Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is
in a tight race for re-election on March 20. In part to
energize his supporters, he has proposed two referendums
that day in order, he says, to deepen Taiwan's democracy
and protect its "national sovereignty". Beijing,
meanwhile, sees the referendums as the first step in a
calculated, three-year timetable for establishing
Taiwan's juridical independence, which, China states,
would trigger the use of force to unite the breakaway
island and the mainland. Given US involvement in
Taiwan's security, this raises the prospect of a
Sino-American war - potentially even nuclear war.
Chen claims that his goal, like that of George W
Bush, is to preserve the "status quo" and that the US
president supports him. At the very least, this is
misleading.
For more than 30 years, as it has
worked to advance relations with Beijing for reasons of
fundamental national interest while protecting Taiwan
against forced reunification, the United States has
assiduously stayed out of the controversy over Taiwan's
sovereignty, focusing on maintenance of peace and
stability in the Taiwan Strait. To do this, every US
president since Richard Nixon has "acknowledged" the
People's Republic of China's claim that Taiwan is part
of "one China" and, while not embracing that assertion,
has agreed not to support outcomes that conflict with
it, such as "one China, one Taiwan" or "two Chinas".
Though less than optimal for the US, the PRC, or
Taiwan, that stance has allowed all three to advance
their interests without having to confront the
contradictions - and the risks of armed conflict -
inherent in the competing claims. And within this
framework, Taiwan has developed from a poor,
authoritarian society into a prosperous democracy.
Now, while Chen may avoid "declaring"
independence, he seeks to "consolidate" what he calls
Taiwan's existing "sovereign, independent" status. This
contrasts sharply with the US view that preserving the
"status quo" means not only ensuring that Beijing does
not use force to achieve reunification but also that
Taipei does not provoke war through unilateral
challenges regarding Taiwan's sovereign status.
Polls have consistently reflected the pragmatism
of Taiwan's people in supporting the "status quo",
rather than directly challenging Beijing over
"independence" in ways that could threaten the very
basis of Taiwan's free and flourishing existence.
However, Chen is currently appealing to the gut
political aspirations of most people on the island,
urging them to vote with their hearts, not their heads,
assuming somehow - presumably including through the
threat of US military intervention - that the worst will
not happen. This is an unacceptable gamble with their
future and that of the United States.
US sees
referendum as unhelpful, provocative After a
shaky start, the Bush administration has, overall,
steered an admirably balanced course through the
dangerous political shoals of the Taiwan Strait. The US
has strongly backed democracy in Taiwan, including
referendums on strictly local matters. But the current
proposals by their very nature - regardless of their
wording - ultimately imply questions of war and peace,
and while Washington is concerned about the PRC missile
buildup opposite Taiwan, it has sought to discourage the
referendum not only as ineffectual for dealing with
those missiles but also as unnecessarily provocative.
President Bush tried quiet diplomacy, but Chen
Shui-bian ignored even his personal appeals.
Consequently, in a highly unusual move, Bush publicly
criticized the Taiwan leader in mid-December. However,
rather than taking stock of how seriously he was
mismanaging relations with Taipei's main supporter, Chen
sought instead to quell US criticism with textual
changes in the referendums, using them ostensibly to
promote measures - increased defense spending and
cross-Strait dialogue - favored in Washington.
But the US saw the proposed votes as unnecessary
for making decisions on those issues and, after again
unsuccessfully trying a low-key approach, eventually
began to question publicly what constructive purpose
these referendums served. Still Chen claimed - and
claims - that the US appreciates his efforts and
supports the referendums.
It is important to
respect Taiwan's democracy and the people's right to
vote on any issue. And Washington should maintain
scrupulous neutrality in Taiwan's presidential election.
But in light of the risks the current trend creates for
US national-security interests, it is time to be more
direct and make US views clear, minimizing any chance of
miscalculation or later recriminations about the
consequences of current steps for future US-Taiwan
relations and cross-Strait stability.
Although
the United States still hopes to avoid commenting on the
substance of cross-Strait sovereignty issues, Chen's
continuing efforts may eventually force Washington
openly to reject his definition of the "status quo". For
now, at a minimum, the US should state unambiguously
that these referendums are unhelpful and potentially
dangerous. The US owes its friends in Taiwan - and
itself - no less candor than that.
Alan D
Romberg is senior associate at the Henry L Stimson
Center, a non-partisan think-tank in Washington, DC. He
is author of Rein In at the Brink of the Precipice:
American Policy Toward Taiwan and US-PRC Relations.
He can be reached ataromberg@earthlink.net.
This article is used by permission of Pacific Forum CSIS.
