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Why China doesn't mind the war in
Iraq
By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING - A less vociferous than expected
response to the war on Iraq from Beijing reveals that in
weighing the consequences of the conflict, China is torn
between its fundamental strategic policies and economic
benefits.
As part of a permanent strategy to
oppose "US hegemonism", Beijing consistently sides with
any country punished by Washington and time and again
has tried to thwart any US efforts to pull together a
coalition in the United Nations against any other state.
As much as China fears it could easily become a
future victim of such punishment, for more than 20 years
it has also sought a peaceful international environment
to pursue its economic reforms.
Ironically,
China stands to be among the economic winners from the
current conflict.
"There is a silver lining to
the war," admitted He Maochun, professor of foreign
trade relations at the People's University in Beijing.
"We should set our sights on winning contracts for Iraqi
reconstruction after the war. Our model is South Korea
in the 1980s - they built a highway from Baghdad to
Amman and after the Gulf War in 1991. They undertook its
reconstruction."
He said the 1991 Gulf War
resulted in a loss of 33 percent of China's labor and
engineering contracts in Iraq. But the years since the
partial lifting of UN sanctions in 1996 have boosted the
resumption of bilateral trade and commerce.
"This time, we need to be even more proactive
and seize the business opportunities that will arise
after the war," He said.
Hopes to win handsome
deals when the oil-rich country begins to rebuild its
civilian infrastructure are just part of many gains
China could get from the war in Iraq. Acceleration and
concentration of foreign investment is another one.
"As the Iraq situation may have a bigger impact
over a relatively longer period than most people expect,
international investors are likely to transfer more of
their money to safe investment destinations such as
China," said Wang Jian, an economist from the Institute
of Macroeconomy under the State Development and Reform
Commission.
The trend is already visible from
the official figures released by the Chinese government
this year. Foreign direct investment jumped nearly 54
percent in the first two months of 2003. Pledged foreign
investment rose 59 percent during the same period. This
marked increase comes on the heels of a record US$52
billion of foreign investment China attracted in 2002.
More than anything else in the aftermath of the
war, China is concerned with securing low oil prices
when or if Iraq's oil exports come under US control.
Since China became a net oil importer in 1993,
its imports have risen steeply and are now essential to
sustaining its high economic growth rate. In 2002,
imports rose 15 percent on the year. Last year China
imported 71 million tonnes of oil, half of which came
from the Middle East.
To avoid becoming
over-reliant on Persian Gulf oil, it is pushing ahead
with long-term plans to contract oil and gas from
Russia, Indonesia, Central Asia and Australia.
Meanwhile, Beijing has taken a series of measures to
guarantee that the war does not disrupt the steady
supply of oil and does not cause huge price fluctuations
in the market.
China's three leading oil
companies will import oil from Indonesia, Sudan and
Venezuela, Yang Wencai, deputy secretary general of the
China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, told
the People's Daily. China is also reopening oil wells
sealed previously because of their relatively high
production cost.
Economic worries and
calculations have dominated the state-controlled Chinese
media ever since the first bombs began falling over
Baghdad last week. But nothing of the climate of
indignation whipped up after the US-led bombings of Iraq
in 1998 is visible nowadays.
Beijing's official
reaction - one of opposition to the war and the
violation of the UN charter - was featured prominently
on the front pages of many newspapers, but somewhat
dwarfed by the amount of information provided on the
scope and speed of US-led military action.
"War-related special publications have become
hot commodity," read the headline in the Beijing Youth
Daily on Saturday, noting the unusual interest with
which Chinese readers have taken to the news of a war
being fought far away from the country's borders.
One reason for this brisk newspaper business is
the unusual lack of restrictions on the war coverage.
Instead of trying to censor media reporting that might
inadvertently commend the US military might, Chinese
propaganda officials have opted for sending an
unprecedented number of correspondents to the conflict
region to provide a Chinese perspective on the issue.
Some media have openly carried reports on what Chinese
military could learn from the US war in Iraq.
Indeed, the first Gulf War helped Chinese
military discover a lot about the US way of fighting a
modern, high-tech war, said Liu Dingping, a researcher
with the Strategic Research Center of the People's
Liberation Army Military Affairs Statistical Institute.
"This is the fourth war the United States has
waged since the end of the Cold War, but there is no
reason for the Chinese military to feel ... inferior,"
Liu said in an interview with Guangzhou-based newspaper
Southern Weekend. "With each new conflict, we draw our
lessons. The bigger the number of military actions with
US involvement, the smaller the gap between the US and
China military."
(Inter Press
Service)
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