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Happy New Year (?) Hong
Kong
By Ray Heath
HONG KONG -
New Year's Day is unlikely to be one of celebration for
Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong's besieged chief executive. The
occasion will be marred by the knowledge that thousands
of pro-democracy supporters will be marching in favor of
political reform.
It could actually be hundreds
of thousands, for exactly six months earlier, on July 1,
officials in both Hong Kong and Beijing were shocked
when half a million demonstrators gathered in Hong Kong
amid blistering heat to take part in a peaceful, but
telling demonstration of the growing support for a more
democratic system of government.
The trigger for
that march was the proposed enactment of subversion laws
under Article 23 of Basic Law, the constitution that set
up the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) in
1997. Stunned by the strength of opposition, the
government shelved the legislation, and secretary for
security Regina Ip, who had been singled out as the
intransigent architect of Article 23, turned in her
badge.
This victory reignited the stuttering
confidence of Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp, which
suddenly sensed that, for the first time since the
handover, they had a real chance of wining a more
democratic Hong Kong on their terms.
That
confidence, however, could be sadly misplaced. Beijing
has begun to make plain that when, or if, the Hong Kong
SAR sets out on the road to democracy, the Chinese
government will be acting as traffic cop. Statements
emerging from President Hu Jintao and other officials
leave no doubt that when it comes to universal suffrage,
the emphasis of Deng Xiaoping's "one country, two
systems" will be firmly on "one country".
Beijng's hardline stance was set out early in
December during the regular meeting Tung holds with
party bosses in Zonghongnai, the Communist Party's
enclave close to the Forbidden City. It was clear from
Tung's grim expression there that this visit was not the
usual back-slapping occasion, the kind which had been
routine in the early part of his stewardship.
Reports from inside left no doubt that nothing
had prepared the party leaders for half a million Hong
Kongers taking to the streets in an expression of their
disapproval for Article 23 and the Tung regime in
general. As the party's appointee, Tung would never be
criticized in public, but speaking fact-to-face, senior
officials questioned how he and his hand-picked cabinet
of insiders had become so out of touch with the people.
Just how out of touch they were became even
clearer when district elections held in late November,
which usually revolve around such issues as street
cleaning or community centers, became politicized and
the Democrat Party drubbed the previously dominant
pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of
Hong Kong.
If the results should carry though to
next year's Legislative Council (Legco) elections,
scheduled for late 2004, there is a real chance that the
neutered lawmaking body could gain some real clout, a
prospect which raises additional hopes that Hong Kong is
on the way to a universal system of one person, one
vote.
But all this talk has become too much for
Beijing, and it has started handing out reminders of its
interpretation of how the proposals for further
democracy set out in the Basic Law are really going to
work. The key article, Article 45 of the law, states:
"The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief
Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a
broadly representative nominating committee in
accordance with democratic procedures."
Currently, the chief executive is voted in by
800 members of an Election Committee. All are widely
believed to have been selected because of their leanings
toward the Beijing establishment, rather than any
independent views they may hold. This system, and the
voting system for Legco could change in 2007, according
to Annex 1 and Annex 2 of the Basic Law. But the wording
is ambiguous: "If there is a need to amend the method
for selecting the Chief Executives for the terms
subsequent to the year 2007, such amendments must be
made with the endorsement of a two-thirds majority of
all the members of the Legislative Council and the
consent of the Chief Executive, and they shall be
reported to the Standing Committee of the National
People's Congress for approval," it states in Annex 1.
Similar caveats cover Legco elections in Annex 2.
How the need for a change will be decided is not
clear. The chances of Legco's current structure ever
gathering the required two-thirds majority in favor of
sweeping changes against the will of the chief executive
or Beijing is remote, and even if it did, the National
People's Congress (NPC) would still have the final say.
A sharp reminder of Beijing's grip on the system
was handed out on December 5 by the official Xinhua news
agency. It reported the views of four legal experts who
said that anyone who thought that the constitutional
changes would be entirely an affair for the SAR,
misunderstood the rules. According to Xinhua, the panel
was aware of Beijing's growing concerns about Hong Kong,
its relationship with the mainland and the principle of
"one country, two systems".
"Hong Kong's
political system must pay attention to adhering to 'one
country'. The precondition for 'one country, two
systems' and 'one country' must not be compromised," the
news agency said.
Professor Xiao Weiyun, one of
those responsible for drafting the Basic Law, told
Xinhua that the law clearly states that the methods for
the selection of the chief executive and the formation
of the Legislative Council shall be specified "in light
of the actual situation and in accordance with the
principle of gradual and orderly progress".
So
far that progress has been painfully slow. The
government has ignored repeated calls from the
pro-democracy camp for public consultations on changes
to the method for electing the chief executive and Legco
members after 2007.
Under the Basic Law the
60-strong lawmaking body will, by 2007, continue to
include 30 members elected by functional constituencies
and representing commercial interests. This sector
invariably supports the government in crucial votes. The
remaining 30 members will be directly elected, but
democrats complain that given the power of the
functional constituencies, it is unrealistic to expect
any anti-government moves to obtain a sufficient
majority to be passed into law. They want 100 percent
elected membership as a target for elections in 2008.
Unless there is a major shift of policy in
Beijing, it is now clear that any move in toward full
elected membership would inevitably be blocked by the
NPC. It has enough problems with Taiwan politicians'
growing appetite for independence without finding
another poisoned shrimp on their shores. And faced with
the new reality of Beijing's hold on Hong Kong's
political progress, Tung Chee-hwa must resign himself to
a disturbed New Year's Day and many more beyond in 2004.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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