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Central Asia: Fears over China's
power
By Antoine Blua
PRAGUE
- China's rise as a "great power" is raising fears in
Central Asia that Beijing will eventually dominate the
region both economically and militarily.
These
fears come despite the friendly relations that have
developed between regional governments over the past
decade. China has repeatedly stressed that it wants to
offer cooperation, not domination. But such assurances
have not kept Central Asians such as Dushanbe resident
Abdelmalek Tordeli from worrying about the long-term
consequences of a Chinese superpower. "In my opinion
China will be one of the superpowers in the future.
[But] I do not feel any threat for Tajikistan right
now," he said.
Beijing's intensified diplomatic
activity in the region was highlighted this month when
Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Kazakhstan as part
of his first foreign trip as head of state. After talks
with Hu, President Nursultan Nazarbaev told reporters,
"There are no unsolved social, economic or political
issues between Kazakhstan and China today."
Central Asian officials are welcoming Beijing's
higher regional profile, especially in Kazakhstan, where
China offers an export alternative to the uncertain
Caspian Basin development.
But Richard Faillace
says Central Asian governments are still suspicious of
Beijing even as their ties with China grow. He teaches
foreign policy and diplomatic history at Kazakhstan's
Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic
Research in Almaty.
"There has always been this
fear - at least on the part of Kazakhstan's political
thinkers and policymakers - that someday there may be
some sort of Chinese military invasion in the region.
This is a very far-fetched scenario. I mean, I don't
think it's a feasible scenario, but it is in the
perception of the policymakers in Astana, and it's in
the perception of the political scientists. So I think
their policy is always guided toward want of appeasement
with the Chinese," Faillace said.
Rana Mitter
teaches modern Chinese politics and history at Britain's
Oxford University. He noted that most regional fear of
China is general, and rarely focuses on a specific
threat. Apart from Beijing's determination to raise the
flag of the People's Republic over Taiwan, Mitter added,
China is not behaving in an expansionist way. He said
Chinese authorities are committed to projecting
themselves as a peace-loving nation, and stressing that
everyone can benefit from China's economic growth.
"The Chinese government and Chinese officials
are extremely worried about the perception in the wider
world that China poses any kind of threat.
Diplomatically, the Chinese are always keen to project
an image of international cooperation rather than
confrontation. And they're very keen to be seen as good
neighbors within the Asia-Pacific region," Mitter said.
Territorial disputes had been a sore spot in
Chinese relations with Central Asia. But Beijing made
significant concessions after the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. It kept just 20 percent of the land
disputed with Kazakhstan; with Kyrgyzstan, it kept 30
percent. In the case of Tajikistan, China dropped most
of its claim to the Pamir Mountains.
But last
year's ratification by the Kyrgyz parliament of a 1999
agreement to cede some 95,000 hectares of land to China
prompted thousands of Kyrgyz across the country to
protest. Bishkek had previously transferred 30,000
hectares to Beijing under a 1996 border accord.
Doolot Nusupuv is deputy chairman of the
Kyrgyz-nationalist Asaba (Flag) National Revival Party.
He complained that the Kyrgyz government is making too
many concessions toward an increasingly intrusive
neighbor. "This is a problem. Our government should
strengthen our [national] spirit, lead the country in
the right direction, and develop our state in a positive
way. Instead, it tells us that 1.5 billion Chinese might
occupy our territory. Such an approach means our
destruction even before [Chinese aggression] occurs,"
Nusupuv said.
Prior the recent closure of the
border to prevent severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) from spreading to Central Asia, and the
establishment of a new visa regime put into force last
Saturday, an estimated 1,000 Chinese used to cross the
border into Kyrgyzstan every month.
According to
the new regulation, citizens on both sides of the
Kyrgyz-Chinese border need a visa to cross. Previously,
no visa was required by either side for journey of 30
days or less.
Central Asia's fears about China
are rooted both in history and concerns about future
jobs and regional influence. Murat Auezov, a former
Kazakh ambassador to China, said: "I know Chinese
culture. We should not believe anything Chinese
politicians say. As a historian, I'm telling you that
19th-century China, 20th-century China, and 21st-century
China are three different Chinas. But what unites them
is the desire to expand their territories."
Auezov questioned whether it will be Chinese
workers who will be hired to construct the planned
pipeline to link oil-rich northwestern Kazakhstan to
China and, if so, what the conditions of their stay will
be. The danger, he warned, is that the completion of the
project may lead to an inflow of tens of thousands of
Chinese migrants to Kazakhstan, including construction
workers, cooks and doctors.
Jorabeg Mirzaev, a
professor at Tajikistan's state university in Dushanbe,
is more optimistic. He predicts that regional relations
with China will deepen and prove fruitful for everyone
involved. "Of course China can threaten [us]. [But] if
we strengthen our relations, then China can help us," he
said.
For some Central Asians, the co-membership
of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and China in the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also
includes Russia and Uzbekistan, is a guarantee against
any kind of regional aggression from Beijing. "China
should not take any step to threaten Tajikistan, because
now the SCO exists. And China and Russia are not
supposed to do anything to threaten Tajikistan," one
Tajik man said.
The grouping was established in
1996 to help defuse tensions along China's borders with
the former Soviet Central Asian states. It has expanded
its focus to include the fight against terrorism,
extremism and separatism as well as the promotion of
economic cooperation.
(RFE/RL's Kazakh, Kyrgyz
and Tajik services contributed to this report.)
(Copyright 2003, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the
permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036.)
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