HONG HONG
- The following article was sent to Asia Times Online's
Chinese-language Hong Kong website, excerpted and
translated. The author is believed to be a mainland
official whose views are widely read:
Remarkable
vicissitudes have occurred to global politics ever since
the curtain came down on the Cold War between the United
States and the Soviet Union, and their allies. In
Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) under the
leadership of independence-minded Chen Shui-bian toppled
the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT), the autocratic party,
in the presidential election four years ago, while
politicians seeking a Taiwan split from China are
growing in number. On one hand, Taipei is pushing for
indigenization and independence; on the other, the
prominent hawks in Beijing are calling for the use of
military force to unite island and mainland. Hence, the
first imperative for Beijing is to devise innovative
policies that help to contain and diminish the volatile
status quo of the Taiwan Strait and promote the unity of
the country.
"The highest form of generalship is to
thwart the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent the
junction [the actual clash] of the enemy's forces; the
next in order is to attack the enemy's army in the field;
and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities,"
said Sun Tzi, an ancient and world-renowned
Chinese military strategist who wrote the Art of
War (500 BC). Consequently, if ancient, tested and
still relevant wisdom is any guide, then the use of
force is the least-preferable option, and peaceful
unification is in the interests of the whole Chinese
nation.
Today, the "one China" principle has
become a bone of contention between the two sides of the
strait. The incumbent leaders of Taiwan disavow that the
1992 Hong Kong meeting between the Straits Exchange
Foundation representing the Taiwanese government and the
Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits on
Beijing's behalf built an oral consensus: both sides
adhere to the "one China" principle.
To clarify
the cross-strait status quo, one needs to flip through
history to the very beginning, when Taiwan was
segregated from the mainland. More than 50 years ago,
the Chinese Civil War (1945-1949) between the governing
KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) broke out
again in the wake of China's victory over the Japanese
invasion (1937-1945). As a result, the CCP prevailed and
the KMT administration retreated to the island of
Taiwan. In the years that followed, the KMT failed in
all its comeback attempts, while the CCP lost a military
operation crossing the straits. When the Korean Civil
War started in June of 1950, North Korea reached out to
Beijing for help and the US sent its 7th Fleet to defend
Taiwan from potential attack by the mainland.
In
conclusion, China is a split country; the mainland and
Taiwan are in the midst of a cease fire, but without any
truce agreement. Over the years, Beijing has given a
more welcome interpretation to its "one China"
principle: "There is only one China in the world; both
the mainland and Taiwan belong to China."
The
status of Taiwan Albeit under alien dominion on
and off for several centuries, Taiwan is an undisputable
part of China and is hitherto ruled by the alleged
"Republic of China". What should be pronounced to the
world, to the Taiwanese compatriots in particular, is
the legal status of Taiwan.
The Potsdam Proclamation,
which was signed on July 26, 1945, by
China, the United States and the United Kingdom,
delimited the Japanese territory and ordered Japan to
return the occupied Taiwan Island to China. The
proclamation took effect after Japan surrendered in
August 1945, the end of World War II.
But
separatists now compose the mainstay of the Taiwanese
government. Lee Tung-hui, former president of Taiwan,
made a nebulous allegation of "two states in one nation"
to suggest that China and Taiwan were two different
countries. President Chen Shui-bian, Lee's successor,
declared "one country on each side", meanwhile pledging
to amend the constitution and rename Taiwan. Then what
is the status of the so-called "Republic of China"?
As a matter of fact, there are two separate
political entities in the split China: the People's
Republic of China (PRC) based on the mainland vs the
Republic of China (ROC) based in Taiwan. So far, neither
has succeeded in unifying the country, and both are
holding back fire in an unsigned armistice. But only one
China is recognized by the international community and
the United Nations (UN).
Before 1971, the PRC
government had diplomatic relationships only with Warsaw
Treaty Organizations (1955-1991), a bloc of communist
countries headed by the Soviet Union in order to
confront the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
led by the United States, while the ROC administration
was more widely regarded at the time as acting on behalf
of the whole China.
Yet on October 25, 1971, the
UN General Assembly passed Resolution 2758, replacing
the UN China held by the ROC with that of the PRC. In
February of 1972, US president Richard Nixon ventured a
landmark visit to Beijing, resulting in signature of the
Sino-US Joint Communique (also known as Shanghai
Communique), which states that Taiwan is part of China.
Since then, many other countries have followed the US in
recognizing the PRC government and severing diplomatic
relations with the ROC of Taiwan.
In short, the
PRC government based in Beijing now is the only legal
government on behalf of the whole of China, while the
ROC based in Taipei theoretically is an illegal
political entity. In the past, Beijing maintained that
Taiwan was a province of China, but even the Taiwanese
majority disagreed with such sayings. So it would be
more intelligent and welcomed to recognize the status of
Taiwan as an illegal government or political entity
rather than the alleged "renegade province".
To unify China in 200 years Mao
Zedong, the late supreme leader of the CCP, predicted
that it might take a century to unify the country. Since
the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, more
than 50 years has elapsed, but the possibility of
unification before the centennial founding anniversary
still exists. Even if we could not make it then, we will
fight for another hundred years. The integrity of China
concerns the renaissance and the ultimate interests of
the Chinese nation, the strategy of peaceful emergence,
the sentiments and the emotions of all Chinese people.
Peace and development is the dual theme of the
world today. The coming two decades is expected to be a
rare opportunity for strategic development, during which
Beijing should try to settle the Taiwan issue
peacefully, rebuild mutual trust and relieve
confrontation. As a permanent member of the UN Security
Council, China has witnessed an upward momentum in both
overall national strength and its importance for the
world. If the emerging country, however, bogs down in a
cross-strait war or a head-on confrontation against the
US, the only superpower on earth, the amazing economic
miracle and even the membership of Security Council will
be destroyed overnight.
In the 21st century when
peace plays the global rhythm and the world economy
undergoes globalization or regional cooperation, all
strife is supposed to be resolved peacefully. Seeing
that both the mainland and Taiwan have created prominent
economic miracles and civilization achievements, the two
peoples have realized the necessity to settle the Taiwan
issue nonviolently.
To unify China peacefully is
a mission possible. As set out in its ambitious
blueprint, the mainland will hopefully have accomplished
modernization by the year 2050, with economic and
military might equivalent to those of an average
developed country, if it maintains the present
progressive stride. In case that Taiwan still resists
peaceful unification at that time, we can wait for
another hundred years to demonstrate our confidence and
sincerity.
War impractical At present,
the relations between the mainland and Taiwan are at
daggers drawn, as Beijing has repeatedly highlighted
that a cross-strait war will be started on the day when
Taiwan declares independence. However, the war, if there
has to be one, will not be possible in the year 2006 or
2008, considering the existing strength of the People's
Liberation Army (PLA), the armed forces of the PRC.
Over the past two decades, the PRC has been so
focused on economic construction that military
development was left far behind, probably until 1996
when the CCP central caucus commanded preparation for a
potential war against Taiwan and then started developing
weaponry and tactics. As yet, Beijing has not altered
its policy that economic development takes top priority
over that of the armed forces. As is analyzed by the US
Department of Defense and Jane's Intelligence Review, a
renowned provider of intelligence and military
information, the PLA is limited in airlift capacity and
almost equal to Taiwan in air force and naval might,
though it boasts the advantage of missiles and nuclear
weapons. At a conservative estimate, it will take at
least 20 years from now for the mainland to prepare for
war.
In fact, it is a rather risky idea to wage
a lightning war and take Taiwan by storm. If the
mainland declared war against Taiwan under present
conditions, the possible scenarios would be as follows:
First, the war would not be unexpected, since the
PLA would need a long period of preparation to
manufacture and deploy munitions and other supplies. Due
to the shortage of landing battleships and airlift
capacity, the PLA would have to requisition a good many
commercial and fishing vessels, even civil aircraft,
which would require organizing and training of staff
later. Sensible maneuvers like those could not escape
notice by modern reconnaissance techniques. When all
preparation was completed, the war would not be a
lightning one as expected, and with that lead time the
United States would have dispatched its aircraft carrier
battle group to defend the Taiwan Island.
Second, the war, if expected, might last longer than
scheduled. If the PLA began with a missile raid, Taiwan
would have evacuated its air forces and deployed its
warships to cruise about in the nearby waters
beforehand. This way, an estimated 60% of Taiwan's main
forces would survive the first attack. A good
exemplification is that Yugoslavia successfully
protected its affected forces from the US air raids in
1999, during which the missiles launched in a single day
outnumbered the total number of missiles that the
mainland now directs along its eastern coastline toward
Taiwan. If so, the PLA would have difficulties in
gaining air and sea superiority, then the landing
campaign would be tough too.
Third, missile bombing would be logically followed
by assaults of the air force and navy, which hardly have
any upper hand over those of Taiwan, as assessed above
by foreign military analysts. In addition, the US would
intervene militarily at once, but would send supplies to
Taiwan's troops by air or water. In spite of vehement
warnings from Beijing, the US would accelerate the
supplies delivery. In this case, the PLA would have to
intercept the US transports and convoys, and then the US
would jump on the war wagon. Undoubtedly, the PLA is no
match to the US Army. Even Mao Zedong, the departed
military strongman, did not order an attack on the US
escort fleet in the 1958's artillery campaign against
the KMT troops garrisoned in Taiwan's Junkmen Islet,
also known as Kinsmen.
On the other hand, the
separatism-leaning leaders of Taiwan are doomed to fail
because they are risking the economic prosperity and
life on the island.
No matter what, a war will
inevitably wreak havoc with both rims of the strait,
causing massive casualties, gargantuan economic losses
and further arousing suspicion about China's policy of
peaceful emergence.
Peaceful unity will
work Peaceful unification of China is absolutely
possible: 1) In terms of legal basis, Taiwan is part of
China pursuant to the Cairo Declaration and Potsdam
Proclamation that have determined the global chart since
World War II; 2) As a matter of fact, the mainland and
Taiwan are virtually dominated by two different
independent governments in a divided China. The latter,
however, retains to date the territory and the
constitution of the ROC government that was overthrown
by the CCP during the Civil War. The world today
acknowledges that there is only one China, and the
Taiwan controversy is an internal affair of China immune
from foreign intervention;
3) From the economic
perspective, Taiwan has instituted a liberal market
economy, while the mainland is also transforming its
command or planned economic system toward
market-oriented mechanisms. Owing to the close business
ties between the two sides, Taiwan is expected to
benefit more from the burgeoning mainland economy in the
coming years;
4) In point of cultural
compatibility, the two peoples, though segregated on
opposite sides of the strait and indoctrinated with
different ideologies, share the same ancestry and
5,000-year-long Chinese history and culture.
The
fundamental contradiction between the mainland and
Taiwan lies in the distinction of their political
regimes. While the latter upholds the standards of
Western democracy and liberty, the former is solely
ruled by the CCP in consultation with minor parties. But
hopefully, the political reform ongoing in the mainland
will be keeping pace with the nation's economic progress
and moving toward democracy.
In short,
nonviolent unification has a broad and solid foundation.
The certain disputes can be settled through contact,
dialogue and negotiation.
Granting Taiwan
maximum autonomy The unity form can be flexible
and open to public discussion, as long as Taiwan admits
to be part of China's territory. Policies of "one
country, two systems", "one country, three systems", and
even a commonwealth or federal system can be placed on
the negotiation agenda. Above all, Taiwan should be
ruled by Taiwanese themselves.
At this point,
Beijing should try hard to rebuild mutual trust with
Taipei, create an appropriate atmosphere for
negotiation, shelve political differences, and
strengthen business exchanges before any breakthrough is
achieved in the course of peaceful unification.
Meanwhile, the CCP must court support from the Taiwanese
majority and patronize those who believe in unification.
The conditions that Mao Zedong once negotiated
with former KMT chairman Chang Kai-sheik can be revised,
polished and made into a more tempting bargaining
counter:
1) As long as it approves of peaceful
unification, Taiwan will be allowed to preserve its
political regime, economic system and armed forces;
2) The PLA will not march onto the island;
3) The PRC central government in Beijing will
not claim the fiscal revenue of Taipei, but only take
over the defense and diplomacy of Taiwan;
4) The
government of the PRC and that of the ROC can be merged
into one administration, while the "president of Taiwan"
will be allowed to assume any top-ranking office in the
merged administration except for the presidency.
The foregoing proposal makes allowances for the
Taiwanese antipathy to "one country, two systems", for a
good many politicians in Taiwan demand that their
government should not be considered as a provincial
administration, but be on an equal footing in future
discussions with Beijing.
The prerequisite
for renouncing force The status quo across the
Taiwan Strait will not change any time soon. Taiwan's
former national security director Ting You-chorus
provided in his memoirs an elaborate analysis concerning
the cross-strait situation: Beijing in the short term is
to prevent Taiwan from independence and in the long run
to realize unification under the policy of "one country,
two systems". In Taiwan, the pan-green coalition headed
by President Chen Shui-bian insists on the allegation of
"one country on each side" with a long-term ambition of
founding a "Republic of Taiwan"; whereas the pan-blue
alliance led by the KMT tries to sink the sovereignty
contention but maintain the status quo, leaving the
problem to time. The United States, the tower of
strength behind Taiwan, hopes to preserve the
cross-strait status quo and calls for the dispute to be
settled peacefully.
Apparently, the US focuses
on the stability of the Taiwan Strait and anticipates
reaping the maximum benefits from the separation and
confrontation between the mainland and Taiwan, because
neither the unity of China nor the independence of
Taiwan will benefit the US so much as the status quo
does now. While the pan-blue camp (the KMT and its
allies) adopts a more practical and moderate line, the
pan-greens (Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive
Party and its allies) are dogged independence pursuers
against which Beijing must take precautions. However,
the pan-green government is compelled to maintain the
status quo under massive pressure. In this case, Beijing
should take the initiative to break the ice, resume
negotiation with the Taiwan leaders, and try every means
to prevent war.
In a bid to make a friendly
overture, Beijing can consider renouncing the employment
of force on the condition that Taiwan does not declare
independence unilaterally and push for independence
virtually, or that the peaceful status quo must remain.
Before the right time arrives for nonviolent
unification, Beijing should be more foresighted and more
lenient. It is feasible to conditionally abandon the use
of force, for the pan-greens' eager desire for
independence can be interpreted as despair of
unification and fear of the mainland's growing national
power.
The military strategies to hold Taiwan
back In the unpredictably long period before the
unity of China, the mainland should grant top priority
to economic progress over military construction,
meanwhile concentrating on developing effective,
strategic, sophisticated and even lethal weapons as a
deterrent to Taiwan's separatism. On the other hand, the
arms race against Taiwan and any other country must be
averted.
The guideline for military construction
aforementioned is based on the long-term perspective
that is to develop China into a superpower that upholds
world peace and co-development. But in the near future,
China should maintain the cross-strait peace and
stability, and expedite overall development in the
coming 20 years. In the more distant future, China
should aspire to catch up with the developed countries,
accomplish unification and the renaissance of the
nation.
As the world becomes worried or scared
of the mainland's military strength that upgrades in
pace with its rocketing economy, Beijing should make
more publicity of the peaceful emergence policy, the
focus on defense and minimum deterrence, so as to create
a stable international environment for further
development. Once the mainland gains a tremendous
advantage over Taiwan in terms of economic and military
strength, it will be more likely to achieve peaceful
unification via negotiation.
It can be presumed
that Taiwan, to seek formal independence or separation
from China, must undertake several major steps such as
rewriting the constitution, re-mapping territory,
renaming the state and obtaining international
recognition. Accordingly, the mainland must take
effective measures to defeat the attempts listed above.
If it comes to that point of nearing formal
independence, Beijing can instigate appropriate and
selected military conflicts, rather than wage a war, to
hold back the island from independence.
The
following are some recommended strategies:
First, to bomb Taiwan's Junkmen Islet with cannons.
This would revisit the artillery warfare back in 1958
when the KMT government withdrew to Taiwan and attempted
to stage a comeback to the mainland via Junkmen, and the
late supreme CCP leader Mao Zedong ordered the artillery
to blast the islet. This strategy, which aims to
demonstrate unswerving determination to defeat Taiwan's
independence, is well justified, for the two sides are
living with an unsigned truce in a civil war, and the
cross-strait issue is an internal affair of China's. Of
course, the pre-war warning must inform the world of
that the artillery war is only to give a lecture to or
to punish the steadfast separatists, so as to confine
the campaign to the region. To the minimum effect,
separatist activists will be deterred; to the maximum,
hopefully, the negotiation with Taipei can be restored
and concluded with treaties that pave the way for
unification.
Second, to inspect US vessels. Contrived by Dr Shih
Chi-you, professor of political science at National
Taiwan University, the strategy aims to intercept the
arms sales from America to Taiwan. Beijing could
proclaim that it takes offense at sales and delivery of
weaponry to Taiwan, considering them provocative and
dangerous; meanwhile it could pledge to stop shipment,
installation and service of these weapons, following the
precedent that the US set in tackling the Cuba crisis;
in July 1962, the Soviet Union deployed long-range
missiles in its communist ally Cuba, but finally had to
defuse them under implacable pressure and war menace
from the US. Further, Beijing could invoke the US-PRC
Joint Communique of August 17, 1982, to make irregular
inspections of the US vessels for weaponry shipment to
Taiwan, and confiscate any weapon detected on board.
The Joint Communique says that "arms sales [by
the US] to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative
or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in
recent years since the establishment of diplomatic
relations between the United States and China, and that
it intends to reduce gradually its sales of arms to
Taiwan, leading over a period of time to a final
resolution". In view of its unjustifiable hegemonic act
in the Galaxy Incident - in July of 1993, the Galaxy
cargo vessel of China departing for Kuwait was
unjustifiably accused by the US of shipping forbidden
materials for chemical weapons (2-hydroxyl sulfide and
thionyl chloride) to Iran - but it was finally
determined to be clear of such cargo. The US thus had no
reason for retaliation.
Third,use of intelligence, espionage, disinformation
and military maneuvers. Intelligence service gathers
political, economic, military and other information that
help to finalize the correct and effective policies or
counter-policies. Espionage is to instigate rebellion
and disorder that interrupts the government's
policy-making. Disinformation misinforms or deceives the
enemy, meanwhile concealing policies and tactics.
Maneuvers should be made a routine exercise as a decoy,
deterrent, and a practice to level up the combat ability
especially of the nuclear submarines, fleet and
long-range missiles. Besides, frequent military
exchanges with developed countries are advisable.
Fourth, to reinforce the navy and air force. In
order to promptly respond to all possible contingency,
to protect overseas Chinese, to convoy ocean
transportation and to guarantee the peaceful unification
of the country, the mainland must sharpen its military
edge in maritime war, including marine supply and
service, long-range airlift capacity, aerial fueling,
offshore naval bases, etc. At the moment, the PLA needs
to curtail its huge land forces and pump more resources
into building the navy, the air force, the marines and
the missile corps. Besides, large-scale adjustments
should be made to the task assignment of the seven
military commands and the three naval fleets.
Fifth, to assassinate hardcore separatists if
needed. In case that the leaders of Taiwan declare
independence or step further toward independence,
Beijing should give thorough consideration to this
strategy that fires missiles to precisely kill major
hardcore separatists in the same way that Russia
disposes of leading Chechen independence fighters. But
Beijing should sound an early warning to Taiwan and the
US prior to the operation, and deploy a fleet of nuclear
submarines about in the Atlantic Ocean to minimize the
risk. Above all, creditable intelligence and precision
of the missile are prerequisites for a successful
operation.
Sixth, to blockade the Taiwan archipelago. This
risky strategy, which learns from the ongoing embargo
that the US has imposed on Cuba, will have little effect
until the PLA has developed a navy and air force
advanced and potent enough to sink US aircraft carriers.
In the case that the Taiwan government declares
independence or purchases menacing weaponry, Beijing
should consider besieging Taiwan with a circle of
battleships and nuclear submarines so as to demonstrate
the steadfast determination to unify China.
Seventh and last, to revise the precondition of
utilizing nuclear weapons. Beijing could hardly afford
the rivalry against the US, the only extant superpower,
unless it threatens using nuclear warheads. That is
because the US would not risk a nuclear war against
China to protect the independence of Taiwan. At this
point, the constant arms sales underway to Taiwan will
justify the revision of the principle of employing
nuclear weapons. Here is a recommended version: in case
of foreign military intervention in China's home affairs
or a direct attack on mainland, China reserves the
rights to use nuclear weapons first and counter-attack
the foreign troops or territory.
Diplomacy to
marginalize Taiwan In the Art of War by Sun
Tzi, diplomacy assumes a fairly high importance, only
secondary to military tactics. At present, Beijing
should aim to establish the broadest international
anti-Taiwan's independence front, by allying with the US
and Japan to marginalize Taiwan. Although China strictly
adheres to the non-alignment policy, it has signed
partnership treaties with several important countries
including Russia and the US. On this basis, the
partnership should be further extended and deepened, if
it is in the interests of China.
China must
recognize the necessity and possibility of seeking an
alliance with the US. Admittedly, the United States is
hitherto the only superpower that has successfully
emerged from the two world wars. Therefore, it is
rational and beneficial to align with the US. A case in
point is Taiwan, which under the aegis of the US has
evolved into one of Asia's Four Dragons - Hong Kong,
Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan have won the renown
for their rapid industrialization between 1960 and 1984.
Ever since mainland China commenced its diplomatic
relationship with the US in the 1970s, the PRC
government has gained vast international recognition and
a permanent membership inside the UN Security Council.
It can be inferred that the alignment with the US today
will facilitate the peaceful unification of China,
expedite China's economic progress and create a benign
environment for China's peaceful emergence. On the part
of the US, losing hold of Taiwan will sacrifice the arms
sales revenue, but the mainland promises to be a bigger
trading partner and an even larger market of arms
demand.
China must maintain the friendship with
Japan for good and all. Although Japan committed
outrageous atrocities in China in the 20th century,
Sino-Japanese relations must not be bogged down by
historical feuding. Likewise, a strong Chinese alliance
with Japan would alienate Taiwan from the international
community, create stable surroundings for China's
economic development, and offset the US influence in
Asia. In return, Beijing will play down its
anti-Japanese outpourings, develop along with Japan into
two locomotives of the Asian economy, and help Japan
gradually move from a losing country of World War II
back to normal.
Aside from marginalization,
Beijing should support Taiwan to participate in some
international organizations under the name of "Taiwan
China" or "Taipei China", in a bid to pacify the
democratic pursuit on the island.
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2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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