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China-Russia summit: Giants strengthen
ties
By Jeremy Bransten
PRAGUE - Hu Jintao has chosen Russia for his
first official visit abroad since becoming Chinese
president. When he began his visit in Moscow on Monday,
Hu was repaying a courtesy extended by Russian President
Vladimir Putin, who last December became the first
foreign leader to meet with Hu after he assumed
leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.
But
experts say there is far more driving the
Russian-Chinese relationship than politeness. Key
economic as well as geopolitical issues will be
discussed during Hu's visit, among them possible
agreement on the construction of a 2,400-kilometer
pipeline from eastern Siberia to the Chinese city of
Daqing.
Aleksandr Konovalov, head of the
Moscow-based Institute for Strategic Assessments,
explained why this is the case: "Very important issues
will be discussed such as the use of energy resources in
Siberia and the Far East, the construction of a gas
pipeline to Daqin, and the increasing of oil and gas
deliveries from Russia to China. I think the problem of
Korea will figure prominently, although that is not a
bilateral issue. If you look at the issue, not only from
the military point of view and from the standpoint of
the unacceptability of the nuclearization of North
Korea, I would [underline the importance of] the issue
of a transport corridor through both Koreas and China to
link up with the Trans-Siberian railroad."
Dmitrii Trenin, at the Carnegie Institute in
Moscow, is the author of Russia's China Problem
and an expert on Russian foreign policy. He said that
since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow has been
forced to come to come to terms with Beijing's rapidly
growing economic might.
"For Russia, which
borders China, this creates a new situation - a new
reality," Trenin said. "Russia used to look upon China
as a backward, distant country. For a time it even tried
to dominate China. But these days, Russia has been
forced to acknowledge that China has surpassed it not
only in terms of population - which was always the case
- but in the size of its gross domestic product [GDP],
which is now five times [as large]. China is developing
at a much faster pace than Russia."
That makes
China an increasingly important economic partner. Both
sides have emphasized their desire to boost bilateral
trade, which currently stands at some US$12 billion a
year. China is especially interested in imports of
Russian military hardware and Russia, Trenin said, has
been relying on arms sales abroad as a key source of
revenue.
"Russia needs to sell China weapons
technology because the sale of armaments abroad is the
only way for industries in the military-industrial
complex to survive and receive some kind of profit. When
Russia's government is not placing orders for modern
technology with these military enterprises, they are
dependent on foreign clients. And China is one of the
leading clients," Trenin said.
Critics say the
policy is shortsighted. They warn that Russia, by
selling its superior weapons technology to China, will
ultimately undercut its own interests and help boost
China's geopolitical influence, to Moscow's detriment.
But Trenin said the Kremlin is not worried.
"Russia's military and political leaders
consider that in the near term and foreseeable future,
China will not present a military problem for Russia,
because Chinese arms purchases and the whole structure
of its armed forces are oriented towards other tasks -
above all Taiwan and to a lesser degree towards
Chinese-American relations. So they believe Russia can
rest easy on this issue," he said.
Geopolitical
questions, especially in the aftermath of the Iraq war,
are expected to weigh heavily on the Hu-Putin meetings.
After a period of tension over Iraq, Moscow appears keen
to repair its relations with Washington. China, Trenin
said, sees this as an opportune time to mount a charm
offensive.
"China wants to send a message to
Moscow and other capitals. China wants Russia to remain
a dependable [partner]. China does not want Russia to
become part of some alliance whose aim could be to
restrict China. China believes that now, when
Russian-American relations are emerging from their
crisis caused by the Iraq war, is the right time to look
for new opportunities," he said.
Those
opportunities extend to Central Asia, where China has
also been keen to check the United States'
post-September 11, 2001, presence. After his three-day
state visit, Hu will remain in Moscow for a summit of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which groups
together China, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Trenin explained the
importance of the organization to Beijing: "I'd say the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization is, for China, another
name for Central Asia. That is, thanks to this
organization, China can take part in discussions and the
resolution of questions tied to security and development
in Central Asia as an equal to the countries of the
region and Russia. This is important for China, because
new opportunities have been opened for the Chinese to
consolidate their position and raise their influence in
a very important region for them, without antagonizing
Russia, which has been the traditional power which has
long dominated Central Asia."
Hu leaves Russia
this Sunday, after attending celebrations marking the
300th anniversary of St Petersburg.
Copyright 2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with
the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC 20036
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