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Hu finally steps into international
spotlight
By Yu Bin
(Used by
permission of the Pacific Forum CSIS)
In the
next two weeks, Chinese President Hu Jintao will travel
to Russia, France, Kazakhstan and Mongolia for state
visits and summit meetings (Shanghai Cooperation
Organization and the Group of Eight). The rest of the
world will have a chance to size up the relatively
unknown "paramount" leader, barely out of the shadow of
leadership succession and SARS.
When Hu's
"fourth generation" of leaders debuted last November,
China finally was in the hands of the boomers, as Russia
is with Vladimir Putin and as the United States has been
since Bill Clinton. Unlike the eight-month honeymoon for
both Putin and Bush before running into their respective
real crises (Kursk sinking in August 2000 and terrorist
attacks in September 2001, respectively), Hu's three
months in office have been riddled with crises.
A month before China's 16th Party Congress last
November, the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula was
to unravel East Asia's delicate strategic stability. In
March, when Hu took over the state presidency, severe
acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) turned itself into a
health-care disaster, a political earthquake, and an
international embarrassment. All this has happened,
ironically, in the midst of the smoothest power
transition in the history of the People's Republic of
China (PRC).
Despite the magnitude of these
problems, Hu's government has managed to cope to some
extent with the foreign crisis while pushing hard to
fight back the domestic one. None of the crises are
over. Hu's team nonetheless seems to have gained more
credibility and respect.
Hu took over as head of
the Chinese Communist Party's Foreign Affairs Small
Leading Group in March after the annual meeting of
China's legislature, the National People's Congress. In
late April, China was able to persuade Washington and
Pyongyang to join trilateral talks in Beijing. However,
nothing fundamental has been resolved at this juncture,
the 50th anniversary of the end of the Korean War. The
talks themselves, however, were a positive step toward
soft-landing this inherently difficult and extremely
dangerous crisis.
SARS is proving to be a more
formidable challenge. Never in the history of the PRC
has so much been at stake for so many in such a short
period of time. When Hu's fourth generation was unveiled
six months ago, the vast Asian nation had been one of
the few places in the world relatively free from
large-scale terrorist activities. In reaction to the
outbreak of SARS and the initial denial and deceit by
governmental officials, Hu moved with decisiveness and
diligence to mobilize the medical community, liberalize
the press, punish irresponsible officials, and provide
help for the needed.
The change of guard in
China is not yet complete at this point, as former
president Jiang Zemin retains the position of the
powerful chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Despite this shadow, Hu's team quickly unveiled a
"kinder and gentler" platform late last year with a
series of actions to promote the rule of law and to
liberalize the media (see Hu's mini new deal, PacNet
Newsletter No 11, March 6). It seems SARS has really
sped up China's political reforms toward more liberal
and more humane, if not immediately more democratic,
governance. In contrast, post-crises trends in Russia
and the US actually led to curtailing societal liberty
and freedom.
Hu's foreign-policy skills are yet
to be fully tested. As part of the more indigenous
generation of leaders - as against Deng Xiaoping's
Westernized generation and Jiang's Russianized one, Hu
will present himself and China at various international
forums in the coming weeks. In Moscow, he will close the
deal for a 2,400-kilometer, US$2.9 billion Sino-Russian
oil pipeline and will try to revitalize the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization. His presence at the Group of
Eight in Paris will give Hu unique chances to be with
the world's axis of the rich and powerful. In both
multilateral meetings, coordinating with other heads of
states over the Korean crisis will be on the top agenda
for Hu.
To be sure, SARS and the Korean nuclear
crisis are far from over. In this "marry without
children" Year of the Goat, millions of newlywed couples
in China are postponing having children. Despite the
fanfare surrounding the Chinese New Year's Eve TV
extravaganza that launched the Year of the Goat, common
sense prescribes caution for and awareness of
misfortunes and possible danger.
No matter how
superstitious China's animal symbols may be for real
life, 2003 so far is "bad" or unsettling enough for the
rest of the world: the Columbia space shuttle disaster
on the Chinese New Year's Day, the arrival of the era of
preemption, general economic slowdown and deflation
around the world, the North Korea nuclear standoff, and
SARS. And we are barely halfway into the Year of the
Goat.
For Hu's fourth generation of leaders,
SARS may be hard to eliminate in the foreseeable future.
Its potential impact on China's vast countryside remains
unclear. Beyond Hu's China, Taiwan and the US will soon
log into presidential elections with uncertain impact on
cross-Strait and cross-Pacific relations. As a legally
"normal" state, Japan now, perhaps more than any time
since the end of World War II, is willing and able to
test its newfound freedom of action, including going
nuclear. It remains to be seen whether Hu's team will be
able to turn these crouching challenges and dangers into
hidden or real opportunities.
Yu Bin
is an associate professor of political science at
Wittenberg University, Ohio, and senior research
associate at the Shanghai Institute of American Studies.
He is also a regular contributor to Comparative
Connections, and co-author of Mao's Generals
Remember Korea (University Press of Kansas, 2001). He
can be reached at byu@wittenberg.edu.
This article is used by permission of the Pacific Forum CSIS.
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