HONG
KONG - Not eager to leave office,
China's powerful commander-in-chief Jiang Zemin only
tendered his resignation as chairman of the
Central Military Commission two weeks before the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) plenum convened last week. His
evident reluctance indicates that the man known as the "phantom regent" clung
to power until the last minute. China watchers now are
trying to figure out what changed his mind and motivated
him to pass the torch to his rival, moderate reformist
Communist Party chief and state President Hu Jintao.
After months of speculation and reports of
a fierce power struggle between Jiang and Hu,
the departure of Jiang, 78, and his solid praise of
Hu as his successor represented a kind of quiet
political earthquake. Analysts speculate about what
bargains were struck and what it took to persuade Jiang
to go, such as the placement of his colleagues and
proteges in positions of power.
Jiang did
not tender his resignation to the CCP Central
Politburo until September 1, only two weeks before the
momentous plenum. By comparison, two months before the
fifth plenary session of the CCP National Congress on
November 9, 1989, supreme Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping
had submitted his resignation from the
Chinese Military Commission (CMC) chairmanship well in advance
in order to demonstrate his sincerity. If Jiang had
learned this art of political timing, the rampant rumors that
he had locked himself into a power struggle with Hu
would have been dispelled, or at least reduced.
In the run-up to the party convention, the
official Chinese media, the party mouthpieces, released
many stories and reports that seemed designed to wean
Jiang from what some observers called his power
addiction, and to coax him into renouncing the
influential CMC chairmanship at the convention.
For instance, state-run China
Central Television (CCTV) used the occasion of Deng
Xiaoping's birth centennial to interview his eldest daughter
Deng Lin on July 28. She recalled that her father did
not intervene but put trust in the succeeding
administration of younger leaders after his retirement. For another,
a reputed academic at the CCP Central Party School,
where party cadres are further educated and groomed,
published an article on July 20 saying that the resistance
to reform comes from "former reformists" and "only
the brave win the infighting" - a reference to Jiang.
Again, China Youth Daily, a popular newspaper among young
people, disclosed that Song Zuying, a nationally famous
singer much praised by Jiang Zemin, reaped an
astronomical reward after a show in a poverty-stricken
city. All these reports are said to have embarrassed
Jiang, the military strongman.
At
that time, if Jiang had intended to step down,
his close colleagues and confidants would have had some
clue. However, after the New York Times reported early this
month that "Jiang Zemin, China's military chief and senior
leader, has told Communist Party officials that he plans
to resign", Jiang's nephew, Tai Zhan, vigorously
and publicly denied the report. Besides, some senior
Chinese officials had disclosed that Jiang's retirement was
not on the agenda for the fourth plenum of CCP
National Congress. Up until the plenum convened last Friday,
some Hong Kong-based media with close connections with
Jiang were saying the same thing - no retirement.
For sure, the sudden step-down of the regent is
not a result of perfect secrecy work.
Over the
past few months, there was not a single sign that
pointed to the departure of the commander-in-chief. On
July 26, Jiang met with serviceman representatives and
made a talk on "truth" at the seminar on the "Three
Represents" theory, attributed to Jiang and now
enshrined in China's constitution.
On September 2, Jiang held a
high-profile meeting with Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
Two days later, he presented an inscription in
his calligraphy to the military logistics headquarters
in Tibet. On September 13, CMC vice chairman Guo Boxiong, on
an inspection tour in northwestern China, emphasized that
"the troops must take orders from the central party caucus,
the CMC and chairman Jiang at any time and any
case", the PLA Daily reported. Then, on September
16, Jiang promulgated the revised Ordinance of
Environmental Protection of the People's Liberation
Army, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Some
commentators believe that the chief commander would
remain in the line of duty until the last minute, while
some skeptics sought hidden signals of possible
departure behind these actions.
In
August, Oriental Outlook, a journal sponsored by Xinhua
News Agency, reported that Deng Xiaoping after
retirement helped to establish the prestige and authority of
his own successor, Jiang Zemin. "We must rally closely
to the central party caucus centering on Jiang Zemin,"
Deng said in 1994. In contrast, Jiang has not spoken of
his successor or political heir ever since Hu Jintao
entered the office of the CCP secretary general and the
Chinese president. Nor has Jiang urged the PLA troops to
obey Hu. When he delivered a congratulatory oration - for
the last time as the Chinese president - on New Year's
Day in 2003, Jiang only said in a general way that "all
Chinese people are closely rallying to the central party
caucus centering on CCP secretary general Hu Jintao" -
not a powerful endorsement. In the same month, the
magazine again published a picture showing late
paramount leader Deng Xiaoping shaking hands with Hu,
with Jiang being sidelined next to Deng.
Finally, however, as the plenum closed, the
general public was pleasantly surprised when Jiang not
only recommended Hu as the next CMC chairman, but also
extolled Hu's qualifications in his resignation letter.
He had long desired to "retire completely" from the
party's top hierarchy, Jiang said, and he had proposed
to quit the CCP Central Committee even before the 16th
CCP National Congress on October 8, 2002. The central
caucus, however, decided that he must remain as chairman
of the military commission, in view of the volatile
international situation and the arduous tasks of
national defense and military buildup and modernization,
Jiang's letter said.
Nevertheless, analysts say,
the global political climate is not any milder, nor is
the daunting task of national defense completed, or
nearing completion. So it is likely that there may be
some as yet unknown reasons behind Jiang's stepping
down.
Some overseas media cited Jiang
Zemin's family as saying that he retired because of
"poor health". But for a long time, Jiang had been
seeking acknowledgement of his robust health in a bid
to maintain his influence. On July 8, he greeted
US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice by
saying, "You look younger," Perhaps he was expecting
something like "So do you" from Rice, who did not return
the compliment. When he met British Prime Minister Tony
Blair in July, Jiang said: "They say I'm still young."
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