Woodrow Wilson (D), 41.8 percent; 1916, Woodrow
Wilson (D), 49.3 percent; 1948, Harry S Truman (D), 49.5
percent; 1960, John F Kennedy (D), 49.7 percent; 1968,
Richard M Nixon (R), 43.4 percent; 1992, William J
Clinton (D), 43.0 percent; 1996, William J Clinton (D),
49.0 percent; 2000, George W Bush (R), 47.8 percent.
The 2000 presidential election was the first
time in 112 years that the candidate who won the popular
vote did not win the Electoral College.
The
Journal editorial also implied that Hong Kong's economic
problems in the past five years were somehow linked to
the lack of democracy. Serious analysis would suggest
that the culprit was neo-liberal market fundamentalism,
which led to global financial crises that also affected
Hong Kong. It is interesting that the day after the
editorial, Journal reporter Matt Pottinger filed a story
headlined "Hong Kong's bete noire is now its
benefactor", with the subhead "Five years after return
to China, city entreats regime it once feared".
At this moment, US politics is going through a
sea change toward populism in reaction to the excesses
of unregulated financial markets, forcing the
establishment to hunt down rogue chief executive
officers to save the thoroughly corrupt financial
system. All over the world, including Asia, the US
business model is being rapidly discounted. It turns out
that the US economic success of the past decade has been
built not only on a debt bubble, but a fraudulent one at
that. More and more Americans are beginning to fear that
unless the US political leadership takes bold actions,
the US economy may fall into a decade-long contraction
if left to the free market.
The US equity market
has not been an indicator of the economy. It has been an
engine of the economy, driving growth with its inflated
market capitalization. Despite a 60 percent fall of
share prices from their peaks, price-earning ratios are
still abnormally high by historical standards. Either
the falling equity markets will sap the wealth created
by market capitalization or earnings would have
difficulty justifying share prices, foreclosing
expansion for the next decade. The advantage of dollar
hegemony to the United States is in danger of waning as
foreigners become disillusioned with the myth of the US
as a safe haven. The war on terrorism appears to be
turning into a protracted quagmire that may make the
Vietnam War look benign.
Hong Kong may seem to
the Wall Street Journal to lack political progress, but
the problems facing Tung Chee-hwa are child's play
compared with those facing George W Bush.
Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New
York-based Liu Investment Group.
(©2002 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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