Pan-blues: screaming the blues, set for a
shakeup By Mac William
Bishop
TAIPEI - The furor surrounding Taiwan's
presidential election is a symptom of the dysfunction of
the opposition, the political alliance and uneasy
marriage of convenience known as the pan-blues. Its days
may now be numbered, and in any case, a shakeup is
likely and long overdue.
Since election results
were released, defeated presidential candidate Lien
Chan, chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), and his running
mate, People First Party (PFP) chairman James Soong have
been fighting for their political lives and every hungry
would-be successor knows it. Meanwhile, some pan-blues
hope the leadership will concede the election, opening
the way for new blood and new ideas.
Accepting
defeat, however, appears to be the last thing they will
do. In a sign of just how dysfunctional the
opposition is, Lien overrode his own party negotiators
on Wednesday to kill a potential legislative accord with
the governing pan-green alliance that would have allowed
a ballot recount in the disputed presidential election
as early as next week. The proposed accord would have
permitted a recount - the law has no recount provision
at this time - when the margin of victory is less than 1
percent - in this case it was a mere 0.23 percent. But
no. Lien wants an emergency decree and an immediate
recount. Lien was narrowly defeated in his bid for
president by incumbent President Chen Shui-bian of the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who supports a
recount that knowingly is unlikely to change the
outcome.
The crisis entered its fifth day on
Thursday as thousands of pan-blue supporters protested
the election and, like Lien, demanded an immediate
recount. Efforts to find a solution apparently were
deadlocked.
Unless Lien and James Soong win
legal redress of what they call an invalid or stolen
election - and then win a subsequent election - their
careers are effectively over. The election results -
their loss by only 30,000 votes - and prospects of
political doom hang above them like swords of Damocles,
and neither man intends to retire quietly into political
obscurity.
Pan-blues snatched defeat from
jaws of victory The two chairmen reacted to their
loss as they did - with outrage and calls for street
protests - because until a few weeks ago it was common
knowledge that they could not fail to defeat President
Chen. The incumbent, however, got a boost from an
assassination attempt on the eve of the election on
Saturday - and because of inept campaigning by the
opposition.
Now an up-and-coming generation of
pan-blue politicians and rising stars is poised to take
advantage of missteps by the leadership. The Lien-Soong
ticket failed to paper over its differences and deliver
ideas that would capture the popular imagination: in
effect, the campaign was bungled.
For some
members of the pan-blue alliance, however, the prospects
of defeat and discredited leadership present openings
for their own political careers. Certain key figures
wish to take on the old guard, represented by Lien and
Soong, and transform the pan-blues into a very different
political party.
One of these politicians is
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou. Ma is one of the most popular
and highly regarded politicians within the pan-blue
camp. Although some critics write him off as a KMT
lackey, who also happens to be a capable administrator,
Ma has a base of support on which he could build a
powerful KMT faction should the current heavyweights be
forced to step aside.
The Harvard-educated Ma
made a name for himself as an aggressive justice
minister in the late 1990s, taking on the mafia and
rampant government corruption. Another skill Ma has
displayed is an uncanny ability to avoid controversy.
These factors, coupled with his charisma and popularity
among female voters, make him a definite choice for
higher office in the future.
Another
high-profile politician biding his time is Legislative
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng. Wang was in charge of the
pan-blues' election campaign, and more than a few cynics
thought this explained why their strategy seemed almost
designed to ensure failure, insinuating it was part of
Wang's plan to open the door to higher office for
himself. This, however, seems far-fetched, and it is
likely that Wang would have been, and may yet be, the
KMT's choice for the powerful office of premier.
Tangled tales of KMT splits,
intrigues Chen and his governing DPP swept into
power in 2000 in a long-shot bid because of a split
within the KMT. Soong, one of the most popular rising
stars in the KMT, broke with his party after it
nominated Lien as its presidential candidate in late
1999. He decided to run on an independent ticket, with
the result that the traditional support for the KMT was
divided between KMT loyalists and the Soong faction.
Lien earned 23 percent of the vote, while Soong earned
37 percent. Chen and the DPP, reportedly as surprised to
learn of their victory as the KMT, won the election with
just 39 percent of the vote.
KMT supporters were
furious. In protest, they rallied outside of KMT
headquarters, demanding that then-president and KMT
chairman Lee Teng-hui resign. The fallout from that
earlier electoral debacle had just begun.
When
it ended, Soong had formed a new political party, the
PFP, Lien was in control of a weakened and rudderless
KMT, and the DPP was just beginning to take the first
tentative steps toward running a country.
Three
and a half years later the KMT had joined with the PFP
to form the pan-blue alliance (named after the color of
the KMT emblem) and was considering a joint presidential
ticket in order to avoid the divide that cost the KMT
power in 2000. Then, after numerous meetings and
emergency legislation to allow a joint-party ticket,
Lien and Soong announced they were running against Chen
and Vice President Annette Lu.
The pan-blues
were overjoyed. They were certain that with this paring
they could duplicate, and even improve on their showing
in the 2000 election. Had they been right, they would
have defeated the DPP on Saturday. The alliance between
Lien and Soong, however, was more a marriage of
convenience than of love. Lien Chan and the KMT had the
money and influence to back a presidential bid, while
James Soong had the charisma and popular support to make
it viable.
Lien, Soong differ on approaching
China The two chairman agreed on little but their
desire to gain power, and they differed, among other
things, on how to approach China and when approached,
how close to draw.
The People First Party is
often characterized as the most pro-China party in
Taiwanese politics, and its members are primarily
"mainlanders" - ethnic Chinese who fled to Taiwan after
the defeat of the KMT by Mao Zedong's communists - or
their descendants. James Soong espouses a "one China
under one roof" approach to cross-Strait relations,
which is often interpreted as allowing a large amount of
flexibility in interpreting Taiwan's international
status in negotiations with China.
The KMT long
ago accepted the idea that it was by right the de facto
ruler of Taiwan. Under the rule of Chiang Ching-Kuo,
Chiang Kai-shek's son, it began a program of
"localization" , in which it attempted to co-opt the
Taiwanese elite into its administration. The result of
these efforts was a desire to maintain the myth of the
"Republic of China", while actively seeking to prevent
any changes in the nature of Taiwan's sovereignty.
Lien Chan, therefore, promotes the "One China"
policy that is widely recognized as the rubric for
defining Taiwan's current status. Lien embraces closer
economic ties to China, while stating that the
"political" issues in cross-Strait relations should be
left to future generations.
Another problem for
the pan-blues was how they would divvy up power if they
won in 2004. Some analysts believed Soong would seek the
premiership, an important post from which he could
nominate the cabinet's ministers. Whether the law allows
one man to concurrently hold the posts of vice president
and premier is an issue that has not yet been resolved,
and the KMT would be sure to put up a fight if it
decided the PFP was monopolizing the cabinet posts.
Lien aloof, Soong charismatic This
debate was part of the larger personality conflict
between the two pan-blue chairmen. Lien, reserved and
aloof, is a sharp contrast with the charismatic and
savvy Soong. As Soong finished ahead of Lien in the 2000
election, he seemed unlikely to embrace the role of
second-fiddle to Lien in the largely ceremonial post of
vice president.
In the six months prior to this
election, the Lien-Soong ticket squandered a 10-point
lead in the opinion polls. Much of this was due to the
influence of former president Lee, who in 2001 came out
in support of the DPP and has, ever since, been
something of a spiritual leader to the governing
pan-greens (named after the color of the DPP emblem).
Lee, the first native Taiwanese to hold power in the
history of modern Taiwan, wields considerable influence
among the electorate. Without his support and his almost
messianic proselytizing on behalf of a "Taiwanese
identity" - aggressively promoted by Chen - it is
unlikely the DPP would have had such a strong showing on
Saturday.
Another factor in the pan-blues' poor
performance was their inability to control the terms of
the debate. This occurred largely because Lien and Soong
were unable to paper over the ideological and
personality conflicts between the various factions
within their two parties.
As a result, the
pan-blues were forced to campaign on platitudes and were
unable to propose any dramatic policies to capture the
imagination of the vital 20 percent of the electorate
that was undecided a week before polling. (In Taiwan, it
is illegal to publish any election-related poll
information 10 days before the election, and only now is
it known that 20 percent were undecided).
The
pan-blues were left in the unenviable position of having
to respond to the DPP's initiative, of which the
referendum law was a perfect example. Although it failed
to achieve a quorum and pass, from the start the
referendum was a DPP issue, and the ruling party was
successful in controlling the terms of the debate.
Although it cannot be written off as a mere diversionary
tactic, the referendum helped the DPP mobilize its base
of support, which may have proved critical in achieving
victory on Saturday.
Defeat, and its
acceptance, could mean reform If the defeated
pan-blues really go down in defeat, despite all their
protests, the alliance, including its KMT and PFP
components, could jointly or separately undertake
restructuring, entertain new ideas and be energized by
new leadership.
Although there is a younger
generation of politicians waiting to take the reins of
leadership, the most unpredictable result - if Lien and
Soong concede the race - will be the fallout within the
KMT. Some analysts say the KMT will be divided into
"localization" and "traditional" factions, with native
Taiwanese officials and lawmakers following in the
footsteps of Lee Teng-hui and casting aside the
pro-China policies of the old KMT. These lawmakers could
then decide either to join with the pan-greens, or, as
is more likely, become a moderate version of the current
KMT. If a split occurred, three possibilities would
arise:
The "traditional" faction of the KMT would be likely
to join with the PFP, thus creating a kind of
neo-pan-blue camp, which would embrace a pro-China,
pro-unification platform and would be largely composed
of the descendents of the mainland Chinese.
The KMT and PFP would close ranks and consolidate
into a more unified and coherent entity. This party
would look very much as the KMT does now, but it would
have to shed some of its more radical pro-China policies
for the sake of political unity. Such a party would act
less like the current pan-blues and more like a
traditional opposition party. Then it would become a
formidable opponent in the legislative elections later
this year.
A unified and restructured pan-blue
alliance, however, could only come into being through
the leadership of a very talented core of new
politicians. The KMT possesses such politicians, but
whether or not they can be convinced to cooperate is not
known.
The final possibility for the pan-blue alliance is
that it would disintegrate and be forced to reconstitute
itself into a new group of political parties altogether.
This seems unlikely, given that the base of pan-blue
support is large and active and the small margin of
victory for the governing pan-greens and the ensuing
chaos mean that the pan-blues have a cause with which to
motivate their supporters.
Pan-blue lawmakers
testing the political winds Meanwhile, the KMT's
Central Policy Commission has affirmed its support for
Lien and Soong, in effect saying that the pan-blues were
united behind their leaders. But legislators up for
re-election in December seem unlikely to tie their
political fortunes to the apparent losers of Saturday's
contest. If the wind shifts decisively against Lien and
Soong, they may find themselves standing alone.
Furthermore, the pan-blues will have to place
the blame for the election debacle on someone. Lien and
Soong, long the targets of corruption and embezzlement
allegations, might find more than their political
careers at stake.
Although Lien and Soong are
fighting for their political lives - and perhaps even
their reputations - it would not be unfair to say there
are some pan-blues who are praying Lien and Soong will
concede the race, opening the way for political
rejuvenation with new blood and new ideas.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
