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The importance of Central Asia to China
By Ehsan Ahrari
While the
world is busy reading tea leaves to figure out whether
or when Iraq will be invaded, China is quietly enhancing
its strategic presence in Central Asia. Tuesday's
Financial Times reported that China Petrochemical Corp
(Sinopec), the country's No 2 oil producer, became the
second Chinese oil company "to buy into Kazakhstan's
giant North Caspian Sea project".
English
geopolitician Sir Halford Mackinder (1861-1947) once
observed that whoever controlled Central Asia would
wield enormous power in the world. In the 21st century,
that notion of "control" is outmoded. Even the lone
superpower, the United States, cannot think in those
terms. However, Central Asia is wide open for that
country, and two other great powers - China and Russia -
to make their influence and presence felt. For China,
having a presence in Central Asia, above all, means
having access to the enormous Caspian Sea oil reserves.
China is the third-largest consumer of energy
after the United States and Japan. It is also a country
whose economy is rapidly growing but which has unevenly
developing regions. Its southeastern coastal area is
experiencing particularly rapid economic development,
compared with other areas. This characteristic alone
underscores the fact that its energy needs in the coming
years will rise.
The official target for growth
of gross domestic product (GDP) for the 2001-05 Five
Year Plan is 7 percent. Even though the economic data
issued by the China's government have questionable
reliability, its GDP growth is reported to be down from
8 percent for 2000 to 7.3 percent for 2001. For the year
2002, it is reported to have registered an increase of
7.5 percent. Given the large amount of China-US trade,
China's economic growth was interrupted as a result of
the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States. But
that interruption proved to be ephemeral. People's Daily
on January 2 reported that for this year, the increase
in China's GDP is expected to be more than 8 percent.
However, in order to maintain an average of 7 percent or
even higher GDP growth, China will need guaranteed
access to secure energy sources.
China's energy
consumption has reported a noticeable jump from a total
of 4.36 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 1999 to 4.78
million bbl/d in 2000. The consumption for 2001 was
reported to be 4.9 million bbl/d, while oil production
from domestic sources was at 3.3 million for that year.
As an up and coming economy, China's energy consumption
is expected to exceed that of Japan's within the next
decade, reaching 10.5 million bbl/d by 2020.
In
an age marred by turbulence involving the regions
holding the world's major oil reserves, China recognizes
the need to diversify its sources of energy supplies.
Thus, it is acquiring interests in exploration and
production in different regions of the world. Its
largest oil company, China National Petroleum Corp
(CNPC), already holds oil concessions in Kazakhstan,
Venezuela, Sudan, Iraq, Iran, Peru, and Azerbaijan. Of
these, the most significant deal, according to one
report, is CNPC's acquisition of a 60 percent stake in
the Kazakh oil firm Aktobemunaigaz, whereby the Chinese
company pledged to invest significantly in the Kazakh
firm's development over the next 20 years.
In
addition, the China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) -
that country's third-largest oil company - purchased an
8.33 percent stake from BP Group. There have also been
discussions of a possible oil pipeline from Kazakhstan
to China.
There is no suggestion here that
China's oil-related activities are potentially troubling
either to Russia or the United States. In fact, China is
also involved in a discussion with Russia to build a
pipeline for oil exports. What is important to note is
that the Central Asian region remains an area of high
interest to China, Russia, and the United States. This
is also an area where the future great-power presence,
if not competition, is likely to intensify in the coming
years. Russia and China already have tremendous stakes
merely because it is their region of immediate
propinquity. Russia itself is busy negotiating an
ever-increasing number of oil agreements with countries
bordering the Caspian Sea area, save Iran.
For
the United States, Central Asia is especially important
in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks on its
territory, and also because anti-status-quo Islamist
forces are very much alive. At least for now, those
groups are lying low in the immediate aftermath of the
conclusion of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.
Once the United States gets busy with the Iraq invasion,
and its rebuilding after the ravages that invasion is
expected to cause, the Islamist groups in Central Asia
will reassess their own next move.
Central Asia
is also a region where misery prevails, and where the
world's worst despots rule. This is also an area about
which it can be stated with reasonable certainty that
political instability will occur in the near future. Of
all the great powers, China is only too cognizant of
that contingency. Besides, within its own borders,
China's rulers have been suppressing the aspirations of
Uighur population to be free. Ethnically and
religiously, the Uighurs are the same people as the rest
of Central Asia (with the exception of Tajiks, who
though of Islamic faith, are not of Turkic ethnicity).
Aside from quenching its ever-escalating
appetite for energy from the Caspian Sea and other oil
resources of the region, China appears to be reminding
itself of that observation of Makinder with a slight
twist: whoever makes its presence felt in Central Asia
would wield enormous power in the world.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria,
Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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