HONG KONG -
Ever since the Taiwan presidential elections and their
tumultuous aftermath in March, political uncertainty,
despite generally good business news, has generated a
mass emigration to the mainland. After North America,
Europe and Oceania, mainland China now ranks as the
fourth hottest emigration choice for Taiwanese,
according to the latest survey conducted by the island's
Ministry of Interior Affairs and released in April.
Apart from businessmen, the white-collar bourgeoisie,
who feel pessimistic about Taiwan, also are joining the
increasing exodus.
According to large mainland
property agencies, inquiries from Taiwanese clients, who
are mainly interested in purchasing houses in Shanghai
and Guangdong province, have increased by about 30%
recently. Further, sales figures provided by several
property agencies in mainland China also indicate a 30%
growth in the first quarter this year compared with the
last quarter of last year.
"In fact, some
Taiwanese compatriots were keeping in touch with us
inactively. After the vote and inauguration of
independence-leaning Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian,
they are more active in sending faxes to arrange a tour
of the house and even [to read] the sales deed. Some
other clients who were going to lease a house have
changed their minds to buy it now," said one agent,
speaking on condition of anonymity.
Meanwhile,
in Taiwan, investment and emigration agencies in general
have received inquiries, via the Internet, telephone or
in person, for or five times more than before. A large
number of customers who were still considering moving
made up their minds after the March voting. China
repeatedly has issued stern military warnings against
Taiwan separatists and Beijing views Chen as a divisive
independence-seeker.
China has openly opposed
Chen, who it sees as a separatist, and it repeatedly has
warned Taiwan that Beijing will be compelled to take
military action if certain elements in Taiwan continue
to repudiate reunification with the mainland and
emphasize separate Taiwan identity, even independence.
The first-ever large exodus from Taiwan to the
mainland took place in 1997 when the two sides of the
Taiwan Strait were embroiled in serious tension after
China launched its second set of "missile tests" on the
eve of Taiwan's first democratic presidential elections.
But nowadays, application for emigration does not only
come from businessmen and investors, but also from the
highly educated and skilled white-collar bourgeoisie,
largely in their 30s and 40s, married or single.
A potential brain drain from
Taiwan This is a potential brain drain.The new
applicants are mainly comprised of swing or nonpartisan
voters, including doctors, engineers, educators, bank
managers, and so forth, some of whom have gained
advanced degrees in their fields. Moreover, the
exodus-to-mainland cohort is extending to many walks of
life in Taiwan.
The March election period was
also the time for Taiwanese students to submit their
applications to institutions for higher education on the
mainland. During Taiwan's post-election chaos, when the
opposition cried foul and demanded a recount, many
students were busy inquiring about mainland universities
through their friends or through telephone counseling.
Applications from Taiwanese students to mainland
universities are expected to increase this year.
According to some universities surveyed in Guangdong
province, the number of applications has increased
significantly, though statistics are not available.
Given that the Taiwan government has not
promoted cross-Strait direct links in trade, mail and
transportation, large banks, insurance companies and
securities firms on the island have set up offices in
mainland coastal cities, ready to establish branches. In
addition, many Taiwan-based conglomerates have moved
their headquarters to or established research and
development bases in Shanghai. Despite Beijing's efforts
to cool its super-heated economy and its considerable
pressure on the pro-independence Taiwan businessmen, the
"gold rush" from Taiwan to the mainland continues
unabated.
According to statistics from the
Taiwan Ministry of Interior, emigrants from 1990 to 1999
totaled about 196,500. Since 2000, the figure has not
been officially updated, but knowledgeable sources
estimate the annual average at between 15,000 and
20,000. It is presumed that the number has been growing
and will continue to grow much higher since the
presidential election in March.
A recent survey
conducted by the Taiwan media concerning emigration to
the mainland indicates that some 30% of the interviewed
emigrants have bought real estate, while 40% plan to do
so in a year; more than half of the emigrants feel
"happy" or "very happy" about their life in the
mainland. In the aftermath of the divisive election, the
prices of deluxe properties and villas along the
mainland coastline, especially in Shanghai, Guangdong,
Fujian, Jiangsu and Hieing provinces, have rebounded due
to Taiwanese buyers.
The survey also shows that
some 30% of the interviewees intend to move to mainland
China, representing a record high with a 12% increase
over last year. Why is the mainland the fourth-hottest
emigration choice after North America, Europe and
Oceania? Because the political and economic atmosphere
in Taiwan remains unsettled, even inclement, while the
mainland offers a vista of promising developments,
according to some 30% of the professionals interviewed.
At present, an estimated million Taiwanese have
settled on the other rim of the Strait, including
investors and entrepreneurs, employees of Taiwanese
companies, their families and opportunity seekers. The
one million figure is an estimate by mainland
authorities, cited by its various ministries.
Real estate the real indicator The
purchase of mainland real estate is a strong indicator
of Taiwanese's sentiments about instability on the
island.
After the controversial presidential
election in March, narrowly won (some say stolen by
Chen), many Taiwanese flocked to the mainland to buy
property and to distance themselves from the island's
political instability - and Beijing's unambiguous
warnings against the wayward province straying further
from the embrace of the motherland. Favored destinations
include Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen, the most
developed regions in southern China's Guangdong
province, where many Taiwanese-funded enterprises have
clustered.
Luxury flats and villas are the first
choices, especially those in complexes with Taiwanese
neighbors.This partly contributes to the high-end
property boom in Shenzhen and Dongguan.
At this
time, quality flats in downtown Shenzhen are priced at
600-700 yuan (US$72-84) per square foot, while similar
apartments in Dongguan only cost 400 yuan per square
foot. In contrast, a flat of the same quality in Hong
Kong usually costs 5-11 times more. This is why
Taiwanese put Dongguan and Shenzhen on the top of their
destination lists.
When considering buying a
house, location is always the first concern. Shenzhen
and Dongguan, home to over 10,000 Taiwanese businesses,
appear ideal. Their desirable factors include supporting
facilities, security, environmental hygiene,
availability of parking, potential investment returns
and the conditions of neighborhood - Taiwanese
communities are preferred.
In those prosperous
regions of Dongguan, including Humen, Guancheng and
Houjie, garden-style villas and mansions have
mushroomed. Some are specifically targeted at Taiwanese
buyers. Alternatively, some prefer building their own
dream houses. Over 200 Taiwanese businessmen have
purchased land for house building in Dongguan and more
are inquiring with authorities about further supply of
building lots.
Li, a Taiwanese industrialist who
bought a house in Houjie in 2002, told AToL in an
interview: "Most of my fellow Taiwanese have their own
homes in Guangdong now. The number of Taiwanese planning
for property purchases in Shenzhen and Dongguan is still
rising. Developed Taiwanese communities there hold lots
of appeal to them," he said, speaking on condition he
not be identified.
In the early 1990s, the
families of Taiwanese businessmen had to make do with
pretty rough conditions within the premises of their own
own factories, so there was no way they could make
themselves feel at home. A quality education for their
children on the mainland, an important issue to
Taiwanese, was also a problem for immigrants who sought
higher standards than those available. They turned to
local governments for help in setting up what they call
Taiwanese communities on the mainland.
Exclusive schools and hospitals Their
efforts eventually paid off. Now, Dongguan has built
several schools exclusively for Taiwanese, and
Taiwanese-oriented hospitals are also under
construction. In addition, Taiwanese communities have
taken shape. In return, all these have turned into new
selling points for the mainland realty industries
seeking Taiwanese buyers in both Dongguan and Shenzhen.
Meantime, despite amazingly high property prices
and accommodation fees, Hong Kong has never been
excluded from some Taiwan lists. Industry insiders told
AToL that one Taiwanese business inquired through an
investment bank about the possible purchase of 50 flats
in a landmark luxury complex, Sorrento, with a total
worth of HK$650-700 million ($83-90 million).
On
the other hand, a few have even joined the Hong Kong
territory's investment immigrant program, the Capital
Investment Entrant Scheme. An investment of HK$6.5
million into Hong Kong's realty or financial assets can
grant the applicant the right of abode in the territory.
Then, living in Hong Kong for seven consecutive years
will secure permanent residency. According to statistics
from Hong Kong authorities, 193 applications, 33 of them
from Taiwanese, have been approved since the scheme was
first introduced last October.
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