| |
COMMENTARY
Conflict in Kashmir: The
third bald man
By Qiao Liang and
Wang Xiangsui
(In February 1999, Qiao Liang
and Wang Xiangsui, colonels in the People's Liberation
Army, published Unrestricted Warfare, in which
they proposed tactics for developing countries,
especially China, to compensate for their military
inferiority to the United States in a high-tech war.
Mentioned prominently in the book was a certain Saudi by
the name of Osama bin Laden. This is the second of two
articles by the officers on China's unique approach to
international conflict.)
Part 1: Chinese-box
approach
When faced with an intensified
Indo-Pakistani conflict over Kashmir, both the United
States and Russia made prompt and effective responses.
US President George W Bush, apart from using his
favorite "telephone diplomacy", sent Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld to mediate between India and Pakistan.
As for President Vladimir Putin, he tried to bring
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani
President General Pervez Musharraf to the negotiation
table.
In contrast to the fast pace of the US
and Russia, China, which is geographically the closest
of the three to Kashmir and whose interests are more
closely bound with it, was slow in both action and word.
If this is associated with China's quiet acceptance of
the US military foray into Central Asia and Russia's
alliance with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), there is the feeling that not only is China
insensitive to the important changes in the geopolitical
environment among her neighbors, it is tardy in its
response to international crises. What is in the mind of
the Chinese?
The third bald man
"Two
bald men fighting for a comb" is an analogy drawn by an
expert on Central Asia affairs to describe the
Indo-Pakistani conflict in Kashmir. However, he has
forgotten that also vying for this Kashmir comb there is
a third bald man: China has territory in Kashmir too and
an important strategic transport route in that region.
Since China is not too interested in Kashmir and has a
close relationship with Pakistan, and Muslims constitute
the majority of population in that region, India's
overwhelming superiority in strength has to a large
extent been rendered useless. Because of these factors,
a delicate balance and peace in Kashmir have been
consistently maintained - assuming that none of the
concerned parties want to change the situation.
Apparently inspired by the Kosovo incident,
radical Muslims in Pakistan seem to have discovered a
new way to facilitate the independence of Kashmir: the
internationalization of the Kashmir Issue. Muslim
freedom fighters increased their cross-border attacks
with the expectation that this would attract
international attention and intervention in Kashmir.
These attacks, which are consistent with Pakistan's
strategic interests, have disrupted peace in the region
and heightened tension in South Asia.
India is
particularly upset by the "well-meaning neglect" of the
international community. The reason is not so much that
the attacks have led to Indian casualties, or concerns
about the domino effect of stimulating demands for
secession by Muslims in other areas of India, but rather
the international community's apathy toward her
interests and global power status. This is why India has
had such an intense reaction, preparing for total war
with Pakistan.
Whenever it comes up against a
crisis, Pakistan looks to China for assistance, but
China has its own interests to take care of. From
Beijing's point of view, China and Pakistan need each
other and have common strategic interests, but that does
not mean China has to do everything for Pakistan. In
fact, Beijing did not support Pakistan in the 1999
Kashmir conflict. Wanting to maintain peace with her
neighbors, China has tried hard to improve its
relationship with India since 1996. As the United States
increases its infiltration of South Asia, China is
particularly careful not to antagonize India, in effect
expediting military cooperation between India and the
US.
About two years ago China adopted a thorough
measure to curb the spread of the Kashmir conflict. This
time China's response to the Indo-Pakistani conflict is
especially slow. The reason is that China realizes the
United States, which is still tangled in mountain
warfare in Afghanistan, is anxious to extricate itself
from the Indo-Pakistani conflict, as is Russia, which is
afraid of being dragged into a war by India. As long as
the US and Russia oppose it, there will be no war
between India and Pakistan, at least not a total war.
"When the sky tumbles, the tall guys will hold it up."
Whenever possible, China should not stick its neck out:
this was the advice of the diminutive statesman Deng
Xiaoping. All his successors trust his wisdom.
On the other hand, China is highly alert to the
pursuit of global power interests behind the Kashmir
crisis, worrying that this is a setup by the United
States. This explains China's low profile in the current
situation. Foreign powers invaded China for 150 years;
in the past 50 years, it has been swept into various
wars with its neighbors. Remembering this, China cannot
be slow in responding to threats to its geopolitical
security. In this case, China even suspects that the US
and Russia intend to manipulate India and Pakistan into
the Iran-Iraq mode - a type of situation in which
conflict or tension is easy to manage but hard to
resolve. In such a situation the global powers can do
arms-export business and obtain other geopolitical
advantages.
If China is dragged into the Kashmir
conflict, India and Pakistan could become another Iran
and Iraq. Because of this, China is careful to avoid the
conflict and return the comb to the bushy-haired Bush
and the slightly balding Putin.
(©2002 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
