New
thinking on a Greater Chinese Union
By David Isenberg
When it comes to the delicate and troubled state of China-Taiwan relations, the
strained status quo - espoused adamantly but perhaps not wisely by the United
States - just isn't good enough, especially in light of Beijing's repeated
comments, notably last November, that "the use of force may become
unavoidable".
As Taiwan's March 20 presidential election nears - and a simultaneous
"defensive" referendum on the deployment of nearly 500 Chinese missiles aimed
at the island - the current impasse makes it evident that each side's
preference for resolving the standoff is impossible to achieve. Taiwan wants
widely recognized de jure, if not de facto, independence for
Taiwan; China wants reunification with its "renegade province" on the "one
country, two systems" model used in Hong Kong.
Thus, what is required is new thinking, and an innovative approach to some kind
of reintegration that incorporates the interests of both sides - far easier
said than done, but imperative nonetheless. The International Crisis Group
(ICG), an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, has provided a
recent analysis of the problem and its possible options, recommending
consideration of a "Greater Chinese Union".
A refinement of the "one country, two systems" approach used in Hong Kong;
An asymmetric "federally" linking an autonomous entity to a larger state,
offering Taiwan a stronger separate identity and more actual autonomy, as well
as demilitarization and international security guarantees;
A confederation yoking China and Taiwan as sovereign equals in a state that
retains full reunification as its ultimate goal;
The idea of a "Greater Chinese Union", somewhere between a confederation and
the thinnest possible federation for which no existing terminology is suitable;
both sides would recognize a larger common identity, but Beijing would allow
Taiwan not only to maintain its political system and way of life but also to
have considerable international space, including membership in many
international organizations.
'Greater Chinese Union' has benefits for China and Taiwan
"Some variation on the theme of a 'Greater Chinese Union' seems the most
attractive option," according to ICG's report. "Its loose and flexible form
would allow Taiwan to keep its distinct political, economic and social identity
and satisfy much of its desire to be treated with more respect
internationally," it said, "while allowing China to plausibly claim that
reunification is a reality."
Some independent experts agree that this is the most feasible option.
"If it ever comes about, it is likely to takes that form. The Hong Kong model
is not acceptable. This is at least one step removed, which makes it more
acceptable to the Taiwanese," said Ted Carpenter, vice president for defense
and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, in
Washington, DC.
But Harvey Feldman, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, called the
ICG report "irrelevant", saying that "unless and until a non-communist
government comes to power in China, the chances for reunification were between
nil and zero."
Of course, the option of a Greater Chinese Union is more easily proposed than
realized but still merits consideration in the long run, according to some
analysts. Many details large and small, substantial and procedural, would have
to be negotiated. Just choosing a name for the new political entity would be an
emotionally charged process.
The International Crisis Group report says the term "federation" has become
unacceptable to Taiwan, as it implies a unitary state with only one central
government, giving other regional or provincial or even autonomous governments
a lower status. Meanwhile, the term "confederation" has been rejected by China
because it implies equal sovereign states. Similarly, Beijing objects to
"union" and "commonwealth", as "union" is associated with the European Union
comprising sovereign states, and "commonwealth" implies too lose a degree of
unity and is reminiscent of colonialism.
Greater Chinese Union evolved 2,000 years ago
Still, as the ICG report notes, there is historical precedent for a Greater
Chinese Union. With the advantage of hindsight, it is evident that former
leader Deng Xiaoping's "one country, two systems" formula was based upon
China's traditional dual approach to government. This first evolved 2,000 years
ago under the Han Dynasty, and the Manchus further developed it in order to
rule the expanded Chinese empire. Where circumstances, such as long distances
or underlying cultural differences, did not permit the direct administration of
an area, imperial governance was implemented directly. Ritual forms, via social
institutions and the importance of ceremony, became the glue that held the
Chinese together over the millennia.
Similar behavior would be required to implement a similar political situation
in the Taiwan Strait. It would require the same sort of elastic interpretation
of "what it means to be Chinese", in which ritual and appearance are more
important than actual content.
Thus, any settlement along these lines would require Taiwan to acknowledge that
it belongs to the Chinese nation at large and that its future is linked in some
fashion to that of the Chinese mainland.
Of course, for this to happen certain prerequisites would have to be achieved,
including:
Emergence of forward-looking Chinese leadership, a development likely to
involve future generations;
Evolution of political systems, especially substantial political liberalization
in China;
Continuing economic integration between China and Taiwan;
Emergence, or re-emergence of a stronger set of common identities, especially
in Taiwan;
Maintenance of a steady course by the international community, especially the
US. Washington would need to both encourage further political liberalization in
China and refrain from de jure recognition of Taiwan while at the same
time opening further international space for it.
Many young Taiwanese don't identify with China
One obstacle, according to Carpenter, the Cato Institute's foreign policy and
defense expert, is the trend in public opinion within Taiwan itself, especially
among the island's youth. "The young in Taiwan identify themselves as citizens
of China about as much as Chinese-Americans do," he said.
Some of these goals on the way to a Greater Chinese Union would be easier to
attain than others. Economic relations between China and Taiwan, for example,
have never been stronger. Taiwanese companies continue to invest in China at
record rates, and Taiwanese investment is critical to job creation and local
tax revenues in China.
But insofar as China's leadership is concerned, it is unlikely that President
Hu Jintao in the near future will have the interest or the clout to put forward
any initiative that would differ from former president Jiang Zemin's "Eight
Points Proposal" or the "one country, two systems" proposal of Deng Xiaoping.
This, despite the fact that there is no support in Taiwan for the latter
system.
Furthermore, from a Chinese perspective, the administration of US President
George W Bush has not been helpful - to put it politely. In China's view, the
US under Bush has done more than any recent US government to help bring Taiwan
out of its international isolation, earning kudos in Taipei, but not in
Beijing.
Washington has allowed Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian to make highly visible
visits to US cities, such as his trip to New York last October. The US upgraded
the de facto Washington embassy in Taipei, and actively encouraged the
Taiwanese military to modernize - all actions that were unthinkable only a few
years ago under the administration of president Bill Clinton. These US moves
are all seen in Beijing as a sign that the US is abandoning its commitment to
the "One China" principle, upon which Sino-US relations were re-established and
have been based.
Still, the situation may be better than many assume. "The situation is probably
less tense than last November, when China issued a use-of-force warning," said
Carpenter. "The Chinese have discovered that saber-rattling tactics don't work.
It's the quickest way to ensure Chen Shui-bian's election."
Similarly, former UN ambassador Feldman asked: "Is there anyone in the
international community who seriously believes that Taiwan holding a referendum
on March 20 asking whether it should increase military spending is a casus belli
for Chinese military action? I don't think so."
David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the Washington-based British
American Security Information Council (BASIC), has a wide background in arms
control and national security issues. The views expressed are his own.
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