The Chinese puzzle: Jiang's
retirement By Zhu Zhan
HONG
KONG - When the curtain rose on the decisive party
plenum of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Thursday,
startling reports surfaced in Beijing's political
circles that the current commander-in-chief and former
president Jiang Zemin would propose his resignation as
military leader. While the reports have not been
confirmed, many political observers see the possible
resignation as Jiang's tactic to dispel the mounting
pressure on him to yield power. He might step down but
still be China's "Phantom Regent".
It is
believed that such a decision could please some party
chieftains who are unhappy to see Jiang as the supreme
military leader for a prolonged period; on the other
hand, a decision to step down would strengthen Jiang's
hand and bargaining position as he seeks to install his
confidants and proteges in the administration. As the
positions of some military heavyweights remain unclear,
the ball seems to be in the court of President Hu
Jintao, who is supposed to control the armed forces
concurrently - it is one of the Middle Kingdom's old
traditions that state and military leadership go hand in
hand. Jiang is chairman of the party's powerful Central
Military Commission (CMC).
Reuters and Taiwan's
United Daily News reported this week that Jiang had
proposed to hand in his notice of resignation, tallying
with an earlier dispatch from the New York Times. In
addition, members of the CMC reportedly are to be
increased from four to seven, with three entries from
the navy, the air force and the No 2 Artillery.
Coincidence or not, early this month Beijing
staged a high-profile celebration of the 60th
anniversary of the death of "martyred" anti-Japanese
hero Peng Xuefeng. Jiang even inscribed the name of the
book Biography of Peng Xuepeng. In fact, Peng
Xuefeng's son, Peng Xiaofeng, is now commissar of the No
2 Artillery, a high-ranking position in Chinese military
system. He and Liu Yazhong, vice commissar of the air
force, are both considered under the patronage of Jiang.
Obviously, Jiang has been actively preparing to extend
his authority within the military, if he is forced out
of power some day.
One informed source, speaking
on condition of anonymity, told Asia Times Online that
Jiang, now 78, had promised in 2002 to steer the CMC for
only two years. Now, time is up. Party veterans who had
been edged out of the top echelon by Jiang, including
former chairman of National People's Congress Qiao Shi
and former chairman of Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference Li Ruihuan, have long been
murmuring their discontent about the "Phantom Regent"
and cannot wait to see him out. During the CCP's massive
commemorations for the centennial anniversary of the
birth of late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, Deng's
virtue of early retirement from the throne and his
hands-off manner had been hyped by the state-run media.
Political commentators aver that all these developments
and displays put considerable pressure on Jiang Zemin.
Jiang's proposed retirement could also be
interpreted as his scheme of "one step backward and two
steps forward". In return for his resignation, he can
still project his influence by installing confidants in
the expanded Central Military Commission, negotiate for
his appointment of a vice chairman in the CMC, and even
reserve the right to name Hu Jintao's successor as CMC
chairman. This is a common political trade-off practice
in Chinese political arena.
At the moment, most
military heavyweights have yet to declare their stance
on the matter. However, some pro-Jiang generals rushed
to pledge support for their boss. Guo Boxiong, Jiang's
deputy in the CMC, stressed that the armed forces should
follow Jiang's orders under any circumstance. Another
CMC member, Xu Caihou, reiterated on a few occasions the
significance of the so-called "Three Represents" theory
developed by Jiang that has already been added to
China's constitution. The theory reads "The party must
always represent the requirements of the development of
China's advanced productive forces, the orientation of
the development of China's advanced culture, and the
fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of
the people in China".
Predictably, China's state
president and CCP chairman Hu Jintao might be quite
cautious in responding to Jiang's proposal. In
retrospect, former party chief Hu Yaobang was kicked out
of Zhongnanhai (the compound of China's leaders) by Deng
Xiaoping, partly because of his remarks endorsing Deng's
pledges to withdraw completely from the political arena.
It is reported that President Hu declined Jiang's
resignation two years ago, so how he will react this
time around remains a focus of the world's attention.
It is generally believed that it will take some
time for Hu to operate against the backdrop of Jiang's
legacies and popularity in the military. As recently as
June, Jiang promoted 15 military officers to full
general - mostly from the pro-Jiang camp, including his
top bodyguard You Xigui, who now is director of the
Central Guard Bureau. In China, an officer in You's
position is seldom promoted to such a military rank, and
most observers say that Jiang is trying to maximize his
power in the armed forces. Moreover, his "Three
Represents" theory, now enshrined in the Chinese
constitution, can play a part in his efforts to broaden
his influence.
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