SPEAKING FREELY US should play 'one China' card - and
mean it By Henry
Ting
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
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say. Please click hereif you
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US President George W Bush wasted no time
in enunciating his major diplomatic mission for his
second term at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) conference in Chile. His call for mutual security
and trade cooperation with the nations on the Pacific
Rim have been consistently the same US foreign policy
since World War II. His narrow election victory over his
Democratic opponent John Kerry for his second term was
mostly based on his policies of fighting global
terrorism and ensuring national security. He definitely
will spend most of the "political capital" he earned on
these two issues in the next four years.
With all the trumpeted "successes" in the Afghanistan
and Iraq campaigns, his diplomatic team is still trying
to figure out strategies to extract US forces
from the mess in these two areas, and at the same time
to wage an effective war on world terrorism.
It looks as if the US effort in both arenas will not be
an easy walk for the time being. It probably will
require additional military forces and financial resources
to shut down the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan.
From historical experience, such as that of the
United Kingdom in Iraq in 19th century, France in Algeria
in 20th century, and the former Soviet Union in
Afghanistan during the Cold War, all evidence indicates
the vulnerability of a superpower and the futility of its
efforts, without a significantly dependable ally in its
corner. And it is increasingly clear that it will take
more than military might to rid the world of
international terrorism. The outcome of the war in Iraq
will have little effect on these major US goals in
this area. The crucial issues that confront the interests
of the United States are how to deal with nuclear-capable
or nearly capable countries such as North Korea, Iran,
India and Pakistan; all of them could ignite a nuclear
disaster with minimum provocation.
All these important
tasks call for a foreign policy in which the US
aligns itself with all friendly nations to map out comprehensive
plans in establishing a new order for the safety
of the United States. In Asia, nothing is more important
to US interests than a friendly China because of its
geographic locations, increasing military power and
formidable economic strength.
Since the 19th century, when China was
under the exploitation of the European powers and Japan
by unequal treaties, the only modern power at that time
that had a different approach was the United States.
Apparently US interest at the time was seen to be hinged on
a stable and growing China in that region so that all
nations would have an equal chance to compete
for business opportunities. This "open door" policy has
become the US tradition of diplomacy toward China,
which has been demonstrated during both World Wars and the
Cold War. Apparently, the determining factor is that US
interests would be better advanced by more leverage in
commercial activities than by territorial ambitions.
History also made it alarmingly clear
that when America's tradition of partnership with China
in Asia was reversed during the Korean War and the
Vietnam War, America's prestige and national consensus
were greatly compromised. The cruel lesson: if
comprehensive settlements with China before and during those
conflicts had been in place, US interests would have been
better served and its goals would more likely have been
achieved without the two devastating wars. Today the
most dangerous spot in the world is still the Korean
Peninsula, with an isolated communist North Korea posing
a nuclear threat to its neighbors.
As
newly nominated secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is
getting ready to take the helm in Bush's second-term
diplomacy, her plate is undoubtedly full to the brim with
the issues of how to counter global terrorism and
maintain peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula. Two
other flashpoints in Asia also will occupy much of her time:
how to keep peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and
help stabilize the relationship between India and
Pakistan.
In
recent US administrations, a clear pattern of diplomacy toward
China has evolved gradually from president Ronald
Reagan's "six assurances" to president Bill
Clinton's "strategic ambiguity" to currently advocating the
"one-China policy" - that was the principle upon which the US
and China normalized diplomatic relations back in 1979.
From numerous contacts and meetings on Sino-American
relations, the United States has clearly heard that for
the Beijing government, the reunification of China and
Taiwan is the No 1 issue. And Beijing will take as long
as necessary to achieve that ultimate goal, and it will
do so, sooner or later.
At the just-concluded
APEC conference in Chile, Chinese President Hu Jintao
again told President Bush in a private meeting that
China will do anything to facilitate America's fight
against terrorism and defuse the nuclear crisis on the
Korean Peninsula - as long as the US will sincerely in
word and deed uphold the policy of "one China". In
effect, China is crying aloud for the US to stop
assisting Taiwan's independence movement through the
sale of arms to the island, among other things.
Ever since former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui's
pronouncement of two states on each side of the Taiwan
Strait, China and Taiwan have been in a desperate
deadlock, refusing to discuss any meaningful details or
modalities of communication. Each side is biding its
time to play the "American card" to bolster its
position. But through all these years, all US administrations
have been sidetracked in ignoring the fact
that the United States is holding a trump card in its hand to
secure a permanent friendly and democratic China.
In order to have a friendly China in that
strategic region of Asia, the United States needs to
have a government in Beijing advocating a free society
and democratic political system. That's the kind of
government the US wants and needs to deal with. With a
democratic China on the other side of Pacific Ocean,
America's strategy to maintain security and expand
commercial interests would be greatly enhanced.
And it is not an impossible mission to ask
the communist government to loosen its grip of
absolute power over the Chinese people, when already Beijing's
communist leaders are becoming more moderate with each
generation. With the added pressure of calls from Hong
Kong and Taiwan for justice and democracy, direct
suffrage for all Chinese people should not be
unattainable in the foreseeable future.
If the
current US administration could make good use of its
special Taiwan leverage to coordinate a successful
package of an authentic "one China" policy with a
democratic and market-valued system in China, then a
unified Taiwan and China would become the best ally for
the US in terms of protecting human rights and curbing
or halting nuclear weapon proliferation. A democratic
China would be transformed from a strategic competitor
to a friendly partner.
This is probably the best
window of opportunity for the US to take the initiative
to make it happen. It is abundantly clear that a unified
China is in the best interests of the US in pursuing
peace and security, not only in Asia, but also in the
world. With US backing of a unified China in the
foreseeable future, a strong and grateful Beijing would
be willing to extend its hand to the US in any
negotiation topics over trade imbalances, the nuclear
hazard on the Korean Peninsula and other issues.
No nation can fight terrorism and protect
the world alone. The United States, though it is the
only superpower in the world today, would be better off to
have some friends of formidable regional significance
ready to help in maintaining a peaceful and secured
world order.
Henry Ting is a retired
professor and former journalist living in Wilmington,
Delaware, US.
(Copyright 2004 Henry
Ting.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have their
say. Please click
hereif you are interested in
contributing.
