Taiwan
Strait: All quiet on the Kinmen front
By Macabe Keliher
KINMEN - Given the pro-Taiwanese identity that has overtaken this island, one
would expect to find China-Taiwan relations as tense as they have ever been.
Given that Taiwan's presidential election this Saturday lacks a ticket
committed to unification with China and that voters and political parties have
embraced a shift toward independence, each side ought to be as defensive as a
taxi driver in Taipei rush hour. Perhaps even more so than in 2000 when Chen
Shui-bian was elected on a pro-independence ticket. Perhaps even more so than
1995 and again in 1996 when China lobbed missiles into Taiwan's shipping lanes.
And yet all is calm. "We have never been more relaxed," says Fu Kin-jung,
captain of the Republic of China (ROC) Coast Guard. He is not supposed to say
too much, but the group of foreign journalists he has taken out for a tour of
the front lines has him in a full court press. Are you on heightened alert? Do
you expect exercises in the run-up to the presidential election? Are you
preparing for confrontation with the PLA (People's Liberation Army)?
No comment. No comment. No comment.
Well, how do you feel about China-Taiwan relations? Fu's official demeanor
betrays a slight grin at the question, his DayGlo-orange jumpsuit enriching the
changing color of his face. He says the coast guard's days are filled chasing
off Chinese fishing boats in ROC territorial waters, not preparing for a
showdown with the PLA. "We often exchange greetings with the PLA when we see
them," he says.
At their closest point, Kinmen, also known as Quemoy - governed by Taiwan - and
Fujian province in China lie only a few kilometers apart. From the underground
scout bunker dating from the 1940s, now littered with trinket and drink stands,
visitors can peer through binoculars to see Chinese houses with their day's
wash hung up to dry on the opposite shore. Both the ROC and People's Republic
of China (PRC) coast guards patrol here, at a line in the water, visible only
on the ship's global positioning system, where Taiwan's territory ends and
China's begins.
Kinmen troops reduced from 50,000 to 10,000
The Kuomintang's (KMT's) last stand at Kinmen in the 1950s was a successful
defense of the frontline island that would continue to link the ROC government
to mainland China. And yet, despite the proximity, Taiwan's military here has
been greatly reduced. From some 50,000 troops in the early 1990s, about 10,000
soldiers are now stationed here. The pleasure houses for the troops have
disappeared, and the underground harbors, carved out of a cliff and big enough
to hold 40 ships, have now been put on the Kinmen tourist route, complete with
a cafe at the entrance where a decent latte can be had for US$2.
Such calm belies the political dynamics of China-Taiwan relations today, in
which each side has backed itself into its own corner of a very small room.
Taiwanese voters have embraced Taiwanese identity and silenced any credible
debate about unification, pushing all political parties into the position of de
facto support for Taiwan independence. China, meanwhile, has everything to lose
by letting Taiwan drift further away from the ultimate goal of
unification-independence movements in other parts of the country: tests of the
party's legitimacy, even a military coup could ensue should Taiwan be allowed
to declare itself independent (see
The political tinderbox of the Taiwan Strait, March 12).
The Chinese did hold large-scale joint naval exercises this week with France,
to be sure, and the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier has steamed through the
Taiwan Strait. Official statements from Beijing and Washington say neither of
these events has anything to do with Taiwan's election and referendum this
Saturday, when voters will be asked to elect a president. They also will be
asked whether China should be requested to retarget its missiles aimed at
Taiwan and if Beijing refuses whether Taiwan should seek advanced military
defensive technology.
Taipei, however, has been up in arms, accusing Beijing of trying to threaten
voters, and accusing France of turning its back on democracy and kowtowing to
dictatorship.
Where the twain shall meet
The last islet in ROC territorial waters is Dadan. In the months after he was
elected president of Taiwan in 2000, Chen Shui-bian invited China's
then-president Jiang Zemin for tea on Dadan. Not surprisingly, there was no
reply from the Chinese side. Perhaps Jiang thought the big red characters -
"Three People's Principles to Unify China" - chiseled into stone during Chiang
Kai-shek's day too contradictory.
Or maybe not. Today our coast-guard tour intercepts a Chinese tour boat that
has come out to view the characters. One of three daily tours, it is a
double-level Ming-style junk with a diesel engine and a railing full of
screaming Chinese tourists. The coast-guard skiff runs a few circles around it,
and they wave and we wave back. They come up to the invisible line in the
water, maybe just past it, and turn around, the tourists having received an
extra bonus of seeing their Taiwan compatriots.
Not that a meeting of the sides is that uncommon these days. When official
links between Kinmen and Xiamen - "small three links" - opened in 2001, the
exchanges of people exploded in numbers. That year 21,000 people made the trip
each way. The next year the number more than doubled to 53,000. Last year,
160,000 people traveled on one of 12 ferries a day. Kinmen magistrate Li
Juh-feng says he expects more than 300,000 people will go back and forth this
year. He says he wants the Taipei central government to work on establishing
full transportation, communication and shipping links - also known as the
"three links" - between China and Taiwan, where all citizens have the freedom
of travel, and where Kinmen will be the transfer station, "like Hong Kong".
Most of the people making the trip nowadays are Taiwanese, it is true, because
Taiwanese regulations do not allow individual PRC citizens to travel to Taiwan.
Still, figures from Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council show that close to 3,000
PRC officials or scholars made the trip last year, almost double the number
that traveled the year before.
Indeed, this is not World War I Europe. If political tensions remain high - if
not at some of their most dangerous levels ever - then the preparations for
conflict are at their lowest. Yes, the PLA openly threatens to sacrifice
everything and anything to unify Taiwan. Yes, Taiwan says it will declare
formal independence under such circumstances and will defend itself. But the
troops have certainly not embarked on an irreversible trip to the border. No,
they are snug at home, watching the stock markets.
Or biding their mandatory military time on Kinmen."Where are you from?" cries a
baby face in fatigues among other baby faces in fatigues hoping to practice
their English. "Are you afraid to fight?" is the only thing I can think of
asking. "No, of course not." And what if China attacks? "They won't attack.
There is nothing to be afraid of... Are there any pretty girls with you
today?" Oh yes, lots.
Macabe Keliher is an independent historian and journalist, and a regular
contributor to Asia Times Online. His website is
www.macabe.net.
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