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In Beijing, diplomatic opportunities
abound
By
Francesco Sisci
 It's all up to the
US, says North Korea
SEOUL - This Sunday Beijing will be transformed
into a busy diplomatic hub. On Easter Day,
Christian-educated Indian Minister of Defense George
Fernandes, the erstwhile advocate of the "China threat"
theory and the man under whose direction India tested
its first nuclear weapons in 1998, will arrive for a
week of talks. A few days later, a North Korean and a US
delegation will arrive to open multilateral talks
together with the Chinese to solve the North Korea
standoff.
The Indian mission is extremely
significant, because it will bring to Beijing a hawk
with a full plate of issues: Chinese support of
Pakistan, the alleged Chinese observation posts in the
Bay of Bengal, the disputed 4,000-kilometer China-India
border. It is unlikely that there will be any major
breakthrough on any of these issues, but it could well
be the beginning of a thaw. This could also help cool
down the tension in Kashmir and in many restive areas of
Pakistan, where the mounting wave of Muslim
fundamentalism has not stopped and certainly threatens
India but could also affect China, home of some 20
million Muslims.
This could be the opening of a
new chapter for China, whereas the talks with the
Americans and the North Koreans could well be the
beginning of the end of one. For months Pyongyang had
been sharpening its rhetoric, throwing insults and
engaging in provocative behavior, seemingly begging to
be the target of the next US military attack. China has
fiercely opposed a military solution to the North Korea
problem, favoring dialogue instead. The United States
accepted this Chinese stand, requesting, though, that it
must be a multilateral dialogue, where the US would not
become a hostage to the talks and held as the only
responsible party if the talks failed. Pyongyang
conversely had insisted on bilateral talks, wishing to
stand chin to chin with Washington for the world to see.
China for weeks now has been forcefully prodding
the North Koreans to settle down and concede some of its
demands. Rumor has it that Kim Jong-il was summoned to
Beijing recently. A not-so-subtle reminder of who needs
whom was provided by the Chinese, who cut their flow of
oil to North Korea, essential aid for the isolated
regime, for three days with the dubious claim that it
was unintentional.
Beijing's message reached
Pyongyang's ears loud and clear. Pyongyang backpedaled
and agreed on multilateral talks. This was a diplomatic
triumph for China, proving that it could manage this
crisis without the use of force favored by the
administration of US President George W Bush. It also
brings China closer to the United States in the
management of North Korea. Having proved itself, Beijing
will be expected to keep Pyongyang on a short leash.
This increases the importance of Sino-American
cooperation: the US knows that North Korea can only be
controlled with Chinese assistance.
This new
relationship is built upon a complex new dynamic in the
region that has been strategically affected by the US
decision to wage a war in Iraq while ignoring the North
Korean threats. At the annual meeting of the Trilateral
Commission, held this past week in Seoul, senior
Japanese personalities argued that this created new
priorities for Japan.
Tokyo is extremely
concerned about the North Korean threat, but Washington
decided that Baghdad came before Pyongyang. This
signaled that US priorities might be different from
Japanese priorities, therefore Japan can't entrust all
of its security to the United States. It must be able to
take things into its own hands when necessary. This is
an argument for Japanese rearmament, which could also
have an economic value, as military expenditures could
help ease the present Japanese economic doldrums.
Besides, Tokyo has noticed that among the younger
generation in South Korea, the North is not perceived as
a threat, but rather as the object of pity and concern.
Consequently a North Korean nuclear program is not a
threat against the South but possibly a source of Korean
pride on either side of the 38th parallel,
notwithstanding the Japanese concern.
Japanese
rearmament should not be considered a threat against
China. The same people who work for an increased
Japanese military option are also those who have been
keeping close contacts with the Chinese military on the
solution of the North Korean issue and admit that in
recent months the Chinese have been very friendly. The
Chinese may understand Japan's need to take a more
active role in its own security. This understanding
could serve as a catalyst for China and Japan to foster
trust and forge stronger ties - and ultimately achieve
greater regional stability.
There is the
possibility of a creation of new constellation in East
Asia, with stronger cooperation among the United States,
China and Japan. But the new triangular relationship is
different form the past, when China aligned with the US
to counter the Soviet threat. The US and China can get
closer, but this will change the relationship of the two
countries with Japan. Therefore, Tokyo should perhaps be
allowed to rearm in order to allay its fears of
isolation. It is a new delicate and sensitive game that
could bind together the three nations as nothing before,
but it is also full of snares, as a sudden move by any
of the three sides could alarm the other two.
In
this new regional geopolitical realignment, however,
India must be included. Nobody can afford to ignore
India, a nuclear power with a massive population and a
rising economy. Both Tokyo and Washington have built
many bridges with New Delhi. Fernandes' visit to Beijing
is the occasion for China to make up with India,
although the list of grievances is extremely long, as is
the history of animosity and suspicion. But it could
well be an important first step. China must take this
first step with great decisiveness if it doesn't want to
be left behind.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co,
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
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