'Pivot of Asia' sees China-Pakistan
maneuvers By Colin
Mackerras
What is the context and meaning of the
three-day joint Pakistan-China military exercises that
began on August 4 in Xinjiang in China's far west?
I see the implications and context as
particularly significant in three areas. First, the
exercises might say something about the situation in
Xinjiang itself. Then there are the emerging
international relations in the Central and South Asian
regions, where a struggle against terrorism had been
creating profound effects even well before the September
11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.
And finally, what about the West, and especially the
United States: do they have any significance for
Xinjiang and its region?
The joint exercises are
also part of an unnecessary show of force against Uighur
separatism. In my opinion, there is indeed terrorism in
Xinjiang, but it is not nearly as serious as the Chinese
authorities appear to think. Chinese repression is far
more severe than any legitimate fear of terrorism and
separatism would warrant.
The drill included
live firing and took place in Taxkorgan, a very
high-elevation region very near China's border with
Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan. The people of the
area are mostly Tajiks, a Muslim ethnic minority who
speak an Iranian language and numbered 41,028 souls
according to China's national census of November 2000.
The stated purpose of the exercises, which were code
named simply "Friendship 2004", was to strengthen
military cooperation between Pakistan and China against
terrorism and maintain regional stability.
I
argue that the military exercises are a symbol of
Chinese power, showing willingness and ability to
suppress all signs of terrorism and separatism in
Xinjiang. They are also a symbol of China's growing
diplomatic influence and skills in the Central and South
Asian regions and its ability to use that influence
against separatism and terrorism in the region, and
especially within its own borders. They occur in a
context that sees China's relations with the United
States as somewhat unstable, but currently basically
positive. Both countries want success in the war against
terrorism but have different policies and interests in
some areas, such as the war in Iraq and China's call for
Taiwan reunification. Whether the military exercises
will succeed in maintaining regional stability remains
to be seen, but there is a good chance they will.
The situation in Xinjiang Xinjiang
lies in China's far northwest, bordering seven
countries. In a book first published in 1950, the great
specialist on China and Central Asia, Owen Lattimore,
called it the "pivot of Asia" for its position in Asia's
ethnic, economic and strategic affairs. In area, it is
China's largest province-level unit and has a population
of nearly 20 million.
Xinjiang is multiethnic.
With 45.2%, according to the 2000 census, the most
populous ethnic group is the Uighurs, a Turkic and
Muslim people, but immigration by the Han Chinese has
meant that they are now not that far behind the Uighurs
themselves (40.6%, 2000 census). Other than the Mongols,
descended from the people who once controlled Xinjiang,
the great majority of the ethnic minorities there are
Muslims.
Separatist movements and feelings have
long been widespread, most notably among the Uighurs.
Most recently, a small-scale uprising in 1990 sparked
renewed anti-Chinese hostility that persists to this
day. The 1990s saw a series of riots and disturbances,
most notably in February 1997. All of them were
suppressed by the Chinese authorities, who are
determined to keep Xinjiang within China and quell any
separatism. Some of these separatist incidents can be
described as terrorist in the sense of targeting
civilians.
Chinese reports suggest that the
number of separatist and terrorist incidents has
declined in the first few years of the 21st century by
comparison with the 1990s. In January 2002 the Chinese
authorities issued a document detailing incidents that
had occurred between 1990 and 2001, claiming that Uighur
separatists had been responsible for more than 200
terrorist incidents, but only one of the 162 deaths
caused was in 2001. Yet China has taken advantage of the
September 11 attacks to step up its crackdown on Uighur
separatism. In December 2003, Chinese authorities issued
a list of organizations they regarded as terrorist and
11 specific people they regarded as terrorist leaders,
not only in China but also overseas.
The reality
is that there are indeed terrorists among those Uighurs
who wish to split from China and set up an independent
East Turkestan Republic. There are also separatists who
oppose violence of all kinds and could not be regarded
as terrorists. There are Islamic separatists, and
secular nationalists, as well as people with a range of
other positions. Most Uighurs would like to keep out of
such arguments and get on with a peaceful life.
One of the factors that is exacerbating the
situation even further is narcotics and the spread of
HIV/AIDS. The fact is that, of all China's provinces,
Xinjiang is now among the most severely affected with
HIV/AIDS, and one of the reasons for this is the
increase in drug addiction and shared needles. The
government is blaming Uighurs disproportionately for
this phenomenon, and linking drug addiction and HIV/AIDS
with cross-border narcotics smuggling. This gives
authorities the excuse they want to brand Islam and the
Uighurs as drug smugglers, addicts and spreaders of
HIV/AIDS - and this exacerbates and worsens the
situation for the Uighurs.
Given the reduction
in the incidence of terrorism, HIV/AIDS is probably a
bigger threat to Xinjiang's future than either
separatism or terrorism. To be fair, the Chinese
government seems at last to be waking up to the
destructive potential of AIDS in Xinjiang and elsewhere.
But what the joint military exercises do is keep the
focus on terrorism and separatism based on Islamic
extremism. This priority may be both unnecessary and
contrary to the best interests of the Central Asian
region.
International relations in Central
Asia In April 1996, the presidents of China,
Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan met in
Shanghai - the so-called "Shanghai Five" - to begin a
series of annual meetings. In June 2001, they were
joined by the president of Uzbekistan and formed the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These six
presidents have continued to meet annually, most
recently in June 2004 in the Uzbekistan capital
Tashkent. One of the aims of the Shanghai Five and then
the SCO was to counter terrorism, Islamic extremism and
separatism, which all six countries are determined to
stamp out.
The SCO also aims to expand economic
and other relations among its member countries. One of
China's top current projects is an oil pipeline of
nearly 1,000 kilometers, expected to be completed next
year. It will transfer oil from the Caspian Sea through
Kazakhstan and into China.
Just before the June
2004 SCO meeting, Chinese President Hu Jintao held
formal meetings with Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov.
Hu and Karimov signed an agreement to cooperate in
combating terrorism, separatism and extremism, including
against the Uighur separatists and terrorists in
Xinjiang.
Uzbekistan is significant in the
present context. There are several factors here. First,
Karimov is a leader who has come under heavy criticism
in the West for his willingness to commit human-rights
abuses and to cast his net excessively wide in his zeal
to stamp out terrorism. Second, the Uzbeks are very
close culturally to the Uighurs, and there is a
significant Uighur diaspora in Uzbekistan. Finally,
Uzbekistan has lately been the site of several suicide
bombing attacks, including those at the end of July,
when suicide bombers in Tashkent struck the American and
Israeli embassies, killing at least two Uzbeks.
China has also expanded its influence
substantially in Kyrgyzstan. Late in 2002, China and
Kyrgyzstan carried out joint military exercises along
the Chinese-Kyrgyz border. The next year a political
crisis erupted in Kyrgyzstan over an unpopular decision
to cede some border territory formerly in Kyrgyzstan to
China.
All SCO member countries also contributed
to a joint anti-terrorist exercise in August 2003. SCO
Secretary-General Zhang Deguang claimed at the end of
July 2004 that this exercise had been "the SCO's most
important collaboration to date, showing how a
multinational cross-border force could be mobilized
against attacks".
The friendship China has
developed diplomatically with the countries of Central
Asia has one other implication. In order to conciliate
China and to further their own interests, the
governments of Central Asian countries such as
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have sent back to China those
Uighurs trying to flee Xinjiang as refugees. In a report
from Ankara on July 7, 2004, Kahriman Gojamberdi,
representative of the German-based World Uighur
Congress, claimed that Uighurs who were fleeing the
crackdown in Xinjiang itself were still being sent back
secretly from Kazakhstan.
China-Pakistan-India China and
Pakistan have been on good terms for a long time. By
contrast, India and Pakistan are traditional enemies,
while China has had very unstable relations with India.
Currently, there is a thawing of relations between India
on the one hand and Pakistan and China on the other,
while China's relations with Pakistan continue to
improve.
Pakistan has played a crucial role in
the war against terrorism. It is a strongly Islamic
country, and President General Pervez Musharraf is a
strong Muslim. Moreover, it has a border with
Afghanistan, and many even believe that al-Qaeda leader
Osama bin Laden is actually in Pakistan. Islamic
radicalism has a good deal of support in the border
region.
Musharraf declared himself a supporter
of the United States-led war against terrorism from the
start. However, his stand has earned him a good deal of
hostility at home, including assassination attempts,
because many Pakistanis believe he should be giving
support to his Muslim brothers, not to the American
infidels, let alone Chinese communists.
Musharraf has become an increasingly strong
opponent of terrorism. His army has carried out major
operations designed to eliminate terrorism from the
border regions. One in March 2004, which took place in
South Wazaristan near the border with Afghanistan,
succeeded in capturing or killing quite a few al-Qaeda
militants. On the other hand, the army had hoped to
capture bin Laden, which it failed to do.
As for
China, Pakistan has shown itself to be very helpful
against separatism and terrorism in Xinjiang. The body
the Chinese have described as the most important
separatist organization in Xinjiang is the East
Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). In October 2003 the
Pakistan military killed ETIM leader Hasan Mahsum in an
army operation. Despite his death, China still included
him in its list of terrorists published in December
2003.
This month's joint military Pakistan-China
military exercise is another demonstration of a genuine
and strengthening friendship between China and Pakistan,
and especially a genuine wish for both to cooperate
against terrorism. Clearly, the Pakistan government
accepts China's desire to stamp out separatism in
Xinjiang, even though the Uighurs are fellow Muslims,
and it agrees with China's protestations that these
separatists are terrorists. If the Pakistanis are in
doubt about this, they are not letting it get in the way
of military cooperation with China.
Sino-Western relations Among the
Western countries, the situation in Xinjiang involves
mainly the United States. The United States wants good
relations with Pakistan and is pleased at the recent
attempts the Pakistan authorities have been making to
step up their fight against terrorism.
The
United States has been closely involved in the emerging
strategic balance of power in Central Asia. Since
September 11, it has established military bases in
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for the first
time. Traditionally, the region has been in the Russian
sphere of influence. When the Soviet Union collapsed at
the end of 1991, Chinese influence began to expand, both
economically and strategically. But with the war against
terrorism that followed September 11, the United States
also became involved in the region militarily. This
expansion of American influence is deeply worrying both
to Russia and China, which see their own clout under
threat.
The United States has viewed the
developing situation in Xinjiang with mixed feelings. On
the one hand, it has been deeply worried by the
human-rights implications of what has developed and has
made its feelings known on many occasions. On the other
hand, since September 11 it has been very keen for
China's support in its own war against terrorism.
In August 2002, the United States recognized
ETIM as a terrorist organization, followed soon by the
United Nations. China has been keen for the United
States to recognize other bodies as terrorist, but
Washington has not been prepared to go further. On the
contrary, since August 2002 the United States seems to
have been moving in the opposite direction. For example,
in December 2002, Lorne Craner, US assistant secretary
of state for human rights, gave a speech at the
University of Xinjiang in Urumqi, arguing that the
struggle against terrorism should never be allowed to
compromise human rights, implying that this was
precisely what China was doing.
Actually,
human-rights activists believe that the war against
terrorism is compromising human rights in most
countries, including the United States. But human-rights
activists also think that China's behavior in Xinjiang
is a particularly obvious and serious case of
human-rights abuses made worse by the war against
terrorism. Bodies such as Amnesty International have
been very critical of China's human-rights abuses in
general, but singled out Beijing's activities in
Xinjiang for special condemnation.
Two events in
mid-2004 showed the administration of US President
George W Bush was moving against the Chinese government
in policy on Xinjiang and the Uighurs. In April, the
National Endowment for Democracy, which is funded by the
American government, gave US$75,000 to the Uyghur
American Association, a body that is total anathema to
the Chinese government because it advocates an
independent Uighur state. This was the first time the
National Endowment has given a grant to a Uighur exile
group.
In May the US Department of State
announced that it was discussing with Chinese
counterparts a request that some Uighur prisoners in
Guantanamo Bay should be repatriated to Xinjiang.
However, the Americans later rejected the request on the
grounds that the Uighurs would likely suffer persecution
at home from Chinese authorities, even being tortured or
killed. In the delicate balance between promoting human
rights and conciliating China in the interests of the
overall war against terrorism, both actions seemed to
favor human rights. Not surprisingly, the Chinese
authorities were furious, considering the grant an act
of interference in their domestic affairs.
Other
than the United States, the Western country most
involved in the Xinjiang issue is Germany. This is
because there is a very significant Uighur diaspora
there and because it is home to several Uighur diaspora
bodies the Chinese consider terrorist. The best known of
them is the World Uyghur Youth Congress, based in
Munich. This was one of the bodies China had tagged as
terrorist in December 2003.
In April, Munich
hosted another Uighur congress to organize Uighurs from
around the world to promote Uighur unity and the Uighur
cause in general. While most participants wanted a fully
independent Uighur nation-state, others were prepared to
settle for a high degree of autonomy within China that
would be less than full independence.
The
Chinese did everything they could to get the meeting
cancelled, arguing that its aim was separatist and
terrorist. The German authorities did comply with the
Chinese to some extent; for example, they were quite
careful about the people to whom they issued visas and
they kept an eye on what was happening. But they did not
force the cancellation of the meeting, which went ahead
as planned.
The congress saw the formation of a
united World Uyghur Congress. This was in itself an
achievement, given that Uighur bodies have been
notoriously fractured, with some advocating violence,
others rejecting it as counterproductive and wrong, even
terrorist. The man the congress elected as its head is
Erkin Alptekin, who has been involved in Uighur diaspora
affairs for many years. The policy he advocates is
dialogue with Beijing and autonomy rather than full
independence and non-violence. Certainly he rejects
totally any suggestion that he is a terrorist.
Conclusion The Pakistan-China joint
military exercises in Xinjiang show that China is
continuing to expand its relations with its neighbors,
in large part for the purpose of suppressing any hint of
Uighur separatism or terrorism. These states may share
Islam with the terrorists, but they certainly do not
share any wish to destabilize the situation in Central
Asia, including Xinjiang. They will be quite prepared to
tolerate human rights abuses against fellow Muslims if
that's what their interests appear to require. China is
taking advantage of this dilemma for its own purposes.
The military maneuvers are also part of an
unnecessary demonstration of military muscle against
Uighur separatism.
This newly founded united
World Uyghur Congress may be more effective than earlier
such bodies, but most likely will not make more than a
small dent in Beijing's approach. As it acknowledges, it
depends more or less totally on the United States, which
is unlikely to offer much support of the kind that
really matters. Certainly, the World Uyghur Congress
will get no military support from the United States,
which is much more interested in maintaining China's
support for its war against terrorism. It seems to me
most unlikely that Uighur separatism, or even genuine
autonomy, has any real chance of success in the
foreseeable future.
Colin Mackerras is
foundation professor in the Department of International
Business and Asian Studies at Griffith University,
Queensland, Australia. He has visited Xinjiang four
times, most recently in October-November 2003. He has
written extensively on ethnic issues in China, including
Xinjiang. His most recent authored book is China's
Ethnic Minorities and Globalization, and most recent
edited book is Ethnicity in Asia. He can be
reached at c.mackerras@griffith.edu.au.
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