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China in space: Military
implications
By Arun Sahgal
NEW DELHI - Chinese leaders have always believed
prowess in science and technology to be an essential
ingredient of its national strength. From the very
beginning the conceptualization, design and development
of its space program has had a definite military
orientation, and consequently its control has always
rested with the Central Military Commission.
The
People's Republic of China's (PRC's) space program is an
outgrowth of the country's missile technology
development effort that began in early 1956 as a
consequence of the United States and the Soviet Union
seeking missile-launch capabilities. This was surprising
considering the fact that it was less than 10 years
after the founding of the PRC. While Mao Zedong had
focused the program on national security and national
prestige, Deng Xiaoping, concerned about economic and
scientific development, shifted the focus to practically
applied satellites with economic connotations. Project
863 was a focused science and technology development
plan that moved space back into a major position in
technology development.
For a nation to be a
space power it must develop composite, satellite-launch
and mission-support capabilities. The PRC has over the
years succeeded in creating full-spectrum, end-to-end
research, design, trial manufacture, production and
testing systems for both satellites and launch vehicles.
It is important to understand that the Chinese have
always regarded space as a frontier that holds the key
to success in maintaining a strategic balance of power.
Technological developments in concert with a
revolution in military affairs have made space an
important dimension of future warfare. The Chinese have
closely studied all the recent wars (Gulf Wars I and II,
and the Kosvo and Afghan wars) and have come to the
conclusion that in the ongoing revolution in military
affairs, victory is only possible through exploitation
of unknown fields in asymmetric warfare. It is in this
context that Chinese military planners have focused on
"information warfare" and "space supremacy" as the key
components of its battlefield "Supremacy Theory" as
enunciated in an October 28 People's Liberation Army
(PLA)Daily article, "Space is the commanding point for
the information battlefield".
The article says
that information warfare has two components, information
and intelligence. Target information and intelligence
are provided by information networks supported by
satellites, airborne warning and control systems
(AWACS), spy planes, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),
sensors etc. Consequently, battlefield monitoring,
information communication, navigation, positioning and
precision guidance all rely on satellites. Thus
construction of aerial eyes, aerial networks and
information umbrellas is extremely important for
successful high-tech warfare. Information superiority is
a key battle-winning factor that comes from space
supremacy. Conversely, destroying or capturing
satellites and other sensors, closing the information
umbrella, will deprive opponents of initiatives on the
battlefield, making it difficult for them to exploit
their precision-weapon capability. It is this broad
philosophy that has been the driving force behind the
development of space technology and systems.
Military dimension of manned space
flight
The fact that the PLA is firmly in control
of the space program is underscored by the fact that the
director of general armaments of the PLA, who also sits
in the Central Military Commission of the Chinese
Communist Party, leads the space program. Fusing of the
military and manned mission started with the unmanned
Shenzhou test missions that began in 1999.
China's spacecraft differs from the Russian
Soyuz in that Shenzhou's orbital module is designed for
extended missions after the return of the manned
capsule. Experts who have closely followed the Chinese
manned space launch have analyzed an ambitious program
of military experiments. In their view the forward,
orbital module of the spacecraft was designed to carry a
variety of mission equipment. Second, since the orbital
module remains in orbit after the service module and
re-entry capsule have returned to Earth, this means that
the mission equipment installed on the orbital module
practically corresponds to a large unmanned satellite.
Shenzhou V's two primary payloads included an
electronic intelligence payload mounted on the nose.
This consisted of two major components. UHF (ultra-high
frequency) emission direction finding was accomplished
by three Earth-pointing television-type antennas
deployed on long telescoping booms. Seven horn antennas
arranged in an arc supplemented these, which could
detect and localize radar transmissions. This
combination was designed to allow coverage of the entire
Earth's surface as the module passed over it. This is an
enormous leap in Chinese military surveillance given the
fact that China has never flown a major ELINT
(electronic intelligence) satellite. As the orbital
module is likely to remain in space for nearly eight
months, such a capability in effect provides China with
wide-ranging satellite cover over a variety of targets
such as the US carrier battle groups in the Indian and
Pacific oceans and over areas of interest in India,
Taiwan, Tibet etc.
The second military payload flown
aboard Shenzhou is an imaging reconnaissance package.
This comprises two cameras with an aperture of 500-600
millimeters. According to Mike Wade, curator of
Encyclopedia Astronautica, the use of two
different cameras indicates a hyper-spectral,
multi-resolution, combination mapping/close-look system,
giving a ground resolution of as much as 1.6 meters.
From this it can be deduced that the military missions
of future Chinese manned space flights are likely to be
military imaging reconnaissance. If the pattern of
earlier Shenzhou flights is followed, crew will be
tasked to identify targets in a controlled orbit lasting
six to seven days. This coincides with the duration of
the next manned flight, which has been planned for six
days.
The above capabilities are underscored by
the assertions of the People's Daily that the spacecraft
can carry out missions of reconnaissance and
surveillance better and allow the military to deploy,
repair and assemble military satellites that could
monitor and control military forces on Earth. This
raises the prospects that the future Chinese manned
space station, a model of which was shown at Hannover
Expo 2000, under Project 921-2, which could be deployed
as early as the turn of the decade, will have multiple
military missions. A future space station could enable
launching and repairing of military satellites, and cue
and guide future PLA precision-guided weapons such as
terminally guided ballistic missiles and new land attack
cruise missiles. China in addition has planned to launch
four high-resolution electro-optical satellites and four
cloud-penetrating radar satellites by 2006. These
satellites will allow twice-daily monitoring of any
target on Earth.
Two additional dimensions of
the Chinese space and satellite program merit close
attention. China's second space priority revolves around
developing a solid-fuel, four-stage satellite-launching
vehicle (SLV). On September 16, China tested an
indigenously developed four-stage, solid-fuel SLV, the
Kaitouzhe-1. KT-1 is based on a solid-fuel, long-range,
nuclear-capable ballistic missile. The SLV program
offers both civilian and military benefits in terms of
accelerating the pace and capability to launch
micro-satellites while reducing the cost of launches.
KT-1 can reduce the launch time from days to just 16
hours, much faster than any liquid-fuel rocket. However,
the most significant impact of this capability will be
the country's ability to build, rapidly deploy and
replace small communications, imaging and positioning
satellites - vital elements of any modern and
technologically advanced military. This technology can
also be utilized to launch interceptors in the
anticipated path of target satellite by using micro and
nano-satellites as effective interceptors.
According to Richard Fischer of the Center for
Security Policy in Washington, subsequent SLV launch
vehicles KT-2 and KT-2A will be based on the DF-31, an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that will
allow interception in the polar orbit used by many US
satellites. Such a capability has the advantage of
providing China with an effective anti-satellite
capability and negating the proposed missile-defense
system, thereby posing a threat to Taiwan, South Korea,
Japan and even India.
Yet another dimension of
the Chinese space program is development of application
technology of satellite navigation and positioning.
Having found that future PLA missiles will require
precise location signals that can be provided by
navigational satellites, China has developed the Beidon
Navigational Test Satellites (BNTS) program. It is
crucially important, as the United States can deny PLA
access to its global positioning system in the event of
impending or during hostilities. It has so far launched
three satellites, the third in the series having been
launched on October 12-13.
In addition to
indigenous development, China has agreed to invest
nearly US$200 million in the European Galileo system to
become an official development partner both as an
alternative system to the US Global Positioning System
(GPS) and to cash in on the European satellite market
with its navigational satellites.
Imaging and
navigational capabilities acquired by China have serious
security implications for India. Not only do they
enhance surveillance cover over Indian territorial
space, they also provide a greater degree of precision
and control to Pakistani missiles, improving their
circular error of probability (CEP) substantially.
Interestingly, Pakistan's October 3 launch of the Ghazni
short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), a modified version
of the DF11, had larger control fins near the nose,
indicating a greater degree of precision control, no
doubt a design that depends on input from the Chinese
GPS.
It is also noteworthy that the Chinese have
made an active bid to join the International Space
Station program and in the future could replace the
Russian Soyuz spacecraft. Sino-Russian collaboration
along with the European Union could usher in a lucrative
space-launch business for China, upstaging US domination
in this field. With experience and technology
refinement, China would be in a position to make its
space flights less costly and hence more attractive.
Conquering space represents an opportunity in
what China refers to as mankind's "Fourth Frontier" to
recapture its lost legacy of technological mastery and
innovation. The annual report on the military power of
the People's Republic of China, published by the US
Department of Defense, states that while the strongest
immediate motivation for the manned space program
appears to be political prestige, China's manned space
effort almost certainly will contribute to improved
space systems in the 2010-15 time frame.
Arun Sahgal is the first director of
Net Assessment, an office responsible for long-term
strategic assessments in India's Joint Staff.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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