China's 'phantom regent' still very
real By Wang Chu
HONG KONG -
Beijing has promoted 15 military officials to four-star
generals, including the top bodyguard of
commander-in-chief Jiang Zemin. Political pundits say
this move indicates that Jiang, the country's former
president and party chief, will not be stepping down any
time soon, and still clings fiercely to power.
In fact, Jiang recently sent his protege, Vice
President Zeng Qinghong, on a vital and sensitive
mission to Africa, with the aim of persuading South
Africa to end sales of nuclear materials with military
applications to wayward, independence-leaning Taiwan,
thus further isolating the island in the international
community.
Jiang, 77, handed the top job in the
Communist Party to his successor, Hu Jintao, in 2002 and
the state presidency in 2003, but he held tight to the
chairmanship of the party's powerful Central Military
Commission (CMC), the country's highest military body.
According to the state-run Xinhua News Agency, a
promotion ceremony was held on June 20 in Beijing's
secretive and closely guarded Zhongnanhai leadership
compound. The promotion was ordered by Jiang and
announced by Hu. This was the eighth time that Jiang
made similar promotions, now totaling 79 military
officials, since he rose to be chairman of the CMC in
1989.
The most noticeable among the elevated
officials is You Xigui, a former lieutenant-general and
director of the Central Bodyguards Bureau responsible
for the security of top state leaders, who has been
seeing to the security of Jiang for some 10 years. He
will continue to do so. Allowing You to remain chief
bodyguard indicates that Jiang wants to stay on, since
he prefers a high-powered confidant, analysts told Asia
Times Online.
Military experts point out that
You's upgrade goes against the party's protocol: first,
servicemen elevated to full general from the same
position are limited in number; second, You fails to
meet two key requirements. One is that the person must
hold positions for one or two years in China's major
military regions and the other is that he must be a
lieutenant-general for at least four years. It leaves
one to wonder whether it was cronyism or another reason
that You was singled out and singly moved upstairs by
the former president.
Even Mao's bodyguard
never got military rank It also was noted that
Wang Dongxing, the top bodyguard of Mao Zedong, was not
even awarded a modest military title. The promotion of
You is therefore a surprise for many who are familiar
with norms in the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
According to a government source, Jiang singled
out You for promotion in the 1990s after he seized a
package hurled at Jiang's limousine in Beijing. "Jiang
was shaken ... but impressed with You's bravery and
loyalty," said a source speaking to Asia Times Online on
condition of anonymity. Later, the package, thought to
be a bomb, turned out to be documents from a petitioner.
Soon, the top bodyguard was upgraded to major-general in
1990 and lieutenant-general in 1997.
Judging
from some of his high-profile gestures made earlier this
year, political pundits speculate that the former
president might be trying to retain control over the
military until the party's 17th national congress to be
held in three years. Last year, despite whispers of
nepotism, Jiang made his son Jiang Mianheng the deputy
commander of China's first manned space flight program.
As if to illustrate his determination to retain
his influence over the military, he has made frequent
public appearances since April, such as ordering merits
for military technicians. On May 9, he authorized
strengthening of the party's control over the armed
forces.
In fact, some pro-President Hu Jintao
officials were also elevated by Jiang. An illuminating
example is Ge Zhengfeng, deputy chief of the General
Staff since 2002, who has close ties with Chief of
General Staff Liang Guanglie, a stanch supporter of Hu
Jintao.
The internal wrestling inside Beijing'
corridors of power, as always, is expected to continue.
Hu is widely expected to replace Jiang as the CMC
chairman at some point, but when Jiang will accept the
bitter reality of the final, inevitable handover is
anybody's guess.
Meantime, the jockeying for
power also extends to Vice President Zeng Qinghong, who
also aspires to military elevation and troop command.
Zeng embarked on June 20 on a state visit to four
African countries - Tunisia, Togo, Benin and South
Africa. His last stop, if ending up with fruitful
agreements - like ending economic/military cooperation
with Taiwan - is expected to help admission to China's
supreme military leadership, as a new vice chairman of
Jiang's CMC.
Taiwan's nuclear
imports In the past, South Africa maintained
diplomatic relations for a long period with Taiwan, the
so-called insurgent province that Beijing wants to
marginalize in the international political arena. Today,
South Africa has one of the strongest militaries on the
African continent. Taiwan also has been importing from
South Africa nuclear materials that can be harnessed for
power or weaponry.
Hau Pei-tsun, Taiwan's former
premier and defense minister, disclosed in his
autobiography, Diary of Eight Years as Chief of the
General Staff - that the island was capable of
producing nuclear weapons 18 years ago, but was coerced
by the United States in 1988 to halt its nuclear
research. If true, Taiwan should be close to a threshold
nuclear power now, pursuant to the nuclear club's
yardstick on research and development in nuclear
weaponry.
Beijing has long been upset by
Taiwan's potential for developing nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Vice President Zeng Qinghong may have been
sent on a mission to persuade South Africa to stop
exporting nuclear materials to Taiwan. If he succeeds,
he will definitely gain credit and fortify his
aspirations to join the nation's top military echelon.
In the impending negotiation with South Africa,
Zeng may have some military cards to play. In 2001, the
Zimbabwe government, in perennial tension with South
Africa, confirmed that it had purchased from China 12
FC-1 fighters and 100 military vehicles, together worth
US$240 million. Before that, South Africa's former
foreign minister had sought to persuade China not to
sell arms to Zimbabwe, but he was unsuccessful. So, it
is surmised these days that China will trade off the
arms sales, agreeing not to sell to Zimbabwe, in
exchange for South Africa's promise not to provide
Taiwan with more nuclear materials.
In addition,
whether the Chinese vice president can clinch an arms
import deal with South Africa is also a focus of
international attention. Years ago, the latter delivered
an order to the Blohm & Voss Shipyard based in
Germany for four light frigates that both rims of the
Taiwan Strait covet very much. The frigates, developed
by the South African Navy itself, boast a stealth design
that is difficult to spot with radar, sonar or
self-guiding tracking system of a cruise missile: a
technology extremely crucial to maritime maneuver.
Successful mission will strengthen Jiang's
protege If Zeng convinces South Africa to
transfer the technology to China instead of Taiwan,
China will undoubtedly consolidate its military
supremacy over Taiwan and Zeng will gain in prestige
among China's armed forces.
It is apparent that
Zeng has long harbored an ambition to enter the CMC
leadership. During an April visit to Shanghai, he
inspected two destroyer and frigate manufacturers. Last
year, he held meetings with the defense ministers of
Uganda, Australia and Brazil.
Zeng is regarded
as the protege and key figure in Jiang Zemin's brain
trust. It is speculated that Jiang, dubbed a regent
phantom in Beijing, may be willing to renounce his
command of the troops on one condition: that Zeng is
elected vice chairman of the military commission.
Zeng Qinghong was the first son in a family with
a distinguished military background. His mother Deng
Liujin joined the Chinese Communist Party junta in 1931
and was among 27 female survivors of the two-year,
25,000-kilometer Long March - a forced retreat or
flight, some say, after the junta lost an anti-siege
battle to the Kuomintang in 1934.
Furthermore,
the Zengs, who hold posts in the army, have all been
promoted in recent years, according to reports. Zeng
Qingyang, the third son, was a regimental chief at the
Military Academy of Sciences, but now is director of the
Scientific Research & Development Department under
the academy. Zeng Qingyuan, the fourth son, was a
lieutenant-colonel at the Chinese Air Force Academy, but
now is commissar in the logistics division of the PLA
air force. Zeng Haisheng, the fifth daughter, was a vice
director under the PLA General Staff Headquarters, but
now is a director. The trio are ranking major generals
at the moment.
And Vice President Zeng Qinghong
hopes to join them if he succeeds in his mentor Jiang
Zemin's South Africa mission, further isolating Taiwan
internationally.
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