Chen
'builds bridges' to the mainland
By Macabe Keliher
TAIPEI - The heavens did not look favorably on Taiwanese President Chen
Shui-bian this week. An earthquake, an out-of-season typhoon, subtle
taunts from Beijing and an inauguration in the pouring rain could have been a
bad omen for Chen. But he was defiant (even slipping in a remark about "the
rains clearing our heads"): "Today I wish to reaffirm the principles and
promises set forth in my year 2000 inaugural speech - they have not changed in
the past four years, and they will not change in the next four," he said on
Thursday in his 2004 inaugural speech.
By all accounts, it was a deft tactic by the re-elected pro-independence
president, who faces heavy pressures at home and across the Taiwan Strait.
Political opposition parties have not let up disputing what they claim was the
staging of an assassination attempt and rigging of votes; Beijing just handed
Chen a carrot and threatened him with a stick in a statement that laid out its
cross-Strait framework; and the United States has bombarded the Chen
administration over the past few weeks with a number of high-level envoys
conveying a stern message to back away from anything that would even appear to
look like moves toward independence from the mainland.
Chen's speech on Thursday morning, in a downpour that only intensified as
midday neared, tried to assuage these severe irritations to his presidency by
appealing to the cross-Strait status quo and promoting "peace and stability".
In addressing the island's domestic situation, Chen praised Taiwan's democracy
and "the exercise of sovereignty by the people", which he then used to shape
his vision of cross-Strait relations. "Taiwan and China can seek to establish
relations in any form whatsoever. We would not exclude any possibility, so long
as there is the consent of the 23 million people of Taiwan." Ever the keeper of
stability, Chen seemed to say change would only happen by the will of the
people. "We must work together to guarantee there will be no unilateral change
to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," he said.
Chen spoke of "cross-Strait dialogue", of "building bridges" and of
"establishing a foundation for mutual trust", which was what the United States
wanted to hear. In the lead-up to Thursday's inauguration, the US flooded
Taiwan with envoys who made it personally known to Chen, as well as to nearly
everyone involved in his administration, that the US "wants to hear a clear and
unequivocal statement that sovereignty and independence are not part [of Chen's
vision]", as one senior White House administration official was quoted as
saying by the Far Eastern Economic Review.
Foremost was the fear in Washington that Chen would take his re-election as a
mandate to push for independence, which would send Beijing over the edge and
lead to military action, or war. For example, Beijing has made it clear that it
would be unable to tolerate a change in the constitution in a way that would
define Taiwan's sovereignty - an issue on which Chen had campaigned.
And though Chen did touch on constitutional reform in his inaugural address,
instead of the radical proposal for change that many were expecting, which
would have defined Taiwan as distinctly separate from China, Chen was "fully
aware that consensus has yet to be reached on issues related to national
sovereignty, territory and the subject of unification/independence", he said.
"Therefore, let me explicitly propose that these particular issues be excluded
from the present constitutional-reform project."
However, Chen did add that he plans to have passed a new constitution by the
time his current term ends in 2008. But rather than sovereignty issues, it will
address "good governance and administrative efficiency", such as whether to
have a presidential or parliamentary system, a specific voting age, or military
service requirements.
Absent from his speech were Chen's "five noes" - no independence, no change in
Taiwan's official name, no constitutional change, no referendum on independence
and no abolition of Taiwan's guidelines for unification - which took prominence
in his 2000 address and served as a precedence by which to judge his policies.
Interestingly enough, in a statement on Monday, China criticized Chen for not
sticking to his five noes, which political analysts here say was
simply a taunt by Beijing in the hope that Chen would repeat the controversial
policy approach.
And while Chen refrained from falling victim to Beijing's statement, it did not
come without effect. "Everyone will read Chen's inauguration address as a
response to this statement," said Philip Hsu, an assistant research fellow at
the Institute of International Relations in Taipei. "It clearly lays out a
vision for what China will do next."
China's statement did include a much stronger resolve to attack than
anything Beijing had said before. Taipei's leaders, the statement read, must
"pull back immediately from their dangerous lurch towards independence" or face
"their own destruction". And "if Taiwan leaders should move recklessly to
provoke major incidents of Taiwan independence, the Chinese people will crush
their schemes firmly and thoroughly at any cost".
But these threats were reserved for the last paragraph, in which the statements
carrots, however, found Beijing offering the clearest sign of its
wishes to preserve the status quo. And even then, the hard line for unification
that China has pursued in the past was not quite as evident. That is to say, it
did not pursue a unification agenda that called for the island quickly to
embrace the mainland as its master or risk death. Instead, Beijing called on
Taiwan not to move toward independence, and laid out a framework for the next
four years that involved dialogue, direct transportation, communication and air
links between the sides, closer economic cooperation and attempts to address
"the issue of international living space of Taiwan".
All things considered, Beijing appears to have accepted that Taiwan's
pro-independence sentiments are strong, and it has taken the next step to
address how both China and Taiwan can co-exist under a framework acceptable to
both sides. Should everything remain static, and independence agendas be put on
hold, Beijing might be able to live and let live, and it may even give Taiwan a
bit of international breathing space.
Given his vows not to provoke change, Chen does seem to have a good start in
meeting this challenge. But his second term has just begun, and there are still
four years to judge by.
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