Dusting
off Deng's dictum: Dodge controversy
By Janus Lam
HONG KONG - Among his many famous sayings and dictums, the late paramount
pragmatist Deng Xiaoping also said: Dodge
WEEKEND CARTOON
controversy, don't argue and put off the tough decisions for the next
generation of office holders. The Hong Kong hornets' nest stirred up by
Beijing's rejection of early universal suffrage would seem to contradict that
advice, but in fact China's leaders are following Deng's advice: delay, delay,
delay.
Beijing's recent to call off early universal suffrage in Hong Kong is the
result of a power vacuum in Zhongnanhai - China's seat of power - and so the
late paramount leader Deng's old doctrine of "dodge controversy" was dusted off
and adopted, an informed source in mainland China has told Asia Times Online.
According to an insider close to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Beijing
leaders envisaged democratic reform in Hong Kong as essential to the fabric of
China's overall political development. This is a major reason why Beijing chose
to use Deng's "leave the matter to the next generation" (of leaders) doctrine
under the circumstances, so that no particular leader in Beijing has the
definitive, final say.
Since the power transition in the 16th CCP Congress in 2002, it is not yet
clear where the real power lies: whether Jiang Zemin - former party chief and
former president but still head of the powerful CCP Central Military Commission
- or CCP general secretary and state President Hu Jintao is the principal
decision maker and shaper of China's main policies. Although Hu has succeeded
Jiang as president and general secretary of the CCP, Jiang remains very
influential as head of the party's critical Central Military Commission - which
has a major say in politics in a system in which the military, government and
business are very much intertwined.
Under the circumstances - and especially whenever there is any controversy, as
in the case of Hong Kong democracy - just about the only thing on which all can
agree is Deng's cumulative advice: dodge controversy, don't argue and leave it
to the next generation in office. Deng died in 1997, but even after he was out
of office, he delivered sage advice and apparently quelled a conservative
rebellion after the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre of peaceful
pro-democracy demonstrators.
Deng: When wrestling with a problem, don't argue
"Don't argue," Deng often said when he tried to resolve an intractable problem.
After the Tiananmen bloodletting, the conservative camp initiated a campaign to
demand a thorough review of China's market reforms pushed for years by Deng,
over leftists' objections. In the end, Deng prevailed, saying, "Don't argue,"
and calming the debate.
Similarly, Deng said, "Leave the problem to the next generation" when he was
dealing with the sovereignty dispute with neighboring countries. When Deng was
mapping out his market reform program, China was caught (and still is) in a
territorial dispute over the Diaoyu Islands with Japan and over the Spratly
Islands with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries. To prevent these
disputes from distracting policymakers from economic reform, Deng strongly
suggested "leaving the issue to the next generation" of leaders.
According to informed sources, the Beijing leadership has agreed to deal with
the Hong Kong constitutional-reform question by "leaving the issue to the next
office", and thus the final verdict for Hong Kong's short-term democratic
reform was announced, while the larger issue and timetable remain.
On Monday the Standing Committee of National People's Congress (NPCSC) ruled
out the possibility of conducting direct universal suffrage to select Hong
Kong's next chief executive in 2007 and the territory's legislature in 2008.
The chief executive is chosen indirectly, largely by those approved by Beijing,
and only half the 60-person Legislative Council (Legco) is elected directly by
the people of Hong Kong.
The executive arm of China's top legislature also ruled that the composition of
Hong Kong's lawmaking body in 2007 should be unchanged, meaning the 1:1 ratio
between the directly elected members and functional-constituency members should
remain the same.
The decision was severely criticized by democrats in Hong Kong as allowing no
advancement, and totally violating the principle of gradual development and the
principle of "attaining universal suffrage eventually" required by the Basic
Law, the constitution that outlines the government of Hong Kong for 50 years
after the British returned its former colony to China in 1997. It says
socialism will not be practiced for 50 years and capitalism will remain in
place for 50 years: it also says the goal is broad democracy and universal
suffrage, but emphasizes the importance of gradualism and taking into account
the situation in Hong Kong.
The first session of the 60-member Legco after the establishment of the Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) consisted of 20 directly elected
members, 30 members chosen by functional constituencies, such as professions,
and 10 members of the Election Committee comprising 800 elected representatives
of the Hong Kong community.
Gradual increase in directly elected lawmakers
In the second term of Legco, 24 members were elected through direct elections,
while 30 were chosen by functional constituencies and six by the Election
Committee. In the third term, six seats chosen by the Election Committee would
be canceled and instead elected directly - which means the number of Legco
members by direct elections and functional constituencies would be at a 1:1
ratio.
According to Hong Kong's democrats, the "gradual development" principle should
have allowed the new Legco in 2008 to increase its number of directly elected
members to a higher ratio compared with that of the last term. According to the
informed political source, Beijing chose to leave the problem as it is, and
leave it until the next term when the situation of the leadership of China
becomes clearer.
As Asia Times Online's source pointed out, after what China calls the Tiananmen
"event" in 1989, Beijing has feared that democracy in Hong Kong could spark the
next round of democratic campaigns and agitation in the mainland. In addition,
after Hong Kong's handover to China in 1997, democratic reform in Hong Kong has
been envisaged as part of China's political architecture.
In fact, the Chinese leadership is still split over whether to resume some
reform initiative planned before the 1989 Tiananmen violence. In the mid-1980s,
then-party leader Zhao Ziyang once introduced measures aiming at
"democratization". These policies included requiring the Political Bureau of
the Central Committee to submit work reports to the Central Committee of the
CCP, and introducing a democratic monitoring system within the party.
After 1989, however, all these measures were called off by Jiang Zemin, clearly
no political reformer. After Hu Jintao took charge, Beijing resumed some of the
"democratized" policies, such as submitting Politburo reports to the Central
Committee and introducing "in-party democracy". Yet there is no indication that
Jiang is pleased with any of these measures. As a result, major democratic
reform is unlikely for both mainland China and Hong Kong.
The real HK and China problem: Jiang's influence
According to the Asia Times Online source, the key to Hong Kong's
constitutional problem lies in the role and influence of Jiang after 2007, when
his term of office ends as head of the CCP Central Military Commission. In 2007
Jiang will be 81. Whether he remains in his post or not will greatly influence
the future of political reform both in Hong Kong and mainland China.
The public has been confused about who has actually been in charge of China's
policy over the past year. According to official ranking, Hu comes first, and
Jiang is the second during civilian official ceremonies; yet on military
occasions, it is the other way around: Jiang comes first, and Hu is No 2.
It is crystal-clear that Hu Jintao cannot ignore the influence of Jiang when
facing important issues, such as the Tiananmen violence. In March, Dr Jiang
Yanyong, who disclosed that China was covering up the problem of severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002, demanded that the central government
reassess the Tiananmen "incident" and rehabilitate the participants and victims
who had been labeled bad elements and counterrevolutionaries. The new Beijing
leadership answered the doctor's demand by blocking all the information about
Dr Jiang on the Internet and elsewhere, and suppressed discussion of the issue
by Chinese citizens. This move - to stonewall and reject discussion - was
widely believed to have been the result of Jiang Zemin's influence.
However, no matter whether it is Jiang or Hu, when dealing with the Hong Kong
issue, neither can avoid the historic factor. Deng Xiaoping strongly suggested
that Hong Kong should have a high degree of autonomy. His suggestion was to
make sure that Hong Kong would escape from "colonial rule". As Hong Kong's
democrats put it, now that China has taken over Hong Kong, colonial-style
dictatorship still persists.
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