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The trouble with Tung
By Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - The
challenge of Hong Kong, where some 500,000 people on
July 1 took to the streets against their local
government, is only the latest of a series of serious
tests for Beijing. But it could have long-term
consequences for the stability of Greater China.
The people of Taiwan, who go to the polls next
March to choose their next president, are following the
developments in Hong Kong closely. The leaders in
Beijing have said time and again that their handling of
the territory would prove their liberal attitude in the
future handling of the Taiwan, once it decides to
reunite with the mainland. Suspicion and mistrust in
Taiwan over developments in Hong Kong could trigger a
drift from the mainland that in turn could make Beijing
nervous and heighten tensions with Taipei, which could
chill markets throughout the region.
The
question then is: How can this chain reaction be stopped
before it is too late? Unfortunately, there is no easy
answer.
When Beijing chose wealthy businessman
Tung Chee-hwa as Hong Kong's top man, it did so partly
to reach out to Taiwan's rich constituency. Big
entrepreneurs both in Hong Kong and Taiwan were promised
plenty of room and opportunities to grow in the mainland
in return for their support for reunification. With its
choice of Tung, Beijing was declaring that it was keen
to work for the development of sympathetic private
enterprises. Private capital was no longer the enemy of
China but was to become its staunchest ally in its
effort to reunify with Hong Kong and Taiwan.
In
the past years this strategy has paid off. The tens of
billions dollars' worth of Taiwanese and Hong Kong
investment in the mainland and the hundreds of thousands
of Taiwanese and Hong Kong people living on the mainland
prove that the rich people are convinced: Beijing will
cater for Hong Kong and Taiwan investments. In Taiwan
especially, many large groups have become a kind of
pro-Beijing fifth column, with the bosses openly
grumbling about the new inefficiencies of Taiwan's young
democracy while lauding the latest business-minded
technocrats from the mainland. And, as money talks, the
fact that big capital is switching its sympathies from
Taipei to Beijing is having a large impact in Taiwan,
where the independence-minded government of President
Chen Shui-bian can't work against the wishes of this
powerful constituency.
But this can have a true
large social effect only if the well-being of the
companies translates into the well-being of the common
people and the middle class. If that doesn't occur, the
well-being of a few companies will become a target of
envy and social protest from those who feel, and are,
deprived. In Hong Kong this is not happening - yet.
Since Hong Kong's return to the motherland, its tycoons
have become richer with a windfall of deals in the
mainland, but the regular salary man in the territory
has seen only shrinking income. First there was the 1997
financial crisis, then common people felt Tung was not
really caring for people's difficulties, then severe
acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) thrashed all hopes for
recovery this year. And then, to top it all, when
people's complaints grew louder, Tung tried to slap them
down with Article 23, a new "national security" law that
in effect would restrict freedom of opinion.
Tung's message was: You people of Hong Kong have
suffered and are giving me trouble because of that, but
I won't do anything for you, conversely I will shut your
mouth because worse times are ahead for you, while I'll
take care of my own business. The message was delivered
without even the smiles and handshakes any politician
learns are the stock of his trade. Tung put on a peevish
air, as if he were the wronged one and the Hong Kong
people were just ungrateful.
Beijing had in fact
long been aware of the truth about Tung's Hong Kong.
They knew Tung was not the right man to handle the
territory before the 2004 elections, which are scheduled
to choose in a democratic fashion some 50 percent of the
representatives in the consultative council, starting to
do away with the cumbersome and undemocratic system that
currently functions in Hong Kong. Tung had fulfilled his
duties in the first term, ie, he had reassured
entrepreneurs in Hong Kong and Taiwan of Beijing's
support. But he was more than superfluous for the second
term - he was a hindrance, as he could not reach out to
people and had no initiatives to spur the Hong Kong
economy.
But although this had long been clear
in Beijing, it could not spare the time to find his
replacement. Until last March Beijing had been engrossed
for years in the quest for a smooth political transition
from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao, and the choice of Tung's
replacement would have taken up scores of meetings and
long-drawn conclaves where a consensus had to be
reached. In other words, the lack of internal Communist
Party democracy that stalled a fast reaction on SARS
(see SARS spurs structural reform, April
26) also mired a decision on Tung, and in the end it was
easier to confirm the man than to replace him.
This internal systemic problem is still there,
and Beijing can hope in the short term only for stopgap
measures, such as postponing the ill-conceived and
controversial law on freedom of opinion in Hong Kong,
and waggle along without greater ruckus until the Hong
Kong elections and, more important, the Taiwan
elections, hoping for a more sympathetic president on
the island. But for this Beijing has to try, as it is
doing now, to distance itself from Tung, without taking
him away before the elections.
A possible choice
could well be to put Tung down after the elections,
select a vigorous successor who could send a message of
democracy and sensitivity across the Strait, in time for
Taiwan's presidential elections. He should be a
dependable man with good democratic credentials, and
possibly with some history of controversy with Beijing,
proving his independence. A choice of this kind would
reinforce Beijing's stature in Hong Kong, Taiwan and,
indeed, the whole world. Beijing has about six months to
come up with this name. That would be plenty of time for
this kind of decision in any system but this one, while
it is still dominated by its cumbersome features.
Meanwhile, SARS could strike back in the autumn,
possibly with vengeance, and Beijing might have its
hands tied with that emergency and no time to think
about Hong Kong.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times
Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
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