The Taipei triad: Taiwan,
US, Japan By Mac William
Bishop
TAIPEI - Imagine this: The United States
asks Taiwan to provide 5,000 Taiwanese Marines to patrol
the streets of Iraq's cities. Japanese Ground
Self-Defense Forces practice repelling an amphibious
assault by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) on
Miyako-shima in the Ryukyu Chain, only 260 kilometers
from Taiwan. The US starts sending general staff
military officers on goodwill visits to Taipei, and US
military personnel openly attend Taiwan's military
exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
None of these
scenarios has come to pass, nor are they in the offing -
but all have been proposed in recent weeks. Only a short
time ago, all would have seemed unthinkable. A casual
observer might view these disparate and, some would say
highly unlikely, propositions and conclude that Tokyo
and Washington were intent on demonstrating that they
mean business in East Asia. And they do.
China
recently has heightened its bellicose rhetoric - and it
may not be mere rhetoric - about its determination to
regain what it calls a "renegade" province, but which
many Taiwanese consider a separate, sovereign nation -
or in any case, an island entity that doesn't want to be
ruled by China. Both before and after Taiwan President
Chen Shui-bian was inaugurated on May 20, Beijing
reaffirmed its military option and vowed to "completely
annihilate" any Taiwan moves toward independence, even
if doing so means means losing the 2008 Olympic Games
and forfeiting good relations with the US.
Hardline elements in both Washington and Tokyo
have long wanted to increase their countries' commitment
to the security of the Taiwan Strait. Although menacing
developments in North Korea's nuclear program have
certainly spurred a lot of this new activism in regional
security, conservatives in Japan and the US are even
more concerned with what they view as the long-term
strategic issue of paramount concern to both capitals
and to all of Asia: the rise of China.
Legislation introduced recently in both
countries is an example of the long-term strategic
thinking of the China hawks in traditionally pacifist
Japan and the far from pacifist United States.
New legislation On May 20, the day of
Chen Shui-bian's inauguration, the lower house of
Japan's parliament passed a set of seven bills aimed
primarily at expanding the ability of Japan's Ground
Self-Defense Forces to react to a crisis, particularly
in Japan's southernmost island chain - and by extension
the Taiwan Strait. The legislation, heavily criticized
by anti-war activists for a provision that allows the
suspension of some civil liberties in the event of a
crisis, would allow Japan to provide direct support to
US forces in the event of a military crisis "in the
areas surrounding Japan" - which many analysts have
taken to include a crisis in the Taiwan
Strait.
The seven bills are expected to pass the
Upper House of the Diet and go into effect before the
end of Japan's current legislative term on June 16.
Elections to the Upper House, crucial to Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi's political future and Japan's
security ties with the US, will be held on July
12.
One of the most important provisions of the
legislation would allow Japanese ships to "inspect or
restrict the operations of" ships carrying supplies to
"a country attacking Japan". Analysts say this is a step
beyond what might be considered a purely defensive
military posture, and would, for example, allow Japanese
submarines to sink Chinese troop transports and supply
convoys if China launched an attack against Japanese
territory.
In effect, the legislation allows
unrestricted naval warfare, in which Japan, with a
war-renouncing constitution, has not engaged since World
War II.
But does anyone in Japan actually believe
China would launch an attack? In short, yes.
The
legislation followed a white paper released by the
Japanese Defense Agency's Ground Staff Office, which
posited an invasion of islands in the Ryukyu chain by an
unnamed force, identified only as "Country X", either in
conjunction with or as a prelude to an attack on
"Country D", also not identified in the paper. Japanese
defense sources, however, speaking on condition of
anonymity, told Asia Times Online that "X" was China and
"D" was Taiwan.
Under such a scenario, the
Japanese islands of Yoniguni, Miyako and Ishigaki would
be invaded or attacked by Country X in an attempt to
thwart intervention by US and Japanese forces.
Critics and analysts inside and outside of Japan
said the scenario was highly unrealistic and that the
best way of interpreting the white paper was to see it
as an attempt by the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force
to emphasize its importance in advance of the Defense
Agency's annual budget review.
However, some
elements within Japan's defense establishment consider
Tokyo's involvement likely, should a Taiwan Strait
conflict erupt. Should the US - which is committed to
defend Taiwan militarily and which sells Taipei
defensive arms - enter the fray, "likely" would quickly
become "inevitable," analysts say. Faced with a
potential triple threat, China would probably want to
inhibit US-Japan operations against its forces from
bases in the Ryukyu chain near
Taiwan.
Japan-Taiwan ties Getting
hawkish about the Taiwan issue is hardly a fringe
pastime for Japanese politicians, and some have taken
the re-election of President Chen as an opportunity to
push for greater Taiwan-Japan cooperation.
A
contingent of prominent Japanese officials attended the
inauguration of President Chen, led by Tokyo Governor
Ishihara Shintaro, often considered the most popular
politician in Japan. Ishihara is notorious for his
racist comments and hardline stance toward China, having
described the Rape of Nanjing as "a lie made up by the
Chinese", and saying that "Chinese people were so
ecstatic [about China's first manned space flight]
because they are ignorant."
President Chen is
taking Tokyo's support quite seriously. On May 18,
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Koh
Se-kai, a pro-independence activist and democracy
dissident formerly blacklisted by the opposition
Kuomintang (KMT), would become the de facto ambassador
to Japan. Because Tokyo formally recognizes Beijing as
the government of China, it can maintain only unofficial
ties with Taiwan. Koh lived in exile in Japan for 33
years during Taiwan's martial law era and maintains
extensive ties to senior political and academic figures
in Japan. Among his friends are several former prime
ministers of Japan, and Koh earned his master's degree
at Japan's Waseda University and a doctorate at Tokyo
University. He is now a professor of Japanese Studies at
Taiwan's Providence University.
Koh has promised
to tone down his pro-independence stance "in his
official capacity", but privately he also has said he is
committed to advocating Taiwan's independence as a
sovereign nation. The professor has long stressed
Taiwan's need for increasing security cooperation
between Taiwan and Japan.
Koh's hawkish views may
well resonate in Tokyo, and his extensive ties to
Japanese officials should help him to promote Taiwan's
agenda. The appointment of a pro-independence figure to
such a prominent post is a signal of the Chen
administration's desire to expand the security links
between Japan and Taiwan.
Send in the
marines Last week, the US House of
Representatives also passed HR 4200, the National
Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2005, which
included one provision, Section 1215, that allows the US
to send high-level military personnel to Taiwan.
Currently, only military personnel of the rank of
colonel or below and their civilian equivalents are
permitted to travel to the island. The new legislation
would enable US defense officials of any rank, even the
secretary of defense, to travel to Taiwan. Passage in
the US Senate may be more difficult.
In addition,
two US Republican congressmen from the Taiwan caucus,
Representative Dana Rohrabacher from California and Jim
Ryun from Kansas, submitted a resolution (HR 437) that
would require the administration of President George W
Bush to ask Taiwan to send 5,000 Marines to join the
US-led coalition in Iraq.
The suggestion was met
with immediate skepticism in Taiwan and the US, even
from some pro-Taiwan independence figures.
"We
oppose a war that is unjustified. The government should
not try to meddle in this mess," said Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU) Legislator Chen Chien-ming. The TSU is the
most pro-independence political party in
Taiwan.
A Chinese Nationalist Party Legislator
was equally blunt. "If [President Chen] wants to avoid
warfare between China and Taiwan, then it would not be
justified to send troops overseas," KMT legislator Liao
Feng-teh said.
Even a pop star weighed in against
the suggestion. The Taiwanese singer, who holds dual
Taiwan-US citizenship, went so far as to destroy his US
passport on stage. "They [the US] say we should attack
Iraq and then they would protect us. It is a dirty
trade-off," singer Lou Ta-you said as he cut his
passport to pieces mid-concert on Sunday.
Other
officials were more open to the suggestion, notably
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator Trong
Tsai, long an advocate of increased US-Taiwan military
cooperation.
"Without US help, Taiwan would have
been in China's grasp long ago," Tsai said, referring to
the missile crisis of 1996, when US president Bill
Clinton sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the
Taiwan Strait in response to Chinese missile tests
during the election. "It would be unfriendly of us
toward the US if we turn down the request when it comes
up."
Taiwan's presidential office dodged the
controversy, with various officials saying only that no
request had been made by the US. The US State Department
was quick to downplay the issue. "We're not seeking such
a contribution. It's really a moot point," State
Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on
Monday.
In the past, Taiwan has contributed to US
military operations abroad, during the Korean and
Vietnam wars. But during those periods, Taiwan was
recognized as the Republic of China, a sovereign nation,
by both the US and the United Nations, while the
People's Republic of China was not.
What lies
ahead It is extremely unlikely that Taiwan will
be asked to contribute forces to the occupation of Iraq,
given the predictable furious reaction from China.
Senior military personnel in both Taiwan and the US do
not approve of such an operation. If such a request were
made, it would be extremely difficult for Taiwan to
accede to it. In addition to the logistical difficulties
of such an operation, domestic opposition would be
intense, and China would certainly
protest.
Increased activism by the Japanese
Ground Self-Defense Forces regarding the Taiwan Strait
is obvious. But it is far from clear that this signals a
commitment on the part of Tokyo to defending Taiwan in
the event of Chinese military activity. As a retired
Japanese general told Asia Times Online in March, "Japan
wants stability in the Taiwan Strait. We hope that
Taiwan and China can maintain the status
quo."
The Japanese public is not averse to
increased military activity by the Japanese Ground
Self-Defense Forces, but enthusiasm ebbs quickly once
politicians start talking about military adventures
abroad.
Will Japan commit itself to the defense
of Taiwan? The Chen administration clearly hopes so, and
needs all the help it can get.
Mac William
Bishop is a former US Marine and journalist based in
Taipei. Comments may be sent to mwbtaiwan@hotmail.com.
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