Mapping a yellow silk road in
macadam By Michael Mackey
SHANGHAI - There's a grand plan for an Asian
Highway Network linking at least 23 countries including
major nations such as China and India. But
logistics-industry sources consider it a daunting,
expensive and unpersuasive project, perhaps a would-be
wonder-of-the-world unlikely to be realized.
Logistics-industry sources have remained
distinctly unmoved by the United Nations plans for an
Asian Highway Network, forged by the UN Economic and
Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP).
Twenty-three of the 26 countries in the plan are in the
process of ratifying the accord. The region's major
economic players, such as China and India, pledge to
continue modifying their domestic roadways to facilitate
international trade and exchanges.
The agreement
maps out a road-transportation network in Asia, setting
down basic technical standards for the roads and their
route signs. Minimum standards in this case mean two
lanes and paved. UNESCAP says the goal is to complete a
140,000-kilometer network of standardized roadways
criss-crossing the Asian continent - and eventually
linking up with Europe's road network.
"What we
are trying to do through the Asian Highway Network is to
create the same types of opportunities that exist in the
coastal areas for the wide hinterland countries,
particularly to provide opportunities for landlocked
countries and their neighbors to be able to be able to
trade more effectively," said Barry Cable, director of
UNESCAP's Transport and Tourism Division.
The
highway, he said in an interview with Asia Times Online,
is an attempt to remedy the paradoxical situation in
which it is easier and "cheaper to trade with Europe and
America than the country next door".
The example
he cited was that China cannot trade easily with Laos
but is able to trade half a world away with America and
Europe, all because of the lack of overland Asian
infrastructure. Similarly it is next to impossible for
the Central Asian republics to trade with China because
of the lack of decent overland infrastructure.
In addition to the problem of physical
infrastructure is the requirement of bilateral or
multilateral pacts to settle issues as permission for
entry, quotas and the distance foreign vehicles can
travel in another country - something now being
addressed with UNESCAP. The highway well might beckon
but only for those with the right paperwork.
Partly because of these and other hurdles,
logistics providers are far from enthusiastic. Many of
them them are multinational and concerned with getting
China's products from its the industrial coastal belt to
Europe, the United States or elsewhere. Largely they
operate by ship or by plane. Roads are of limited
usefulness.
"For local purposes it's okay," said
one Shanghai logistics-industry source who asked not to
be named. "But on a such a big scale it would make
trucking cargo to Europe extremely expensive."
But to illustrate the scale and complexity of
the task, one logistics source in Shanghai quipped, "Did
they make a decision on whether to drive on the left or
the right?" Actually, they didn't decide, because they
opted for a policy of local rules; change countries and
the side of the road you drive on may change too - and
that's just the beginning of the complications.
UNESCAP officials estimate the 140,000km network
is 83% complete - with an additional US$16 billion
required to invest in highway upgrades and signage. The
outstanding 17% is mostly in the landlocked, the poorest
and most ravaged parts of Asia, such as Afghanistan and
Mongolia. UNESCAP has just started to look at the
investment required, although the money problem is an
enormous obstacle that won't go away.
"The
countries themselves have the primary responsibility for
financing, upgrading and development. However,
International Financial Institutions [IFIs] and
bilateral donors are active in providing support," said
Barry Cable, director of UNESCAP's Transport and Tourism
Division.
China is an interesting case study of
the highway's potential problems. It has 26,000km either
already linked or planned to be linked to it. Of those,
11,000km are already built and 15,000km will be ready by
2010. These roads connect 130 cities in an area of
nearly 300 million people - a lot by European standards
but less than a quarter of the Chinese population.
Highways in China are built by the provincial
and local authorities and tend to be done on the cheap -
requiring constant rebuilding. One coastal province,
Shandong, contracted out all the highway building to
companies that then got a 10-year franchise to collect
the tolls. "It's expensive to drive on the highway in
Shandong, but the roads are nice, I've got to say,"
acknowledged one logistics-industry official.
Nice they may be, efficient they are not, since
most container trucks were then priced off the road as
tolls consumed their profit margin. How this issue and
others such as capacity are resolved will give a clear
sign as to whether the highway does for Asia what a
similar plan did for Europe in the late 1950s, or
whether it is remembered as just a good idea that never
really materialized.
Should it fail for whatever
reason, UNESCAP is already thinking of what to do for
trans-Asian railways. "The critical element of the
trans-Asia railway agreement will be with respect to the
inter-operability of the railways, the operation of the
management organizations which are in the government, in
terms of how to schedule trains and where the gauges of
the trains are different, [how] to collaborate together
to change the cargo," said Cable.
This would be
on different territory not only in terms of
infrastructure already existing but also in terms of the
precedent of the highways. "Now the countries have
gained confidence on this [the Asian Highway Network],
we hope things go smoothly," said Cable. So far it looks
good with negotiations scheduled for this November in
Bangkok and a possible signing at the end of 2006.
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