HK lawmakers face reprise of divisive
issues By Gary LaMoshi
HONG
KONG - Hong Kong's Legislative Council (LegCo) term
beginning Friday should be smooth sailing for Chief
Executive Tung Chee-hwa and his sponsors in Beijing. The
September 12 election gave pro-government parties a
comfortable majority. Despite winning 60% of the popular
vote, the opposition pro-democracy camp appears
dispirited and divided.
But the key items on
LegCo's agenda are the same ones that sent hundreds of
thousands of anti-government demonstrators into the
streets over the past 15 months. The new legislative
lineup doesn't make those issues any less contentious,
and a variety of factors make LegCo politics
increasingly complicated. (LegCo's formal "term" begins
this Friday, but the business session opens the
following Wednesday, October 6. The council, partly
elected and partly appointed, does not wield much power,
but it is a forum for the airing of opinions on the
future of Hong Kong.)
Take Article 23, the
draconian national-security bill to prevent subversion,
secession and sedition. The bill was introduced in 2003
at Beijing's insistence and withdrawn by Tung amid the
echoes of a million feet along Queen's Road - proof that
even with a solid LegCo majority, the government cannot
push through bills the public abhors. But just days
after this year's LegCo election, Liberal Party chairman
James Tien put Article 23 back on the table.
Tien gets Tung lashing Tien said it
was time to reintroduce this bill dear to the big
motherland, and he got Beijing's leading LegCo ally, the
Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong
(DAB), to agree. Within 24 hours, Tung scurried out for
a rare public appearance to declare that Article 23 was
not a priority, and he had "no plans" to reintroduce the
legislation.
Everyone knows, though, that Tung's
plans will change with a nudge from Beijing. "Beijing's
view is that the Article 23 law still needs to be dealt
with and a climate of opinion has to be developed for it
to be brought back," said former legislator Christine
Loh, who now heads local think-tank Civic Exchange. "The
pro-democracy camp needs to get ready for this debate
and to take the lead on specific issues and to call for
wide and deep consultation." The debate will almost
surely come before Tung's term ends in 2007, sparing his
successor the political debit from this divisive issue.
But until they think the time is right, Beijing and Tung
don't want to mention Article 23. For political reasons,
Tien and DAB wanted it on the agenda now.
DAB
increasingly behaves like a Western political party and
has become more astute about seeking popular support, a
glaring weakness for Tung and his inner circle.
Political tea leaves signal it's better to get the
unpopular Article 23 issue finished long before the next
LegCo election in 2008. With the economy rebounding and
government parties turning in better-than-expected
results in LegCo elections three weeks ago, DAB likely
thought taking up Article 23 now would minimize
long-term damage to pro-government forces. Expect DAB to
clash with the government over matters of political
style, often despite their agreement on substance.
Election central Tien's motives are
more complex. His high-profile about-face on Article 23
after the July 2003 protest - Tien also resigned from
Tung's Executive Council - undermined the government's
legislative majority and broke its will to push ahead
with the bill. Endorsing Article 23 now was a blatant
attempt to get back in the good graces of Tung and
especially Beijing, eyeing the 2007 race for chief
executive. Demonstrating loyalty by anticipating
Beijing's desires is a staple among pro-government
politicians. The big motherland welcomed these gestures,
which often laid down positions Beijing didn't dare
articulate, when it was less directly involved in Hong
Kong affairs. Now, driven by Tung's incompetence and
unpopularity, Beijing knows and says what it wants and
doesn't necessarily welcome freelancing.
Despite
his misstep, Beijing will embrace Tien. His Liberal
Party remains the local business community's favorite.
Tien's success at winning a seat by popular vote in his
first try (after years in LegCo representing the Hong
Kong General Chamber of Commerce's functional
constituency) indicates some degree of political skill
and popularity. Those are desired qualities in the next
chief executive, since Tung's zeros on both scores have
served him and Beijing poorly.
Tien is not the
only pro-government legislator with ambitions for chief
executive, and the lawmakers' jockeying may create
divisions and complications. The pro-democracy camp has
its own divisions, with the Democratic Party holding
only nine of the bloc's 25 seats and absorbing blame for
faulty election strategies that lost seats.
Divisions within the camps, however, pale
compared with the differences between them on election
of the chief executive in 2007 and LegCo in 2008, issues
known as constitutional reform in local shorthand.
Beijing has ruled out universal-suffrage elections for
those votes, a decision its allies will support. The
pro-democracy camp has pledged to fight for universal
suffrage.
Democracy within
limits Acknowledging this year's July 1 marches
in favor of expanded democracy, the pro-government
parties' election platforms suggested reforms within
Beijing's parameters. For example, DAB proposes widening
the number of electors choosing the chief executive -
400 in 1997 and 800 in 2002 - to 1,600 in a city of more
than 6 million. Their LegCo plan involves expanding the
number of functional constituency seats elected by
various business and professional groups, seats that now
provide the government's LegCo majority.
Before
the pro-government camp has to explain how adding
functional seats - not those elected by universal
suffrage - expands democracy, a special government panel
will issue recommendations toeing Beijing's line on
constitutional reform. The recommendations will form the
basis of a government bill that will need LegCo
approval.
A leading Democratic Party strategist
says advocates of universal suffrage will fight a
two-front battle. Pro-democracy legislators will vote
against any reforms that fall short of one-person,
one-vote. They'll also pursue dialogue with Beijing that
could lead to a negotiated compromise.
Fortunately, Beijing is in the mood to talk with
at least some democrats. It has invited 10 LegCo
democrats to National Day celebrations Thursday night,
excluding 15 others, including outspoken Frontier party
founder Emily Lau, Democratic Party chairman Yeung Sam
and party elder statesman Martin Lee. This selective
outreach fits reports from Beijing that officials are
wooing moderate democrats, hoping to splinter the bloc.
Pro-democracy leaders scoff at that notion.
"Factionalism already existed," Democratic Party
executive committee member Chan King-ming insisted,
citing disagreements on livelihood and social-welfare
matters. Those issues, and broader economic policy amid
signs of a sustainable recovery, won't get legislators'
blood flowing in this session. But Article 23 and
constitutional reform, amid jockeying to succeed Tung as
chief executive, could leave some blood on the LegCo
chamber floor.
Gary LaMoshi, a
longtime editor of investor-rights advocate eRaider.com,
has also contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He has
worked as a broadcast producer and as a print writer and
editor in the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong
Kong in 1995 and now splits his time between there and
Indonesia.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
