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France, Germany seek to resume China arms
sales
By Adam Wolfe
The
14-year-old European Union embargo prohibiting arms
sales to China may be about to fall, but that doesn't
mean sales will resume or that China will get French
Mirage jet fighters to match those sold to Taiwan.
The embargo was imposed by the EU and the United
States after the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre of
peaceful, pro-democracy demonstrators. Now France and
Germany are leading the charge to lift the ban, calling
the sanctions outdated and saying their ailing economies
need the business.
On January 27, French
President Jacques Chirac held a joint conference with
Chinese President Hu Jintao to celebrate the "Year of
China" in Paris. Chirac used the occasion to publicly
call for the lifting of the EU arms embargo on China. So
far France and Germany have succeeded in pushing the EU
to review the embargo and have urged the organization to
take action before the March inauguration of 10 new
members.
It appears that their push may prove
successful. Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief,
was quoted on February 4 in the Geneva newspaper Le
Temps as saying, "It seems to me, after discussions we
had a few days ago ... [that] the EU is ready to do it."
But even then, an EU arms transfer code of
conduct would still prevent immediate sales.
While the United States is opposed to lifting
the bans, it is a 1998 EU law that may ultimately render
any change to the embargo insignificant; the EU arms
business remains tightly controlled by a 1998 code of
conduct barring the sale of equipment that could be used
in regional conflicts or domestic repression - and these
proscriptions would still be enforceable on sales to
China.
Arms embargoes imposed for human
rights abuses
After the military repression of
pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, the US
and the member states of the EU imposed embargoes on
sales of arms to China. US State Department spokesman
Richard Boucher defended this decision saying, "We
believe that the US and European prohibitions on arms
sales are complementary, were imposed for the same
reasons, specifically serious human-rights abuses, and
that those reasons remain valid today."
Despite
Boucher's statement, the French have begun to see the
issue differently. Dominique de Villepin, the French
foreign minister, recently argued, "Our feeling is that
the embargo is out of date as relations between Europe
and China improve ... [Beijing is] a privileged partner
and a responsible one."
France and Germany are
pushing for an end to the embargo largely for economic
reasons. The EU is China's third largest trade partner
and, according to an October strategy paper, China
expects the EU to become its largest source of foreign
investment within five years. China's military spending
has been growing by an annual rate of 17 percent even
though the state has not recently been involved in any
major conflicts.
Germany's and France's
economies have suffered since the late 1990s and may be
subject to EU action for government deficit spending
above the maximum levels allowed as members in the
union. The expansion of the EU from 15 states to 25 in
March will weaken the French and German negotiating
positions within the trading bloc. Both countries are
hoping that investment in China will help to pull their
economies out of stagnation and near flat growth rates.
China has used this situation to make ending the embargo
its top priority with the EU.
The US objects to
dropping the arms embargo because, Washington argues, it
would threaten to upset the balance of power in the
region and because China has not advanced sufficiently
on the human rights issues that triggered the embargoes.
Arms sales to China could threaten
Taiwan
The lifting of the sanctions would
certainly exacerbate the tensions surrounding the March
20 presidential elections in Taiwan. China has always
said it will use military force, if necessary, to
reunify the island. Currently, Taiwan has been protected
by US guarantees of security, US arms purchases and the
island's technological and military edge over the
mainland. Should weapons sales resume between the EU and
China, including Mirage jet fighters from France and
missiles from Germany, this technological superiority
could diminish without the US authorizing new and
advanced weapons for sale to the island. The possibility
of this situation is beginning to stoke the
nationalistic streak in Taiwan that even the US has not
been able to support.
The economic and
geopolitical rise of China also threatens the ability of
the US to act as a unique balancing power in the region.
As China emerges as a great power and Japan's slack
economy continues to marginalize Tokyo's regional
influence, the Asian and North Asian power structures
that the US has relied on are being overturned. Although
the bilateral security alliance and access to Japanese
naval bases will remain important to the US for the
foreseeable future, Washington has been trying to
maintain its influence in the region through other state
players.
Although some individuals in Washington
have begun to see China as a security collaborator,
rather than a "strategic competitor" - the term now in
vogue - the US is not prepared to strengthen the Chinese
government's military power, partly out of concern for
other regional allies such as Taiwan and South Korea.
France and Germany are not as hesitant as the US
to disrupt the balance of power in the region because
the European powers have not maintained strong ties with
Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.
The US also
objects to lifting the embargo because the ban was put
in place initially because of human rights abuses, and
Washington argues that the prohibitions should not be
lifted simply in reaction to the liberalization of the
Chinese economy. China continues to occupy Tibet,
suppress dissent and free speech and control the media,
however, EU members say China has made progress on these
fronts and should not be lumped into the same category
as North Korea, Myanmar, Liberia and Sudan.
Code of conduct on arms exports would
remain
Even if the EU does lift the embargo,
which looks increasingly likely, it appears that any
weapons sales to China would still be illegal under the
1998 code of conduct on arms exports. Since China
continues to target nearly 500 missiles at Taiwan, there
is little chance that any long-range missile technology
could be sold to Beijing, even short-range technology to
cover the Taiwan Strait. Some in the EU who favor easing
or lifting the embargo say that the code of conduct
would prevent the sale of any technology that could be
used to threaten another state. Still, lifting the
embargo would be a step in the direction of eventual
arms sales, as conditions permit.
The
motivations for France and Germany are strongly tied to
their countries' economic weaknesses. But their efforts
to cancel the embargo may also be one route toward
creation of a multi-polar world to counter balance the
power of the US. Their desire to redress what they see
as a geo-strategic imbalance may explain why they want
the EU to vote on lifting the embargo before the March
inauguration of 10 new members, many of which have close
ties to Washington.
If the EU pursues the path
of boosting China to a position to challenge the power
in the region that the US currently controls, the
effects of this realignment could spread around the
world. Any move by the EU to arm China will have to
account for the reaction that this power shift could
unleash.
Published with permission of the
Power
and Interest News Report, an
analysis-based publication that seeks to provide insight
into various conflicts, regions and points of interest
around the globe. All comments should be directed to
content@pinr.com
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