Taiwan: Chicken's dying, but monkey's not
scared By Mac William Bishop and Hsu
Shu-chuan
TAIPEI - "Kill the chicken to scare
the monkey," goes the well-worn Chinese proverb. Beijing
may be hoping to apply the strategy exemplified by this
statement to its relations with Taiwan by making a
dramatic show of thwarting and hobbling the democracy
movement in Hong Kong.
If so, it is taking the
wrong approach. The monkey, Taiwan, is defiant,
determined not to become another Beijing-ruled Hong
Kong, and scornful of Beijing's insistence on
cohabitation under a harmonious arrangement of "one
country, two systems".
China in effect dashed
the hopes of Hong Kong's democracy activists by
announcing on April 26 that it would not permit direct
elections in 2007 and 2008 for the chief executive and
legislature; the future for universal suffrage is
unclear, but the signs are not good. A message for
Taiwan? And a few days later, last Friday, as if to back
up the anti-democracy message, China delivered a more
muscular Hong Kong-Taiwan communication: in an
unprecedented show of military force, it sent an
eight-ship naval task force to Hong Kong.
Clearly these were messages meant not only for
the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) opponents in Hong
Kong, many analysts say, but also for the increasingly
strong independence movement in Taiwan.
In 1997,
when the former British colony of Hong Kong reverted to
Beijing's control, the leaders in Zhongnanhai, Beijing's
seat of power, promised to protect democracy and
capitalism in the territory. They vowed not to impose
socialism and even established a 50-year timetable for
direct rule, while emphasizing the importance of a
gradual process.
The takeover and transition of
Hong Kong were closely watched internationally, and many
commentators in Taiwan said it would become a litmus
test for Taipei's approach to cross-Strait relations.
Now that China has decided not to allow direct
elections in 2007 and 2008, more people in Taiwan are
beginning to grasp what many here have believed all
along: the "one country, two systems" policy formulated
by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping won't work.
Taiwanese fatalistic about Hong Kong's
future Most people in Taiwan interviewed by the
Asia Times Online were fatalistic about events in Hong
Kong. This is largely an extension of the futility felt
by most people regarding Taiwan's relationship with
China.
After a four-year freeze in cross-Strait
talks under President Chen Shui-bian's administration,
with no sign of a breakthrough in the near future, most
people believe there is little that Taiwan can - or
should - do to resolve the impasse. And they are
increasingly blaming Beijing's intransigence - not
Taiwan's politicians - for the lack of progress.
Beijing calls Taiwan a renegade and breakaway
province that must be returned to the motherland
eventually, by force if necessary. Most Taiwanese see
themselves as Taiwanese first and emphasize their Taiwan
identity; many see Taiwan's status as one of de facto
independence and some seek formal independence, though
that would mean a cross-Strait conflict.
China's
heavy hand in Hong Kong would seem to confirm the value
of Taiwan's de facto independence.
"I'm glad it
[the delay of direct elections] happened in Hong Kong,
before it could happen in Taiwan," one young Taiwanese
advertising executive said. Her reaction was typical of
the views Asia Times Online heard from people in Taiwan,
although some were more extreme.
"Don't bully
Hong Kong!" one contributor to a Taiwanese online news
chat room wrote, saying that what Beijing really wanted
was to attack Taiwan. He didn't seem overly concerned
about that. "Bring it on!" he wrote.
In an op-ed
article in the daily Chinese-language Liberty Times,
Legislative Yuan lawmaker Parris Chang wrote: "It
becomes ever less likely that Chen will agree to the
'one China' principle, diminishing Taiwan into becoming
a second Hong Kong. Chen has said many times that he is
willing to open talks with China about direct flights on
the basis of a maintained status quo, as part of the
effort to establish a peaceful and stable framework for
negotiations. But Beijing keeps stressing the 'one
China' principle as a prerequisite, thus blocking
meaningful dialogue ... China should initiate dialogue
with Taiwan - unconditionally," said Chang, a prominent
hawk in the governing Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP).
Official word on Hong Kong : We told
you so Official statements from Taiwan were more
diplomatic, yet amounted to a subtle variation of "We
told you so."
"The Democratic Progressive Party
retains its high hopes for the democratization of Hong
Kong and mainland China. Regarding the request by the
people of Hong Kong for a direct leadership election and
a general parliamentary election, the DPP hopes the
Beijing authorities positively examine the requests made
by the people of Hong Kong," said a statement on the
governing party's website.
It included a caveat,
however: "To completely copy the 'one country, two
systems' formula for Hong Kong, not only now but also in
the future, is clearly not suitable for Taiwan. Taiwan
is already a sovereign, independent country named by the
constitution as the Republic of China," the statement
said.
The opposition pan-blue alliance parties,
the Chinese Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) and
the People First Party (PFP) - both seen as more
sympathetic to Beijing - are preoccupied with contesting
the results of the March 20 presidential election and
ongoing internal power struggles. Neither party had
issued any official statements regarding developments in
Hong Kong as of Monday, focusing instead on the "unfair
election".
The measured bureaucratic language of
the "unsuitability" of "one country, two systems" for
Taiwan does not lessen the obvious lesson the people are
learning in negotiating with the CCP about democracy:
don't. This has important implications for the
cross-Strait relationship.
Beijing maintains
that cross-Strait negotiations can only begin if Taiwan
accepts the "one China" policy, and has in the past
promised to pursue "peaceful" unification under the "one
country, two systems" model. If any political leader in
Taiwan, whether Lien Chan of the KMT or President Chen
Shui-bian of the DPP, agreed to such conditions, most
people here - even those who support unification with
China - would be furious. Such a politician might have
more to worry about than a flesh-wound on his stomach
from a homemade bullet - President Chen received such a
wound as he was campaigning on the day before the
presidential election.
China's heavy hand in
HK shows inflexibility Yet China still insists on
trying to apply the "one country, two systems" formula
to the cross-Strait situation. Many people in Taiwan
think this is precisely the problem with the
cross-Strait relationship. Beijing, while nominally
saying it is willing to talk, in fact is not open to
compromise. Recent events in Hong Kong have illustrated
this to perfection.
For Ho Cheng-ta, a
university professor who asked that his institution not
be identified, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's statement
that Hong Kong could "ultimately" hold elections was
unpleasantly similar to the observation of the late
economist John Maynard Keynes - "In the long run, we're
all dead."
"Wen promised elections 'in the
future', but he did not give any real details. He could
have meant 10 years, or several decades, or a century,"
Ho said in an interview with Asia Times Online.
"China's real concern is its economy," he said.
"Its GDP [gross domestic product] is growing very fast
for now, but only a few people have been enriched by
Beijing's policies."
There are still a lot of
social and economic problems in China, and the
leadership does not want people to have a say in their
government because it knows it would then have to take
responsibility for its failures, Ho commented.
"But the point is that people need to have a
voice. This is the way to create an efficient economic
system. Hong Kong has a developed economy and a mature
society. If Beijing tries to stop [Hong Kong's
democratic development], the people there will still
want it," he said.
Hong Kong democracy seen
as a lost cause An advertising executive,
speaking on condition she not be identified (not
uncommon in Taiwan), was even more explicit about the
situation in Hong Kong and how it applied to Taiwan.
Hong Kong is now a part of China, and there is very
little anyone in Taiwan can do to help the people there,
she told Asia Times Online. Hong Kongers will have to do
their best to solve their problems on their own - people
in Taiwan already have plenty to worry about, she said.
The executive laughed off the suggestion that a
"one country, two systems" model could work for Taiwan.
"What does Beijing know about Taiwan? What do they know
about the Taiwanese people?" she said. "They don't care
about us. All they want is more power."
Ho, too,
thought "one country, two systems" was an unlikely
solution to the cross-Strait debate. "Taiwan is a
democracy," Ho said. "Here, the president - no matter
who he is - must respond to the will of the people. If
unification is viewed as beneficial, then it will
happen.
"It is China's precondition that Taiwan
accept the 'one China' policy that is the real obstacle
to negotiations," he said. "The only way to resolve the
impasse is for China to open its mind."
Hong
Kong's fate has not gone unnoticed in Taiwan's media,
and some Hong Kong democracy activists, such as
legislative councilor Emily Lau, have taken their fight
to the editorial columns of Taiwanese newspapers. Their
pleas are unlikely to fall on deaf ears, but most people
in Taiwan don't really think that they can do anything
to help Hong Kong, aside from publicizing the issue.
The advertising executive did not find this
particularly surprising. "What could Hong Kong do if
China invaded Taiwan?" she asked.
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