SPEAKING
FREELY 'Peaceful rising' seeks to allay 'China
threat' By Bruce Klingner
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their say.
Pleaseclick hereif you are
interested in contributing.
Beijing has
adopted a new diplomatic approach as a way of gaining
regional acceptance for its expanding sphere of
influence and to counter foreign, primarily US, warnings
of the "China threat". Chinese media have articulated a
policy of heping jueqi ("peaceful rise" or
"peaceful ascendancy") that is linked to the leadership
of President Hu Jintao.
By expounding on its
peaceful intentions to explain last year's flurry of
diplomatic and economic initiatives, Beijing seeks to
allay Asian worries over the Chinese dragon's
lengthening shadow. In addition, by highlighting how
China's growing economic strength will benefit the less
developed countries of Southeast Asia and Central Asia,
Beijing is working to gain their active engagement in
China's economic plan.
As Premier Wen Jiabao
told the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
leaders during their October summit last October, "A
developed and stronger China will bring about
development opportunities and tangible benefits to every
Asian country. It is a great contribution to the peace
and development of Asia."
Finally, by
contrasting the differences between Chinese and US
policies, the Chinese leadership is attempting to
undermine Washington's relationships with Asian nations
and to supplant the United States as the predominant
power in Asia.
Foreign policy reinforces
domestic stability The Chinese leadership defines
its primary national interests as retaining Communist
Party control and achieving international acceptance of
China as the Asian superpower with hegemony over the
region. To retain a "mandate from heaven" legitimacy as
the ruling power and to reduce the risks stemming from
domestic civil unrest, the party sees the need
continually to improve the economic condition of the
country and, more important, of the populace.
Economic growth must be sufficient to absorb the
millions of new workers entering the workforce annually,
incorporate the unemployed workforce already displaced
by closures of inefficient state-owned enterprises, and
attain what has become a mantra of 8 percent annual
economic growth.
One of the most effective means
to achieve these ends is to increase and formalize
economic engagement with Asian nations. China's
declining ability to meet its agricultural and energy
needs through its own domestic supplies adds a sense of
urgency to the strategy. A prerequisite condition to
achieving these goals, however, is to maintain regional
peace as well as to dampen regional fears over the
potential consequences of China's growing power.
Defining heping jueqi - peaceful
rise Ruan Zongzee, deputy director of the
Beijing-based China Institute for International Studies,
articulated the heping jueqi policy in an article
titled "2003 Foreign Policy: Peaceful Rising". Ruan
credits the "new leaders" of China with implementing a
regional foreign policy that reflects a "new way of
thinking" that is broader, more flexible, and more
pragmatic. He touts the frequent foreign visits by the
leadership during the past year as having "elevated
Sino-regional relations to a new height".
China's strong involvement and its surpassing of
Japan for Asian market share are highlighted as key
indicators of Beijing's critical role in East Asia
having achieved greater economic cooperation.
'Peaceful rising' trumps 'China
threat' Ruan identifies the key foreign-policy
question China faces as "whether she can make the world
accept her, but before this is whether she can make the
regional nations accept her". Assuring Asian nations of
China's peaceful intentions represents the key goal of
the peaceful-rising policy. The policy advocates
"rising" as the goal, "peace" as the condition, and it
emphasizes the importance of "being on friendly terms
with your neighbor".
Yoichi Funabashi,
foreign-affairs columnist for the Asahi Shimbun,
encapsulated the situation that Beijing faces: "In
international politics, how a country rises often has
more drastic consequences for the world than the rise
itself." He highlighted that the "speed, velocity,
ideology and, most significantly, the impact it has on
the international balance of power" can result in
neighboring countries reacting with suspicion, caution,
or even fear.
Funabashi reported that a
researcher from a Chinese government-affiliated
think-tank explained heping jueqi by commenting,
"China aims to grow and advance without upsetting
existing orders. We are trying to rise in a way that
benefits our neighbors." In this manner, the academic
continued, China is continuing to follow the late leader
Deng Xiaoping's advice to successor Jiang Zemin to
"never act haughtily".
The degree to which this
reflects a long-term strategy for Beijing is indicated
by a member of the Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference who stated that the government
is studying "How did historic empires and major powers
rise and what reactions did they trigger? What should we
do so as not to cause excessive wariness?" Such comments
mirror US media reports that Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld commissioned academic researchers to prepare
studies of the causes for the downfall of historical
empires in order for Washington to counter foreign
perceptions of a US empire.
The heping
jueqi policy is also intended to rebut the
China-threat theory, which seeks to "vilify China's
image and stop her rise". Beijing strives to gain
additional support by contrasting its intentions with
those of the United States. Ruan comments that the Iraq
war "demonstrates the US will rely on its economic and
military might, pursue unilateralism, realize the 'seek
to gain the initiative' military strategy, strive its
hardest to achieve hegemony". The contradiction between
the US "unipolar" policy and China's "multipolar" policy
will reinforce Asian nations' perceptions of the
benefits of allying themselves with Beijing over
Washington.
Radial foreign policy The
"peaceful rising" concept serves as a recently defined
veneer laid atop a more subtle and sophisticated
strategy to expand China's influence by engaging in a
series of diplomatic and economic initiatives directed
radially outward from Beijing toward Central Asia, South
Asia, Southeast Asia, Japan and the Koreas. In Northwest
Asia, China has reinvigorated the Shanghai Cooperative
Organization to provide Beijing with greater influence
over a region that has been of growing concern because
of the introduction of US military forces as part of the
global "war on terrorism".
In South Asia, China
has engaged in active diplomatic efforts to strengthen
its economic, military, and political ties with both
longtime ally Pakistan and previous rival India. In
Southeast Asia, the leadership sees enacting bilateral
and multilateral trade agreements as laying the
groundwork for establishing a regional trade bloc that
would:
Establish China as the predominant economic force in
Asia.
Parlay economic cooperation into political influence
over Southeast Asian nations.
Provide a counterbalance to offset and eventually
diminish US influence. China signed a series of
agreements with ASEAN in 2002 and, last year, became the
first non-ASEAN country to sign the association's Treaty
of Amity and Cooperation.
Finally, in Northeast
Asia, China has parlayed its more activist policy as
mediator of the North Korean nuclear crisis to gain
acknowledgement from Washington, Seoul and Tokyo that it
is the predominant power in the region, at the expense
of Washington's role and influence.
Beijing's
message more palatable than Washington's China's
intention to increase economic relationships has been
well received in Southeast Asia since it is seen as part
of a "comprehensive security" strategy that intertwines
economic benefits, diplomacy, and national security to
provide a partnership for the developing nations. As a
result, Beijing has garnered greater support in regional
capitals than what is perceived as Washington's
single-minded focus on terrorism, which comes at the
expense of a broader relationship, including issues of
importance to Southeast Asian nations.
China's
neighbors are not oblivious to Beijing's intentions, but
they may see the ongoing dynamic as a way to achieve
their own goals or, at least, to make the best
accommodation possible with what is perceived as an
inevitable outcome. As Malaysia's then-prime minister
Mahathir Mohamad summarized, "The US is trying to make a
comeback to interact with Southeast Asia. [The ASEAN
nations] will benefit from this Chinese-US competition."
Implications of China's grand
strategy China's energetic foreign policy
utilizes increasing involvement in multilateral economic
and security organizations to challenge the United
States and achieve a predominant role in Asia. Beijing
appears to have substituted a political-economic
strategy for its previous emphasis on political-military
issues to shape more actively and effectively the
political landscape in Asia.
China's continued
phenomenal economic growth has caused a tectonic shift
so that smaller nations feel themselves increasingly
drawn into the Chinese vortex. Even larger nations see
benefits to tethering themselves to what is increasingly
viewed as the engine of economic growth in Asia, as
China has supplanted Japan as the region's most
influential nation. A particularly significant
indication of the shift in Asia was China's overtaking
the US last year as South Korea's and Japan's largest
export market. The passing of the economic torch was
both the result of and precursor to a commensurate
increase in Chinese political influence.
Bruce Klingner is director of analysis
for Intellibridge Corp in Washington, DC. Intellibridge
provides customized open-source intelligence analysis
for government, corporate and sovereign clients. His
areas of expertise are strategic national security,
political and military affairs in China, Northeast Asia,
Korea and Japan.
(Copyright 2004 Bruce
Klingner.)
Speaking Freely is an
Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please click here if you are
interested in contributing.
