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Beijing's ominous new threat on
Taiwan
By Macabe Keliher
SHENZHEN, China - Taiwanese investors on the
southeast coast of China got a shock recently when
officials from the Chinese Communist Party (CPP) showed
up and delivered an ominous message that, this time, the
threat of military action against Taiwan could be more
than mere rhetoric. And this was not the only sign that
a real shooting war may be in the offing.
The
visit itself early last week was no surprise. The CCP
officials came, just as they have during previous
cross-Strait crises, to explain the internal party line
to the country's most important investors. But the
message this time had a decidedly different
tone.
"We are willing to sacrifice the past 10
years of economic growth and development in order to
reunite the motherland," a provincial official somberly
told a senior manager at one of the south's largest
Taiwanese-invested companies. "It was a chilling threat,
one that made my hair stand on end," the manager
recalled.
Such threats came in stark contrast to
the ameliorating diplomacy conducted by the Taiwan
Affairs Office (TAO) the last time Beijing warned Taipei
about moving too far toward independence. It represents
a shift from public military maneuvers directed at
Taiwan accompanied by private conciliatory remarks for
Taiwanese investors, to public messages of peace and
stability accompanied by private warnings of war - a
clear indication that Beijing's Taiwan strategy has
evolved. Having witnessed the failure of a hostile
public relations strategy, Beijing is now walking the
path of a responsible power, gaining international
support for its cause while reminding those who need
reminding that it will use force. "More cunning but just
as deadly," said the head of a branch of a Guangdong
Taiwanese Investors Association.
Asia Times
Online has previously noted that Beijing's cross-Strait
strategy has changed in the past few years (see US-China-Taiwan: Missile diplomacy,
December 12, 2002). While developments in China over the
past few weeks concerning Taipei's plans for a
referendum are consistent with evolving shifts in
strategy, to see them played out on an international
scale where the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and
Taiwan policymakers appear to have an upper hand over
the cool rationality of economic development presents a
disturbing prospect not only for Taiwan but for peace in
the region.
Things appeared to be different the
last time TAO made the trip south. In the mid- to
late-1990s, Taiwanese investors were left with a feeling
of assurance and security even though the PLA was
conducting invasion exercises near the Taiwan Strait. In
an attempt to influence elections on Taiwan in 1996, and
again in 1999, to show its displeasure with
then-president Lee Tung-hui's remarks about
"state-to-state relations", Beijing held military
exercises off the coast, and in 1995-96 even launched
missiles into Taiwan's shipping lanes. Although war
appeared imminent, Taiwanese investors were assured it
was not. Concerned about economic stability, TAO deputy
director Chen Yunlin called on Taiwanese investors and
associations to declare that "no matter what will happen
across the Strait, all investment benefits of Taiwanese
on the motherland will not be harmed".
This
two-handed approach failed. If word did not get back to
Taipei of the soothing speeches from TAO officials, then
Beijing's bullying pushed voters further toward Taiwan
independence. In 1996, Lee Tung-hui was elected
president by overwhelming margins, and in 2000 Chen
Shui-bian was elected president on a pro-independence
ticket, as voters scoffed at Beijing's war rhetoric.
Since Chen's election, Beijing has kept military
threats from the headlines and not conducted any of the
"routine" military maneuvers off the coast. Many pundits
expected strong words from the Chinese leadership over
Chen's "one country on either side" statement last year
and the passage of a referendum bill in Taipei this
year, but instead got the soft-spoken Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao, who said, "We sincerely hope to see a
peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question ... however,
our endeavor for peace has time and again been
challenged by the separatist forces in Taiwan."
Although the PLA let Luo Yuan, a senior colonel
with the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, remind
the world about the likelihood of war ("If they refuse
to come to their senses and continue to use referenda as
an excuse to seek Taiwan independence, they will push
Taiwan compatriots into the abyss of war"), Beijing has
moved to garner support from the international community
rather than upset it and Taiwanese voters by blaming
Taipei for Beijing's need of a military option. Wen's
visit to the United States, absent talk about the "fires
of war" that his predecessor Zhu Rongji prophesied, won
US support for China's cause, with President George W
Bush granting the desired opposition to Taiwanese
independence while referring to President Chen
informally, as do the mainland Chinese, as "the leader
of Taiwan".
All this has been well and good,
giving the appearance of stability and Beijing's
commitment to its growing role in the international
community and comity of nations. But just as in years
past, Beijing is playing a two-handed strategy.
Behind-the-scenes preparations for war are being made.
Recent remarks from the PLA and party officials
from Beijing to the provinces indicate that the CCP is
preparing itself for the attainment of its political
goals at the cost of its economy. Although cross-Strait
economic integration has been viewed as a brake on
Beijing's military adventures against Taiwan (see Two bulls, one China shop,
November 21), even those with the most to lose - local
officials - are getting indoctrinated. "It is a
sacrifice we are willing to make," the provincial
official said when the senior manager raised the
prospect of him taking his operations and tens of
thousands of jobs back to Taiwan.
Such remarks
are believed by sources in China to be a reflection of
conditioning occurring within the party and are not just
meant for consumption by Taiwanese investors. With
Taipei veering further away from the path of
unification, Beijing is viewing the possibility of
military confrontation as very real (see China and Taiwan: Whose status quo?,
December 16).
Military preparations are being
made. While the 3 percent consumer inflation in recent
months is being blamed on everything from US hostility
to food shortages, rumors here say that the military is
stocking up and readying the country for war. A
personnel and accounting manager at a listed Taiwanese
company in Guangdong has noticed petroleum shortages in
the past month. "This is the first time in my 15 years
of working in China that we have ever had fuel
shortages," he said. "Our backup energy supply, which is
usually maintained at around four to six weeks, has
dwindled to seven days, and we can't get filled up more
that that."
Food prices have also skyrocketed.
In charge of feeding tens of thousands of workers, the
manager said the price of cooking oil increased twice in
October for a total rise of 26.5 percent. In fact, total
price increases for staple cooking supplies rose 17.88
percent in October. "I have never seen price rises like
this, not even during the 1996 floods," he said. Indeed,
the last time China experienced serious inflation was
when the Kuomintang (KMT) printed money and bought up
supplies during the civil war.
Beijing is not
printing money, to be sure, but the situation is eerie
all the same, enough to keep anyone from speaking on
record.
If Taiwan's referendum goes ahead as
planned, and if Chen gets re-elected next year and
presses for a new Taiwan constitution, Beijing will find
cross-Strait relations in a state it believes
inopportune. "Those [in Beijing] arguing for a tougher
approach will have a strong argument," said Denny Roy,
senior research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Center for
Security Studies. And all the elements for war could be
in place by that time.
(Copyright 2003 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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